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Maybe I have missed the point here, but surely every horse is supposed to run on its merits, I thought that was what the stewards are supposed to ensure along with trainers.
However the thread and MJ seem to suggest that horses do not run on their merits all the time.
Surely that is cheating/corruption as if the ordinary punter is unaware that a horse is not running on its merits because the owner/trainer don’t want it to win then surely a fraud/criminal offence is taking place as the punter believing it is running on its merits is being conned and cannot win.
Thats probably why they say gambling is a mugs game.
LOLI think the idea is to try and make the "game" more honest NI.
Don’t think it’ll work.
Although the game is far less crooked than you believe it is NI.Who is "they" NI? Gambling is only a "mugs game" if you’re a mug. For those good at interpreting form it’s a "fantastic game"
Value Is EverythingI didn’t post the quote because I wish to see the handicap system scrapped. Quite the reverse. I have invested a lot of time, money, blood, sweat, toil and tears into studying form in handicaps in both codes and as long as there’s plenty of prize money involved I have my biggest bets in decent handicaps. I like how you can knock out a lot of horses straight away with a reasonable degree of confidence.
I posted it to demonstrate that it isn’t just browned-off punters who complain.
The rest of the Johnston interview was fascinating and enlightening. Read it if you can get hold of it.How would these "graded" races work?
Why would any connections of a horse who was NOT rated at the top of the ratings allowed – want to take part?
eg
If there was a race for those rated 80 and lower, why would a horse rated 76 take part?
Are there enough horses rated exactly 80 for there to be enough runners in such a race?
Surely a horse rated 76 would just wait for a race for those rated 76 or lower?Would these "Graded" races go up by a difference of 5? 4? 3? 2? or just 1? ie races for 80 or under, 75 or under 70, 65 etc… for a difference of 5.
If they did not go up by 1 then it would be unfair on those with a consistent profile and also encourage manipulation of ratings in the same way as handicaps currently do.It would all depend on what horses are racing at the time, isn’t that what happens now with handicaps?
In classified races now do all horses have exactly the top rating?
For example in a graded race of say 76 to 80 the 76 horse would receive 4lbs of the 80 horse not run off level weights.
As I say they would be just as if not more competitive than current handicaps, the good thing with a 6lb penalty would have to run in a higher grade rather than the same grade with the penalty.Maybe I have missed the point here, but surely every horse is supposed to run on its merits, I thought that was what the stewards are supposed to ensure along with trainers.
However the thread and MJ seem to suggest that horses do not run on their merits all the time.
Surely that is cheating/corruption as if the ordinary punter is unaware that a horse is not running on its merits because the owner/trainer don’t want it to win then surely a fraud/criminal offence is taking place as the punter believing it is running on its merits is being conned and cannot win.
Thats probably why they say gambling is a mugs game.
LOLI think the idea is to try and make the "game" more honest NI.
Don’t think it’ll work.
Although the game is far less crooked than you believe it is NI.Who is "they" NI? Gambling is only a "mugs game" if you’re a mug. For those good at interpreting form it’s a "fantastic game"
Ginger could you please explain how it is possible to ”interpret form” if horses are not giving their running. Studying form is largely comparing one runner with any number of other horses many of whom may not have been trying?
Studying form in handicaps is not worth the candle.
Maybe I have missed the point here, but surely every horse is supposed to run on its merits, I thought that was what the stewards are supposed to ensure along with trainers.
However the thread and MJ seem to suggest that horses do not run on their merits all the time.
Surely that is cheating/corruption as if the ordinary punter is unaware that a horse is not running on its merits because the owner/trainer don’t want it to win then surely a fraud/criminal offence is taking place as the punter believing it is running on its merits is being conned and cannot win.
Thats probably why they say gambling is a mugs game.
LOLI think the idea is to try and make the "game" more honest NI.
Don’t think it’ll work.
Although the game is far less crooked than you believe it is NI.Who is "they" NI? Gambling is only a "mugs game" if you’re a mug. For those good at interpreting form it’s a "fantastic game"
Ginger could you please explain how it is possible to ”interpret form” if horses are not giving their running. Studying form is largely comparing one runner with any number of other horses many of whom may not have been trying?
Studying form in handicaps is not worth the candle.
How much time do you think I’ve got Woolf?
You might think there’s a lot of not running horses on their merits going on. But it is not the case. Even when trainers try to pull the wool over punters eyes, it is possible to read between the lines. eg Breeding and a horse’s character tell you it will improve at he trip.
Pace is a significant factor. When a horse wins (or even placed) from an unpromising position in a slowly run race it can be marked up (better than distances suggest)… Unless of course, it is a horse with speed who settled well, and has more speed than stayers (at the trip). eg (although not in a handicap) a couple of weeks back when Fanunualter and Pastoral Player (speed) beat Tullius and (amongst others) Carlton House (stamina) when coming from behind in a slowly run race.
Similarly, a horse doing best of those racing prominently may well be worth keeping an eye on if the pace was overly strong.
Trainer form is another aspect. A horse may well run poorly if the trainer is in poor form himself. The horse may well come back to form at rewarding odds, and show its full potential… when the trainer is in good form. eg Heavy Metal (though not a handicap) at Goodwood.
Trainers often run a horse on the wrong ground or distance to try and fool the handicapper. In contrast to many punters, I don’t believe there’s anything wrong with this, as long as (despite conditions not suiting) it is "trying" to win the race. ie The horse may well win the race despite not having conditions to suit, but connections know it will improve when conditions are ideal. Also, punters can see conditions are not ideal and alter their opinions accordingly.
It’s easy to think there is skulduggery going on, when in many cases there are other reasons for a poor showing/return to form.
I personally find that (
by and large
) form works out to the degree you can expect it to work out. ie Of course there can be surprises, but that is only to be expected. NB. The "
by and large
" is put in because I recognise there is some twisting of handicap marks etc going on.
If a punter gets a good form book (eg Timeform) it can point him/her in the right direction and identify a lot of those doing better than their finishing position suggests (for whatever reason that may be).
Studying form in handicaps is worth several "candles" Woolf. However, punters may know the form book backwards, but unfortunately (or
fortunately
for those who can) not all are capable of interpreting it correctly.
"Fortunately" because any gambler is in effect betting against other punters (even when betting with bookmakers). Bookmakers will only allow a certain amount of punters to show a profit.
Value Is EverythingPersonally I get totally fed up with hearing people whinging about handicaps all my betting is done handicaps and it’s profitable but like everything else in life you have to work at it.
Instead of whinging about them simply bet in the non handicaps and claimers if you don’t like the system then struggle with cramped prices and huge over rounds.
BTW I never listen to inside information, tips or any of the rubbish from commentators, journalists or tipsters it’s all just hard work work with a great sense of satisfaction in getting it right. Some of you should try it!Yes, and there are probably an equal number of people who don’t think much of posters making idle boasts with absolutely nothing to back it up.
Gingertipster
It is my family and friends who don’t gamble who say betting is a mugs game. I would say that a lot of the ordinary public who don’t gamble would say the same. I may be wrong though.
I honestly would like to believe you when you say racing is a lot less crooked than I think. I have been following racing for the best part of 45 years and I don’t think it is that less crooked now than it was all those years ago. Look at all the recent scandals, Fallon being the main one.
The only way to make the game more honest is to ban people for life if found of wrong doing. Harsh but it would make for more honesty.
You are probably the very small minority of people who as the time to sit down and study racing to the depths that you go into. I am talking about your average punter who enjoys a bet.
He does not have the time to sit for hours and study breeding, trainers, form at different tracks etc. they enjoy a bet and just want it be run on a fair level playing field, which I am afraid it is not and probably never will be in my lifetime.
One as to accept that where there is a lot of money involved there will always be corruption on some level and racing is no different. All sports fall to it. Cricket being the most recent that springs to mind.
Having said all that I still love the game but do get disillusioned sometimes with some of the rides given to horses. It makes me wonder as the song goes.
Happy punting and I hope you continue to do well.
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