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Following the money

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 20 total)
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  • #1507559
    rob2005
    Participant
    • Total Posts 22

    Which trainers (both codes) do you tend to peak interest in when there is money for their horses?

    I tend to watch out for Gary Moore, Tony Carroll and Mark Prescott. Just wondered who else people watch out for when the money is down!

    I’ll add my betting strategy doesn’t revolve around this it’s just something I take note of!

    #1507561
    Ex RubyLight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1852

    When the money is down, then you’re already too late. Tony Martin is supposed to be a gambling stable, I guess they have been starving over the past 5 years with strike rates of 5% and 7% under both codes.
    Heather Main seems to have a pretty decent strike rate when the cash arrives. Gary Moore’s horses are generally too under priced given their mediocre strike rate. Even though they boast a 13% win ratio over jumps, you’ll find it tough to pick the right track where to follow them.

    #1507976
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2768

    I think there is scope for backing horses that have been punted.
    I put up one recently that I spotted ( through race reading) about twenty mins or so before the race. I noted that much of the value had gone as it had been backed from 28s. It still won at 10/1. Carridadi. A winner is a winner.

    If you are looking to certain trainers then I’d agree with ex Ruby you are too late because every man and his dog are looking for the same thing. And often backing them for no reason too and people latch on to gambles that never were anyway.

    #1508000
    He Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 986

    As he is only 5 miles up the road from me I like to follow a Jim Goldie punt …..and Jim certainly likes a punt , from following the money I remember going to the Scottish grand national and walking in with my dad and looking at the prices for the Scottish champ hurdle …. Going by his price everyman and his dog and the flea on the dog knew Noble Alan was going to win ….profitable day that ….saying that not as profitable as Al Co Scot grand national ….I was dancing a jig that day

    #1508133
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2768

    As this is down here in the trends and research maybe the odd movers when they correspond to some tangible form,or notable factor, could be posted here every now and then…..

    #1508333
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26833

    Following the money is a bad idea unless doing your own research in to whether following the specific trainer’s backed horses actually pays at the reduced odds… which seems pretty unlikely. Following the money using trainers who are known by the betting public to do well with such horses is not worthwhile because it’ll already be factored in to the price available.

    Even in Sam’s example, for bookmakers to offer 28/1 they’d – at that point – need to believe it had only around a 2.5% chance of winning / fair 40/1 shot. (fair 40/1 + bookies mark up = offering 28/1). To still be value @ 10/1 it needs to be in excess of a 9% chance of winning. ie To still be value @ 10/1 the horse needs to have over three and a half times what the bookie’s odds compiler originally thought its actual chance was… Which may or may not be the case for any individual racehorse. However, we’re talking about Following The Money time and time again. In reality odds compilers rarely get it that wrong. Therefore if repeatedly using this technique the chances of overall profit is next to zero.

    value is everything
    #1508346
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2768

    Oscarsman 20/1- 6/1
    1.55 plumpton
    Just putting this up to see what happens.
    By the way I totally agree with you on that score.
    Being selective I think can pay off in this respect. The above is not an example. I know nothing about the horse.

    #1508371
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26833

    Oscarsman finished last after SP of 15/2.

    Particularly difficult horse to price up today and don’t envy bookies odds compilers or private handicappers / punters. One stand out piece of form from 6 runs and that win/good form coming over today’s course and distance on similar ground. However, one good run in 6 makes him inconsistent and trainer is yet to have a winner this season. Oscarsman has had two pulled ups and – between those PU’s – had a wind op since the win. Also made pretty much all when successful and there were other probable front/prominent runners in the race today. Can understand those at the start of the gamble – worth taking a chance @ around 20/1. Sometimes a gamble can come just before returning to form, but once the gamble has taken place the subsequent odds often presume a return to form and so rarely offer value.

    value is everything
    #1508481
    Dynamite21
    Participant
    • Total Posts 225

    “it’s never too late when the gamble’s rivals join in on the action”

    look out for “Karl Burke / Jossie Gordon” runners that attract undue market “attention

    D21 B-)

    #1508491
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2768

    Santon 1.25
    Getalead next race after that have been heavily backed at exeter.

    #1513406
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2775

    I think this is worth bumping with Christmas on the horizon – smaller yards will often have one lined up to give their staff a nice little cash boost for the festive period so i’ve started looking out for the potential plots

    #1513562
    shipithollabolla
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 129

    Well, Jim Boyle has the Xmas money in the satchel.

    Cristal Spirit pummelled into 11/10 from 10/3 in the space of about a minute on the show at Fontwell, wins cosily. Horse was dropped from an opening mark of 120 down to 96 in the space of five quiet runs before today.

    #1513785
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2768

    Ambitious fellow
    Hasn’t run before has been smashed in the betting for the bumper at leopardstown
    33/1- 8/1
    The Banger Doyle
    Has also seen support.

    #1514024
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2768

    The Banger Doyle
    Won 4/1

    Newcastle 4.30
    Magical wish
    25/1 into 9/1

    #1514029
    sporting sam
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2768

    Debawtry
    Newcastle 5pm
    25/1—-26/1
    501 days off the track.
    Currently 33/1
    Lord of the glenn also backed

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