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Flat season just around the corner. <!– s:D –>
<!– s:D –> <!– s:D –><!– s:D –> Anyone have any thoughts or interesting horses they wish to share? I’ve gone through the back end maidens and found 10 nice 2yos that I hope will do well in 2011. Apologies for the formatting, I did this on notepad and cant make it look any better on here.
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Carlton House</b> – Demolished his maiden field at Newbury. Looks a very resolute, galloping grinder who ran as straight as a gun
barrel that day. He should be very competitive at middle distances on galloping tracks this year. The Queen must be looking forward to this one!<b>Rumh</b> – Bit of a wildcard considering Godolphins patchy recent record with horses from 2 to 3. But I like the way she travelled and quickened in a Wolves maiden. Looks to have a round action that hits the ground hard so she may not want it to too firm. She didn’t appear to let herself down too much on the polytrack surface either. But the raw ability looks there.
<b>Handassa</b> – Made mincemeat of her rivals on debut at The Curragh when quickening nicely. Looks to have loads, exciting.
<b>Desert Law</b> – Travelled really well and won a decent maiden on the Champions Day card with minimal fuss. Form franked since.
Pattern horse this year.<b>Al Kazeem</b> – Easily beat horses from powerful yards to win a Newbury maiden that was competitive going by the starting prices. His action suggests he’ll be more suited to good ground so this pleasing on what for me was soft ground that day. Travelled really well and showed a good attitude when given a few smacks inside the final furlong. Looks to be improving with racing.
<b>History Note</b> – John Oxx is never too hard on his 2yos so when they win on debut I take note. Went through a gap without any hesitation and won a duel without Berry ever using his whip. Looks talented.
<b>What About You</b> – Another Wolves maiden! Blew them away with early speed, always a useful trait in a sprinter, the rest never got a look in.The second that day has won 3 of its next 4 and is now rated 85. So looks well handicapped off 86, in a top notch yard. Should win races.
<b>Dogs May Bark</b> – May ultimately prove a handicapper but there was a lot to like about the resolution he showed over the last 2 demanding furlongs of the Rowley Mile on soft ground considering it was his first visit to the racetrack and he finished it out going away. Ran a lot better than the yard expected given its a Chapple-Hyam horse at 16/1. Formbook reports him as scopey and strong.
<b>Zain Shamardal</b> – Didn’t help himself when reefing and pulling for the first half of a fast and furious Kempton maiden
, but kept finding and finding and would have won in another 50 yards. Well backed that day, the winner Splash Point has won the UAE Guineas at Meydan since then. The third, Failasoof went on to win a Lingfield maiden. Zain Shamardal should win in 2011.<b>Yaseer</b> – This was a Steve Mellish notebook horse after his run at Newbury, so I stole him. Loved his run at Kempton where he stalked the field and disappeared when Baker pushed the button. Very classy. This maiden has produced 4 winners since.
Mr Wilson have you been dusting off your speed figures?
Got an ante post bet on world domination for the derby without even seeing him so i hope he has a good season. Thinking abot going to the derby again this year, had the best day ever last year, had my biggest winner yet on workforce.
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Cav, excellent post.
I’ve had a little look back at some notes last year and we both have highlighted the same horse; Dogs May Bark.
I thought this horse would have probably gone under the radar from a lot of people but I guess not!
He could make the transition into Group level but from my expierance with backend 2yos with a single win to their name is that they tend to go three or four races without doing much due to being over rated and find themselves running well in a top handicap, I think this horse could possibly pick up a Britannia at Royal Ascot but definatly an early season 0-105 in April/May and we’ll know more about him then.
What your thoughts on his ideal trip?
One that interests me is Manhaj. By Medicean out of a Danehill mare.
Raced twice in France as a 2 year old and won twice but I don’t think that what he has beaten has done much.
However, his trainer John Hammond has entered him for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and I could be wrong but I cannot recall seeing a John Hammond colt entered for this race in the last few years. Maybe he has had a good winter with improvement to follow.
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Our first race of note this year, the early start to the flat season in Ireland has already thrown up a decent performance, Defining Year touched off Adilapour in a tight battle as the pair drew clear of late closer Shelley Beach who came from well of the pace.
I have the winner Defining Year running to a speed rating of 95.21, having adjusted the par for an early season (April-May) 3yo Listed race this brings his rating up to Listed standard of 97.12 suggesting he’s capable of winning a race of such calibure in the coming weeks although is that true? I think it’s more of a reflection on the runner ups ability if anything whilst I think Defining Year would have a decent crack at landing a handicap having him off a new mark off 103 we’ll see how much the Irish handicapper thinks of him (Currently on 92).
The runner up has a Derby entry and as unrealistic as that entry may sound at this stage the horse looks to have some ability and was fighting back against the eventual winner close towards the line, this horse is going to be undoubtedly short next time out though would Oxx send this to one of the Derby trials in the coming months? no it’s not a Derby horse but you know Aidan leaves his undercooked in the trials and there is always room for an upset with decent money up for grabs although this talk on the first card of the season is optimistic.
It’s a race that could provide some winners to get the season underway in the weeks to come
Very good, Mr Wilson. I’ll keep a note of the horses you mention. Thanks, threenaps. Manhaj, you heard it here first.
My horses are
CONDUCT.Is 2 from 2 winning a maiden and handicap he looks a group winner in the making
WONDER OF WONDERS.2nd on debut but lost to a horse who had a run was finishing very strong in that race a awesome pedigree.1m4 will see her at her best
It is indeed an exciting time, Cav. The two I am most looking forward to are Brick Red, who should make the transition from top handicapper to minor Pattern-race performer at some stage this year, and Pearl Ice, who could be a very useful sprinter. He has got a mark of 89, but with any luck, he won’t be running in handicaps for too long.
Obviously, like everyone else, I am looking forward to seeing how Frankel has progressed.
I am also quite sweet on the chances of Richard Hannon’s Memory winning the 1,000 Guineas. So, I will be keeping a keen eye on her.
Of the older crop, Workforce and Cape Blanco look set to cross swords at some time. It will be fascinating to see how both do against the younger generation.
A lot of interest ( mine’s included ) will be directed to Aiden O’Brien’s latest recruit, So You Think, last season’s top-rated Australian runner. He’s a class animal, and he’s sure to be in the shake-up come the big middle distance races in the summer.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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So You Think and Frankel are the obvious candidates for 2011. No other horses create more excitement for me at this stage of the season. It will be extremely interesting to see what Mr O’Brien can do with So You Think. Getting any improvement from a Bart Cummings horse is nigh on impossible.
Good spot with
Yaseer
, Cav. He’s a scopy son of Dansili and Tadris (who won three times as a three year old), who comes from one of Sheikh Hamdans best families – a great grandson of Height of Fashion.
Perhaps because he is bred to be a classic three year old, absolutely nothing was expected on his debut at Newbury on sticky ground. Despite the market indifference, he belied 40/1 odds to finish second to the Stoute Derby horse Carlton House. He didn’t have a clue what horse racing was all about and the jockey was notably easy on the colt in the closing stages. He’s a beautiful mover.
Yaseer won next time out at Kempton as expected, but for me, this backend maiden was the race which showed that Marcus has charge of a good horse once again.
I’m not one for backing horses from Kingsdown before June/July, but I have a strong feeling Marcus will be much, much busier this year early doors, after three very quiet years.
Look like that WONDER OF WONDERS and APACHE will both run in maiden races this week.Both horses impressed in there only starts last year.Be intresting to see how they get on.
Obviously Wonder of Wonders is a horse i have a very keen eye for.
Apache owned by Ann Marie O Brien…if they thought he was good he would have changed ownership( may be a silly little point)..ran well for a long way.
As ever the winter is as important as anything they did on the track last year
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Will be funny if the horse doesn’t win his maiden, I’ve heard it from people non stop about this Notable Graduate wonder what excuse they’d come up with – just cant see it myself.
If the horse gets to the Derby, BIG if then it’s obvious he has class, every Derby runner has class.
Why not run the horse in the Ballysax? if it’s that good. You won’t get any information out of winning Sundays maiden.
Information? Surely you would want to educate the horse, he has only ran once.
JohnJ
WONDER OF WONDERS.2nd on debut but lost to a horse who had a run was finishing very strong in that race a awesome pedigree.1m4 will see her at her best
She runs today in the opening race at Leopardstown in a maiden that O’Brien has pretty much farmed in recent years. With his fillies being as forward as they seemingly are, I’d say defeat is almost out of the question. Her debut 2nd on heavy was a fine effort for a daughter of Kingmambo whose progeny loath ground with a bit of cut.
I’d expect to see West Wind win the 4.00 as well in another race that O’Brien invariably wins or hits the bar at the very least.
John Oxx has a high strikerate in the month of March over the past 4 seasons, especially with his 3yos, while Prendergast’s usually need the run. Cocozza has a big chance in the 3.00 where only Dunboyne Express and himself can surely win.
Prendergast; 0-6 with 3yos (0-10 overall) 2007, 2-7 (2-10) 2008, 1-8 (2-10) 2009, 1-12 (1-16) 2010
Oxx; 3-7 (3-7) 2007, 0-6 (0-8) 2008, 2-7 (2-7) 2009, 1-4 (1-6) 2010
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