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Sorry Andrew, of course it’s 8 of 11.
And if you use last 22 runs its 9 low, 6 med & 7 high or 9/22 low. More than half of the runners start from a single figure draw anyway.
If you want to use a shorter sample why not pick the couple of years when it was low 0% and high 100%?
Skew the figures all you want, ignore results that don’t fit your idea and don’t read too much into results that do, ignore other more meaningful stats, whatever.
I’m just been saying you’re attaching too much importance to this aspect, in my opinion, many others do and the bookies dock your value acordingly which means better value can be found elsewhere. And some races are best watched rather than punted on.
But that’s what racing is all about, opinions, gambling and pocket talking.
Sorry Andrew, of course it’s 8 of 11.
And if you use last 22 runs its 9 low, 6 med & 7 high or 9/22 low. More than half of the runners start from a single figure draw anyway.
If you want to use a shorter sample why not pick the couple of years when it was low 0% and high 100%?
Skew the figures all you want, ignore results that don’t fit your idea and don’t read too much into results that do, ignore other more meaningful stats, whatever.
I’m just been saying you’re attaching too much importance to this aspect, in my opinion, many others do and the bookies dock your value acordingly which means better value can be found elsewhere. And some races are best watched rather than punted on.
But that’s what racing is all about, opinions, gambling and pocket talking.
SBerry,
If you start from almost any other point to your chosen time… It works out that low numbers are favoured. That fact tells you whether it is mine or your figures that are "skewed".
Yes, sometimes bookmakers do over-do the effects of the draw (even at Chester). My first main bet in this year’s race was Harrison’s Cave, both "poorly drawn" in stall 15 and a "hold up horse" who needed luck in running, but on monday night 16/1 (SP 11/2 co fav) was worth taking a chance with both draw and pace. I’m not saying "draw" is the be all and end all, it’s just one of many significant factors that need to be allowed for in assessing the race/value. However, any punter not taking much notice of draw is unlikely to back enough value horses. For sure, one day it may even pay to concentrate on "poorly drawn" horses at this meeting, because every year more punters go over to backing nothing but low draws – making high numbers "value". But that time is yet to come.
Value Is Everything
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