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I would say realism is an important word ie:-
-Some people are naturally talented and some are not,relating it to football its fair to say a premier league player as talent,he can see it in his pay packet,others play football all their life and are lucky if they can get in the pub 11, nothing wrong with that as long as they see it has leisure,same in punting terms!!
-If you haven`t got a feel for successful punting it`s unlikely a set of rules will turn you into a profitable punter,however, it might slow down your losses, methology could cloud your vision , whilst i agree that tracking your bets is a good idea i couldn`t agree with 2,3 or 4!!
Identifying value….. is a must,get 11/10 a throw of a coin and you should be ahead of the game,get 10/11 and you will soon be on the wrong side,recognising value is part of the parcel!
Self belief….. is important,when i put up MONTE ALTO a few weeks back for the pricewise thread i really believed in my arguments,jockey got their too soon and got collared in shadows of the post,horse comes out with an higher mark and wins one of the big h`caps yesterday,compensation !!
Move on……Everyone will go through phases of getting beat in photos or receiving a poor ride, don`t let it effect you as luck balances out.
Open your mind…..Someone said you should restrict the amount of bets you place,well it might work for some but not others,however, more important is choice,someone else said we have 6000 races a year in UK,why restrict yourself to them, theirs the same amount in France, a thousand or so in Germany and many more world wide……look for opportunities!!
Understanding foreign races…..in order to give yourself a better chance try and get the gyst of betting abroad, especially France, remember the Japs betting the Jolly in last years “Arc“, what price was he 1,3, one doesn`t need to think when a horse that should be 3,0 is taking out 76% from a 116% book……you play the rest at PMU prices, don`t be swayed by UK Bookies,take last weekend:-
-PASSAGE OF TIME UK Bookie win odds where 5,0 …..paid 3,6 a PLACE on the track, you will find Bookies dump into the win pool but not the place pool!
TAX FREE UK odds 2,0, PMU paid 2,2 and 1,6 a place!
VEREEVES was only 5,3 on the PMU but was available at 8,0 in the shops,how that price came about i will never understand.
Look for weakness in your opponent, in this case the Bookmakers, they make a lot of mistakes in France, in sport why bet English leagues when the likes of Laddies price up Scandanavian football to lower over-rounds and are less informed, why bet NBA when Euroleague is less competitive etc,etc!
Without logic, a nose and a feel for the game your chances are limited!
Hi gang
my 6 rules are—–>
1. Select solvable races to study.
2. Develop a method of isolating the main contenders.
3. Ensure the first 2 rules are achieved with the minimum of fuss.
4. Allow plenty of time to intrepret the data of your chosen races.
5. Gain personal knowledge about the nature of horses & racing activities.
6. Always try to bet within a favourable risk/reward ratio.Not to mention a good helping of psychological glue to hold it all together.
byefrom
carlisle1. Keep a record of all bets and analyse exhaustively.
2. Work to a structured staking system and betting bank.
3. Write down goals (how much you plan to win and by when)
and then monitor your progress carefully.
4. Write down, in detail, your selection methodology. If you haven’t got one you’re only guessing and, unless you are abnormally talented, you will fail.
5. Work very, very, very hard at it. The harder you work, within reason, the more successful you will be.Discuss….
Don’t know why so many here disagree about 3. I think it’s important to set goals. I start with small stakes and the more I win the more I bet. When I reach my goal I withdraw the money and start again with small stakes.
Nothing wrong with that it’s setting goals based on a time period that I think people have problems with.
I understand and you are right, nobody should get stressed unless you need the money to pay your next rent.
I maintain a separate bank account for my betting to which I used to add a set amount each month. Now I am taking my investing more seriously I am fortunate that I have not now needed to "top it up" for over two years now. I don’t aim to live off my betting but I use it to pay for holidays and other ‘extras’
In terms of setting a target – if I am going racing as a punter (as opposed to writing about it) my aim is to make a 6-10% profit on my investments.
1. Select solvable races to study.
2. Develop a method of isolating the main contenders.
3. Ensure the first 2 rules are achieved with the minimum of fussLOL. I half expected rule 4 to be
and always follow rule 3
Hi clivex
I think rule 3 is no laughing matter, but I’m glad you enjoyed it, it cannot be over emphasized. You took that sledgehammer like it was a sponge mallet mate.
byefrom
carlisleWallace betting to 116% would mean a take out of 13.8%, in the rules and regs theirs a section which says win/place bets are subject to a 12.04% takeout and theirs no tax unless the price is over 120,0, when i tot up whats before me on the pmu screen i would average out at 116%, i know the PMU reduced take outs at the end of 2006, i find French racing much more interesting than UK nowdays, its certainly easier to get a good return!!
1. Write down all bets
The most important one, without which all else fails. Percentage of punters that do, about 1% or less. Stops you kidding yourself that you are "breaking even". Less sure about analysing them- always mean to but seldom do in any systematic way.2. Separate your betting money.
The best thing I ever did after No. 1.
Releases you from the tyranny of worrying about losses, and avoids the agony of understaking on a winner because of lack of funds.Have a dedicated bank account and debit card just for betting, and take your racing expenses out of this account also. If you keep having to top it up, maybe they’re right about analysing No. 1!3. Treat betting as one long unending series of events you can bet on, so that winning on any particular day or even week is unimportant. Stops you having silly bets just because your well thought out selection gets done a snot in the Ayr Gold Cup, for instance. A hard rule to follow, but vital.
4. Specialise
Totally agree with this one- how anybody can bet on horses, football, rugby, golf, etc with success is beyond me. a rule I frequently break, but usually only to small stakes. Vital to specialise within racing also unless you are full-time.5. Don’t get obsessive about it.
I have seen a few brilliant guys just get too obsessed with the game to the exclusion of all else. Don’t neglect the rest of your life, take breaks away from it, play golf, whatever. You’ll be fresher when you get back to it.Excellent stuff Carvill’s. As you hint sticking to them is the acid test of mettle and character but does get easier the longer you ‘stick’ imo.
Hi gang
I think, "writing down all of your bets & keeping the betting money separate" or absolute givens. It’s like say a business needs a book keeper.
It does take genius, to satisfy those rules.
byefrom
carlisleHi
An account via Betfair proved to be a helpful to my betting. When I started this account I didn’t realise that my betting would actually end up a small earner ! (I’ve been in the black now for 4 years).I agree records are important: your betfair account detail is always there as a timely reminder. I find it compels me to be disciplined because I hated the action of needing to put in more funds.
Since using them I have given up exotic type bets; instead I have used the opportunity for wins & occasionally place bets only. The usual bet is a win. Lays for me are just too risky.There’s my five:
1) Selection methodology ( I use Trainer’s Trace * as in the System thread. I like good quality handicaps and wide open betting opportunities).
2) Always use sensible level stake. (not adverse to backing 2 or 3 in same race for win, if odds permit. Single place only bets occasionally used).
3) Regularly take out profits from the account ( I find that increase staking can cause misjudgements)
4) Do not waste every waking hour with racing ( a couple of hours each evening identifying the following days possible selections. Perhaps additional time during racing to identfy market moves etc).
5) Do not play up winnings or chase losses. (small profits during racing often seem puny but once the days’ racing is over many a punter would love to have their shirts on their backs).* Just a note about the selection procedure. I believe that a Trainer’s performance can best be measured when their runners are being strongly bet. The arguement is that these runners are out to win and are a reliable guide to a Trainer’s ability and current form. I solely use this information as my selection platform.
So there you have it.
Hi Alexander
that was an interesting comment about trainers performance stats.
With regard to stake money and winning, if punters take their betting seriously then it’s all about increasing the bank and subsequent level of stake units.
What I call "success built upon success". Look into my fish eyes…..
5K bet should hold the same significance as a £5 decision.When they are both 2% of your bank. Taking money out of the pot is like Samson having a number one.
Not to mention a sack, back and crack!
byefrom
carlisleTony25, interesting what you say about betting on French racing on the PMU. I wonder what would happen in the UK if the takeout on all pools was fixed at say 10%.
Wallace, I think the Bookies would go running to the courts to prevent lowering of takeouts as the Tote have a monopol on Pool bets…unfair trading unlike:-
I bet Laddies where very happy that only 6 Bookies turned up at Kempton yesterday, those 125-130% Books make sad reading, its all going downhill very fast!!
Hi Prufrock
if it’s HARD work it’s doomed, ones methods need to efficient and borely effective. We should deal with standardised, repeatable, predictable patterns. No more than 3 hours graft a day.
For the most part specialization is unneccessary, we live in a computer age…….. let that take the strain. Just develop various approaches/interpretations.
A big BANK is irrelevent, if you cannot win with fivers you will not win with grands. Let your success grow your bank.
I have always liked you mate.
byefrom
carlisle
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