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First Every Time 2003

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  • #1055
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    I’ve started the year with this as a new thread.

    For anybody who doesn’t know it, this is a couch punters system.

    Back the unnamed favourite in the first race at every meeting both here and in Ireland.  If there is a joint or a co favourite then the lowest number.  In strict time order and if two times are the same then alphabetically.

    I’ve taken a lot of note of Mr E’s words of wisdom on the previous thread about filters and staking plans, so this year I’m going to use both level stakes and rolling doubles.  Also I’m analysing a lot of data about these races to see if we can put some filters into place.   I’m also going to go back over the whole of last year and see what that comes up with.  When I started in August, both that month and September gave a good profit just with level stakes.   It may have been something to do withthe flat being in full swing, or perhaps it was just a coincidence.  Only time and some research will tell.

    Anyway this month we have as follows…

    Wed   L…..L…..L…..L<br>Thur    13/8…..L<br>Fri        L…..6/4<br>Sat       9/4…..L…..2/1

    Stakes 11  Returns  LS  11.38   RD  8.13

    Let hope first race tomorrow is a winner!

    Ian C

    #44238
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Not the time to be using this system!!

    Up to yesterday, Saturday we have one race each Monday to Friday all losers plus three losers Saturday!

    Eight on the trot (were the favourites even trotting?) – but it will get better.

    Apart from level stakes and rolling doubles I’ve now included "+ 1 point until a win, then back to one".  Does this have a proper name and if so what please?  This is the sort of staking plan that can scare you s**tless if the losing run is a long one.  It maybe that with short prices this does not work so well.  Anyway i’ve played around with my spread sheet and have all three on it, so now I can go back over last year and see what would have happened.

    Back to January  to date Stakes 19  Returns LS 11.38 & RD 8.13<br>On "+1"  Stakes 63  Returns  32.88

    Post again next weekend.

    IanC

    #44240
    MrE
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2149

    Hi Ian, it doesn’t look promising does it. If your playing with short prices, you MUST get far better than a 50% SR. With a bad SR, even the Rolling Doubles won’t pull you outa the poo, they cant help because they require 2/3 winners together to produce a decent enough return and you aint getting that at present….. I’d think about giving it a rest until the conditions improve. Watch ’em by all means but I think you’d be wise to keep your money well and truly glued in your wallet….. keep plugging away and enjoy it…….  :biggrin: :biggrin:

    MrE

    #44242
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    As Mr E says..keep plugging away.   It’s a good job that this can be done retrospectively instead of having to pick them or else the losing run really would drive you to suicide.  But as Pocket Rocket says, the sun’s always shining behind the clouds.

    I was only putting a few bob on this system until sometime in October when things started to go downhill.

    Anyway to bring things upto date.

    Sun (12)   L<br>Mon (13)   L   L   L<br>Tue (14)  L   L   1/3<br>Wed (15) L   L   3/1   4/11<br>Thu (16)   L   L   1/3<br>Fri (17)   L   L   L<br>Sat (18)   L   1/2   L   4/1   L   L   L<br>Sun (19)  L

    Stakes 44  Returns 25.91 for LS  & 13.58 for RD’s

    If you had the b***s to go "+1 ’til a win"  then you would have staked 188 for a return of 87.74

    IanC

    (Edited by IanC at 1:35 pm on Jan. 20, 2003)

    #44243
    JAR
    Member
    • Total Posts 188

    Hi<br>I think that with this or any type of system that requires a high strike rate to work, you must only bet when the weather is fine, dry and constant.<br>Changeable weather wet,dry,wet,windy etc. usually means you will not achieve a high strike rate and this may ruin profits in the long run.<br>:cool:

    #44244
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    First in reply to JAR

    John, couldn’t agree more with you.  I started this last summer & August & September gave some good profits.  If you look back on my other thread you’ll see what I mean.  That may well ahve had something to do with the weather and the fact that the flat was in full swing.

    I’m just finishing a spread sheet that will do all sorts of things for me, then I can put all of 2002 in to see if there is a seansonal pattern of any sort.

    To bring things up tp date….

    Mon (20)   7/2<br>Tue (21)    L   3/1<br>Wed (22)   L  L<br>Thur (23)   11/8  L   L  4/11 <br>Fri   (24)    9/2  L  2/1<br>Sat  (25)    27/10  L   L   L   L

    <br>Stakes 61  Returns  LS 50.34  RD’s  32.18<br>"+1 to winner"   Stakes   223    Returns   144.65

    <br>Ian C

    (Edited by IanC at 10:50 pm on Jan. 26, 2003)

    #44246
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    A flurry at the end of the month has improved things slightly, so we’ve finished slightly better than expected but still at a minus.

    To finish the month off…

    Su  26   4/7<br>Mo  27  L   L   2/9<br>Tu  28  5/4  L  1/1  1/1<br>We 29  10/11  L  L<br>Th  30  L   5/4  3/1<br>Fr  31  11/4

    Stats for the month

    26 winners from 76  SR 34.2%

    Level Stakes     Stakes  76  Ret  71.3  ROI  -6.81%<br>Rolling Doubles  Stakes  75  Ret  66.75  ROI  – 12.17%<br>+1 to win           Stakes  252  Returns  183.09  ROI  -27.34%

    Lets see what February brings.

    <br>Ian C

    #44247
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Hi Ian,

    Been watching this system for ages … Do you think you might get more success if you eliminated any HCP race from your selections. The reason I’m suggesting that is that I used to do a similar system but it was the un-named favourite in the first Non-HCP race on the card. Could prove more profitable mate, especially with the rolling doubles.

    #44249
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Hi Dave

    You might well be right.  I’m spending my lunchbreaks at work working on a spread sheet that will work with about five staking plans and 8 other bits of race data.  I hope to have it finished in a weeks time so I will be able to analyse mine and other systems quite easily.

    February –

    Sat 1   L   L   L   1/3   10/11   8/11   L<br>Sun 2  6/4<br>Mon 3   L   L<br>Tue  4  L   L<br>Wed 5   L<br>Thur 6   L   L   L<br>Fri  7  11/10   L   L<br>Sat 8   L   5/2   L   6/4   11/4   5/4<br>Sun 9  L

    SR  9/26<br>LS  St 26  Ret  21.57<br>RD  St 25  Ret 23.67<br>+1 win   St 76  Ret  57.87

    <br>Ian C<br>

    #44252
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    To bring things up to date

    Mon 10  L   L   L<br>Tue 11   L   L   4/1<br>Wed 12  L   L   L   L<br>Thu 13   L   L   5/2   L<br>Fri 14     L   L<br>Sat 15   L   L   1/1   L   11/4<br>Sun   4/5

    <br>Ls to date  Stakes  48  returns  37.62<br>Rd to date  Stakes 47   returns  30.42<br>+1 to win    Stakes 156   returns  138.67

    <br>Lets hope for a better week.

    <br>Ian C<br>

    #44253
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Hi there

    At the moment this system isn’t going anywhere, but lets persevere.

    Postings to date

    Mon 17  L  L<br>Tue 18   7/2<br>Wed  19  L   L<br>Thur  20   L  L<br>Fri   21  L  L<br>Sat  22   L   L   9/4   L<br>Sun  23  L  L  L  L<br>Mon  24   L  L  8/13

    Level stakes   Stakes  68  Returns   46.99

    Soon be March!!!

    Ian C<br>

    #44254
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Finishing February off..

    Tues  25  L   9/2   8/13<br>Wed  26   L  L  L  11/8<br>Thur   27  L  2/5  L  L<br>Fri     28   L   4/1   9/2

    Stas for month

    Sr  23/82  =  28.04%

    Level stakes  Stakes  82  Ret 68.38  -16.61 ROI<br>Rolling doubles  Stakes 81  Returns  66.80  -17.53  ROI<br>+1 to win  Stakes  271  returns  244.76   -9.68  ROI

    Ian C

    #44255
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Not been around for a while but here’s March to 14th.

    1     8/13   L   11/10   1/1   1/2   L   8/15<br>2     1/8   L   5/6   1/1<br>3     L   L   L<br>4     L   11/8   4/11<br>5     7/2  2/1   1/5   9/4<br>6     L   L   L   4/6<br>7     L   L   L<br>8     L   L   L   3/1   L<br>9     L<br>10     1/4   L   8/11<br>11     11/2   3/1   L<br>12     100/30   L<br>13     L   L   L<br>14     5/6   L   4/1

    <br>That’s 23/48 SR= 47.9%<br>Level Stakes 48  Returns 59.71   ROI 24.39%<br>Rolling Doubles  St 47 Ret 80.19<br>+1 to win  St  104  Ret  124.57<br>1000 bank with 10% every time  1840.87

    A better month than for a long time  – can it last???<br>

    #44256
    IanC
    Member
    • Total Posts 74

    Rest of March

    15   11/4   6/4   1/1   11/10   L<br>16   L   L   2/5   1/2<br>17   L   5/4   L   L   L   L<br>18   4/7   L   1/1<br>19   L   L   L<br>20   L   1/2   L   9/10<br>21   L   7/4   L<br>22   4/1   L   L   6/4   L   L<br>23   7/2   8/15   11/8   L<br>24   1/2   4/5   L<br>25   10/11   13/8   4/7<br>26   8/13   L   5/2   15/8<br>27   9/4   L   1/6<br>28   L   L   L<br>29   L   3/1   15/8   L   4/9   1/1<br>30   L<br>31   8/13   L   L

    55 FROM 112  sr  49.1%<br>LS  Stakes 112  Returns  134.58   ROI  20.1%<br>Rolling Doubles  St  111   Ret  178.33<br>+1 to win   St  222   Ret  270.97

    £1000 Bank<br>2.5%    1631.74<br>5%       2313.35<br>10%     3180.18

    Ian C

      <br>

    #44257
    Matron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5860

    Good end to the month for you Ian.

    Bet you glad you stuck with it.

    Regards- Matron<br>:cool:

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