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I’ve started the year with this as a new thread.
For anybody who doesn’t know it, this is a couch punters system.
Back the unnamed favourite in the first race at every meeting both here and in Ireland. If there is a joint or a co favourite then the lowest number. In strict time order and if two times are the same then alphabetically.
I’ve taken a lot of note of Mr E’s words of wisdom on the previous thread about filters and staking plans, so this year I’m going to use both level stakes and rolling doubles. Also I’m analysing a lot of data about these races to see if we can put some filters into place. I’m also going to go back over the whole of last year and see what that comes up with. When I started in August, both that month and September gave a good profit just with level stakes. It may have been something to do withthe flat being in full swing, or perhaps it was just a coincidence. Only time and some research will tell.
Anyway this month we have as follows…
Wed L…..L…..L…..L<br>Thur 13/8…..L<br>Fri L…..6/4<br>Sat 9/4…..L…..2/1
Stakes 11 Returns LS 11.38 RD 8.13
Let hope first race tomorrow is a winner!
Ian C
Not the time to be using this system!!
Up to yesterday, Saturday we have one race each Monday to Friday all losers plus three losers Saturday!
Eight on the trot (were the favourites even trotting?) – but it will get better.
Apart from level stakes and rolling doubles I’ve now included "+ 1 point until a win, then back to one". Does this have a proper name and if so what please? This is the sort of staking plan that can scare you s**tless if the losing run is a long one. It maybe that with short prices this does not work so well. Anyway i’ve played around with my spread sheet and have all three on it, so now I can go back over last year and see what would have happened.
Back to January to date Stakes 19 Returns LS 11.38 & RD 8.13<br>On "+1" Stakes 63 Returns 32.88
Post again next weekend.
IanC
Hi Ian, it doesn’t look promising does it. If your playing with short prices, you MUST get far better than a 50% SR. With a bad SR, even the Rolling Doubles won’t pull you outa the poo, they cant help because they require 2/3 winners together to produce a decent enough return and you aint getting that at present….. I’d think about giving it a rest until the conditions improve. Watch ’em by all means but I think you’d be wise to keep your money well and truly glued in your wallet….. keep plugging away and enjoy it…….  :biggrin: :biggrin:
MrE
As Mr E says..keep plugging away.  It’s a good job that this can be done retrospectively instead of having to pick them or else the losing run really would drive you to suicide.  But as Pocket Rocket says, the sun’s always shining behind the clouds.
I was only putting a few bob on this system until sometime in October when things started to go downhill.
Anyway to bring things upto date.
Sun (12)  L<br>Mon (13)  L  L  L<br>Tue (14)  L  L  1/3<br>Wed (15) L  L  3/1  4/11<br>Thu (16)  L  L  1/3<br>Fri (17)  L  L  L<br>Sat (18)  L  1/2  L  4/1  L  L  L<br>Sun (19)  L
Stakes 44  Returns 25.91 for LS  & 13.58 for RD’s
If you had the b***s to go "+1 ’til a win"  then you would have staked 188 for a return of 87.74
IanC
(Edited by IanC at 1:35 pm on Jan. 20, 2003)
Hi<br>I think that with this or any type of system that requires a high strike rate to work, you must only bet when the weather is fine, dry and constant.<br>Changeable weather wet,dry,wet,windy etc. usually means you will not achieve a high strike rate and this may ruin profits in the long run.<br>:cool:
First in reply to JAR
John, couldn’t agree more with you.  I started this last summer & August & September gave some good profits.  If you look back on my other thread you’ll see what I mean.  That may well ahve had something to do with the weather and the fact that the flat was in full swing.
I’m just finishing a spread sheet that will do all sorts of things for me, then I can put all of 2002 in to see if there is a seansonal pattern of any sort.
To bring things up tp date….
Mon (20)  7/2<br>Tue (21)   L  3/1<br>Wed (22)  L  L<br>Thur (23)  11/8  L  L  4/11 <br>Fri  (24)   9/2  L  2/1<br>Sat  (25)   27/10  L  L  L  L
<br>Stakes 61 Returns LS 50.34 RD’s 32.18<br>"+1 to winner" Stakes 223 Returns 144.65
<br>Ian C
(Edited by IanC at 10:50 pm on Jan. 26, 2003)
A flurry at the end of the month has improved things slightly, so we’ve finished slightly better than expected but still at a minus.
To finish the month off…
Su 26 4/7<br>Mo 27 L L 2/9<br>Tu 28 5/4 L 1/1 1/1<br>We 29 10/11 L L<br>Th 30 L 5/4 3/1<br>Fr 31 11/4
Stats for the month
26 winners from 76 SR 34.2%
Level Stakes Stakes 76 Ret 71.3 ROI -6.81%<br>Rolling Doubles Stakes 75 Ret 66.75 ROI – 12.17%<br>+1 to win Stakes 252 Returns 183.09 ROI -27.34%
Lets see what February brings.
<br>Ian C
Hi Ian,
Been watching this system for ages … Do you think you might get more success if you eliminated any HCP race from your selections. The reason I’m suggesting that is that I used to do a similar system but it was the un-named favourite in the first Non-HCP race on the card. Could prove more profitable mate, especially with the rolling doubles.
Hi Dave
You might well be right. I’m spending my lunchbreaks at work working on a spread sheet that will work with about five staking plans and 8 other bits of race data. I hope to have it finished in a weeks time so I will be able to analyse mine and other systems quite easily.
February –
Sat 1 L L L 1/3 10/11 8/11 L<br>Sun 2 6/4<br>Mon 3 L L<br>Tue 4 L L<br>Wed 5 L<br>Thur 6 L L L<br>Fri 7 11/10 L L<br>Sat 8 L 5/2 L 6/4 11/4 5/4<br>Sun 9 L
SR 9/26<br>LS St 26 Ret 21.57<br>RD St 25 Ret 23.67<br>+1 win St 76 Ret 57.87
<br>Ian C<br>
To bring things up to date
Mon 10 L L L<br>Tue 11 L L 4/1<br>Wed 12 L L L L<br>Thu 13 L L 5/2 L<br>Fri 14 L L<br>Sat 15 L L 1/1 L 11/4<br>Sun 4/5
<br>Ls to date Stakes 48 returns 37.62<br>Rd to date Stakes 47 returns 30.42<br>+1 to win Stakes 156 returns 138.67
<br>Lets hope for a better week.
<br>Ian C<br>
Hi there
At the moment this system isn’t going anywhere, but lets persevere.
Postings to date
Mon 17 L L<br>Tue 18 7/2<br>Wed 19 L L<br>Thur 20 L L<br>Fri 21 L L<br>Sat 22 L L 9/4 L<br>Sun 23 L L L L<br>Mon 24 L L 8/13
Level stakes Stakes 68 Returns 46.99
Soon be March!!!
Ian C<br>
Finishing February off..
Tues 25 L 9/2 8/13<br>Wed 26 L L L 11/8<br>Thur 27 L 2/5 L L<br>Fri 28 L 4/1 9/2
Stas for month
Sr 23/82 = 28.04%
Level stakes Stakes 82 Ret 68.38 -16.61 ROI<br>Rolling doubles Stakes 81 Returns 66.80 -17.53 ROI<br>+1 to win Stakes 271 returns 244.76 -9.68 ROI
Ian C
Not been around for a while but here’s March to 14th.
1 8/13 L 11/10 1/1 1/2 L 8/15<br>2 1/8 L 5/6 1/1<br>3 L L L<br>4 L 11/8 4/11<br>5 7/2 2/1 1/5 9/4<br>6 L L L 4/6<br>7 L L L<br>8 L L L 3/1 L<br>9 L<br>10 1/4 L 8/11<br>11 11/2 3/1 L<br>12 100/30 L<br>13 L L L<br>14 5/6 L 4/1
<br>That’s 23/48 SR= 47.9%<br>Level Stakes 48 Returns 59.71 ROI 24.39%<br>Rolling Doubles St 47 Ret 80.19<br>+1 to win St 104 Ret 124.57<br>1000 bank with 10% every time 1840.87
A better month than for a long time – can it last???<br>
Rest of March
15 11/4 6/4 1/1 11/10 L<br>16 L L 2/5 1/2<br>17 L 5/4 L L L L<br>18 4/7 L 1/1<br>19 L L L<br>20 L 1/2 L 9/10<br>21 L 7/4 L<br>22 4/1 L L 6/4 L L<br>23 7/2 8/15 11/8 L<br>24 1/2 4/5 L<br>25 10/11 13/8 4/7<br>26 8/13 L 5/2 15/8<br>27 9/4 L 1/6<br>28 L L L<br>29 L 3/1 15/8 L 4/9 1/1<br>30 L<br>31 8/13 L L
55 FROM 112 sr 49.1%<br>LS Stakes 112 Returns 134.58 ROI 20.1%<br>Rolling Doubles St 111 Ret 178.33<br>+1 to win St 222 Ret 270.97
£1000 Bank<br>2.5% 1631.74<br>5% 2313.35<br>10% 3180.18
Ian C
<br>
Good end to the month for you Ian.
Bet you glad you stuck with it.
Regards- Matron<br>:cool:
Thanks Matron
If you’d care to lend me a grand, I’ll split you 50/50 on the profit!
I have all the figures for the past 8 months, so I’ll try and put them into my new spraed sheet to see what if anything % of banks do to previous results.
Ian C
A seriously miserable month at the moment, it will take a lot to pull it round. Good job this is only on paper!
1 L 7/4 L<br>2 L L L 4/1<br>3 L L 4/6<br>4 L L L<br>5 8/11 L L<br>6 L L<br>7 1/4 L L<br>8 2/13 L L<br>9 L L L 3/1<br>10 4/5 L 8/15 L<br>11 5/2 L L<br>12 L L 11/10 8/11 L 7/4 L<br>13 L L
13 from 44 29.5% SR
Level Stakes 44 Ret 30.96 ROI -29.64%
Won’t bother with the other staking plans until end of the month they ain’t no better. If you had been using the 10% rolling bank you would now be very seriously poohing yourself!!
Ian C
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