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billion,
In the spirit of helping as always may I pose a question?
Have you read ‘Braddock’s Complete Guide to Horse Race Selection and Betting’ by Peter Braddock? If you havn’t then you should and if you have then you should read it again. You can even do it online for free:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/reader/18435 … eader-page
or you could purchase a copy for about £20.
Metro Publishing, 3 Bramber Court, 2 Bramber Rd, London W14 9PBI recommend it to anyone who backs short-priced runners.
Hello
FORMATH
In a word, NO, I have not heard of it, in fact I am still waiting for Amazon to deliver the other one you suggested, so I will have a peak at the on line version, thanks.
Perhaps you can offer a flavour of what is to be expected.
Billy's Outback Shack
The art to making this system pay is to be able to Handicap a Race, this will remove the Favourites that are less likely to win or be placed, this way you can filter out the bad bets and have a better percentage of winning punts, you could also play these punts on Betfair in the Play & Lay and In-Running…
The % (percentage) game has to be trialed over a period of time and proofed to ones self or to a body for confirmation that the system is viable.
Thanks for your contribution
TRAMPOLINE
but can I ask, how you would
Handicap
a race?
Having no interest in Laying I will pass on the remainder of your posting.
Each to their own I guess but having tried Laying and found it too stressful and removed all the fun from the sport but there would be NO betting without the layers, would there.
Billy's Outback Shack
Selections SUNDAY 28 March
None today
Merchant of Dubai (3.35 Doncaster) looked to be one but did not have my tipster’s vote and then much of the same with Rougham (2.20 Wincanton).
Milans Man (3.50 Hexham) got the tipsters nod but on offer at 4/6 has been passed, leaving only Triggerman (4.00 Wincanton) having all the ticks in all the boxes but looks as if it will also be excluded on price.
FORMATH’s
wisdom proved correct today by passing the "odds on" selections, Milans Man lost whilst TRIGGERMAN romped home an easy winner but at 8/15 S.p. although I do believe 1/1 was available very early on.
Having been swayed by my choice of tipster not picking either ROUGHAM who lost or MERCHANT OF DUBAI a nice 9/2 winner was missed
Billy's Outback Shack
billion,
In response to your query for a thumbnail sketch of the Braddock book the following is a piece I penned rececently that fills the bill……….
"Being at a loose end I thought I would pen a piece to point up the adjustment of the OR approach. Sometimes anyone offering free info is accused of being on an ego trip but in my case it is a way of saying thank you in some small measure to other members. Having got that out of the way let’s press on……..
This thread is in System Trials but really it is not a system with rigid rules but a method open to interpretation. For those of you who have read Braddock it’s similar to his approach in many ways, where I diverge from him is that my most critical criterion is the market and specifically the odds of every runner in a race generated by my assessment.
For those not aware of Braddock, here is a potted version for you. Braddock states that you should confine yourself to non-hcap, non-seller races of not more than 12 runners (Any serious favourite or near favourite investor should be able to improve their strike-rate by reading the Braddock opus). His criteria for assessment are:
Firstly, he states that the only true objective method of assessment is by a process of elimination, requiring painstaking and studious application.
Form (no specific direction given but he does respect Nigel Taylor, Daily Mail Formcast ratings, – “Proven form, is the confirmed undeniable proof of what has or has not been achieved in performance.”)
Fitness (has run on track in the past 28 days)
Class (can be defined as the quality of competition a horse races against)
Conditions (same going, same distance, getting weight allowance, ridden by top jockey, courses, draw, sundries such as headgear, trainer record and form).This is me; as you can see the Braddock principles run parallel to my adjusted OR but where I diverge and disagree totally with Braddock is in the omission of pricing every runner, which I regard as critical, and because of this I normally opt for better class hcaps where better odds are available.
The above will be old hat to many members but there are always newcomers needing a helping hand and this is aimed at them really."
My final comment today. This book is being sold as if it is fresh but my edition must be from the 70’s, or earlier. There has been a change in the ‘Fitness’ criterion too from 7 days to 14 days.
Thank you for your time etc.
FORMATH
and I will in due time get round to reading it.
Some of the principle filters you point out can be open for debate, should you believe everything you hear when listening to TV pundits and trainers (or even forum members) but what I like is how you are prepared to take issue with the author and adapt according to your own individual style or beliefs.
Only by adaptation and experimentation will new ground be broken, which is one of the main reasons for participation within forums such as this where new ideas can be welcomed without fear of ridicule.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi Billion, ( How would i handicap a race) i do Private work for Racing people, i was taught how to handicap races many years ago by Mr. Stan Smith who new Phil Bull, founder of Timeform well, i have also had time with P.Smith the Senior BHA Handicaper, plus i have my own Software designed to my Specifications with 43 available variables that i can tweak and many Filters to set my Programmes, i Handicap every race of every meeting every Day…365 days a year….
This gives me a Rating for every runners rating in a race.
The rating can tell you the worth of the Price of a contender in a race….
Example, i may have a runner 7Lbs clear on ratings therefore if it is odds-on for a race i will not punt on it but wait for the race to start Betfair start of race 1.7 but In-Running goes out to 3.00, that is worth a punt because i now it is capable of winning the race.Example.. Ruby Walsh riding Mourad was 1.9 before the race Started, i had it 13Lbs clear on the Ratings, went out to 3.5 In-Running, Won on the Bridle………
I have had 2 Selections that went out to 20.00 on Betfair and Won….that were well Clear on Ratings.
This is my second visit to this site and i do find it of interest, i go racing about 45 times a year and have several Racing friends who have horses, my first visit to a race-course was back in the 60’s……….still at school….Betfair has increased your chances of making a profit with thier exchanges….
I am very impressed by your answer
TRAMPOLINE
and thank you for it even though it makes me realise just what a simpleton I am.
You are a very clever person and most knowledgeable within, as they say, "your specialist subject" and does make me very much aware of how difficult it is for me to continue with my pursuit to find a KISS system, neverthless even if it does not exsist, I will persevere otherwise the past 20 years will all have been in vain.
Billy's Outback Shack
Monday March 29
Only one to qualify today: –
4.10 Lingfield STREET ENTERTAINER +Tspd 2/1
With only 4 runners Picture in the sky (2.30 Towcester) was a tempter at 8/11I also thought Drumshambo (3.00 Towcester) was going to make the cut but with an early price at 1/1 it was left on the sidelines.
Serendipity is the order of the day, having posted STREET ENTERTAINER I then remembered I had not checked my tipster who chose another, I let it run, as they say and went on to collect.Billy's Outback Shack
I read through the thread this morning, an interesting read and made me think about my approach. I use RPRs myself rather than Topspeed combined with course form. Well done on today’s winner it won nicely. One question, why do you rely on a tipster to point you towards a horse? As you said today was a case where your own judgement was better. Good luck.
Hello
KOPWAS
, I am pleased you have found this thread an interesting one.
Having read it you will realise it is all a bit of a shot in the dark following on from LESLEYONE’s postings on the Adrain Massey forum where it is said when top rated RPR is combined with favouritism (not sure if forecast or Sp) it results in 55% strike rate.
Whatever the case, that is, me being a "thicko" or simply unable to read form etc. the implementation of a tipster was introduced as a supplement to do the job for me, all in response to Brian,s (
usim999
) posting a few days ago.
Nothing is as yet set in stone, I record if the selection is top rated by Topspeed so that I can back check later when I have more data but is not a criteria at this point in time.
I do hope this answers your queries and hope you will use the thread to promote your own suggestions in the hope that we shall all benefit.
Billy's Outback Shack
billion,
Thank you for the post – for some reason I can’t reply to it. I’m sure you will find both books worthwhile. I have a 60 page free e-book about how to become a pro, which you are welcome to a copy of if you wish, just send me an email. I know you like a ‘taster’
so:Chapter 5. The Principles of Systematic Betting
We have said that systematic betting is based on a scientific premise: that the past forecasts the future. It is also based on the scientific premise that certain principles or laws underlie the apparent chaos of the universe. So, what are the underlying principles at work on the racecourse? You may have heard the old saw that fast horses win races. This is a tautology, because by definition, of course, the fastest horse in the race on the day always wins. The trick is to find the one which will be fastest on the day before the race is run! To me, this trick has three aspects. First, the horse must have the ability to win the race. Second, the horse must be able to show its form – that is, to live up to its innate ability. Thirdly, and absolutely vitally, the animal must be fancied by the people connected with it. If they are definitely not trying, then the horse will not win, and if they are not trying very hard it is less likely to win than might otherwise seem the case. These are the questions, then, that the punter must answer before choosing a runner on which he might bet –
• Does the horse have sufficient ability to win a race of this type?
• Are the circumstances right for the ability to be shown on this occasion?
• Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?FORMATH
you are too kind.
I have sent you a p.m. with address, I hope it works OK.
Billy's Outback Shack
Tuesday March 30
Having Newcastle abandoned has left a blank day.
Diktalina 2.00 Fontwell is the most likely but with an early price at 10/11 it should be passed unless it drifts out to 6/4
FORMATH
‘s advice to keep the money in the pocket when selections are below 6/4 is proven as words of wisdom, DIKTAILINA lost!
Billy's Outback Shack
billion
I was just reading through Nick Mordin’s ‘Winning Without Thinking’ because I knew your idea rang a bell. He had something similar which I bring up to see if it’s something of interest. He used top rated by both RPR and Topspeed combined with being favourite but NOT selected by Spotlight. It resulted in a good profit but the book is 8 years old so I don’t know how it stands up.
All the best.Are we getting "The old Grey Matter" working
KOPWAS
?
There may be some sound advice within your posting, although I have not read any SPOTLIGHT for ages my recollection is that it was not to be relied on but that can also be said for many tipsters.
Racing Post Verdict – is this SPOTLIGHT – is available for each separate race on the Wm. Hill website
Billy's Outback Shack
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