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Seeking Tommy’s thoughts on Identity Thief. I know little about him, but he seems a potential big improver and the Hatton’s Grace market suggests Arctic Fire will miss Newcastle, although IT also has an entry in Ireland
I’d be all over Irving if lining up again.
He’s a tough cookie and Schofield was ultra confident on him the other day.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Seeking Tommy’s thoughts on Identity Thief. I know little about him, but he seems a potential big improver and the Hatton’s Grace market suggests Arctic Fire will miss Newcastle, although IT also has an entry in Ireland
I was really, really excited about him at one stage last season Joe. I thought he was a Grade 1 horse. He won a good bumper unfancied coming from a long way back. Given his market price, plenty of improvement was surely expected.
He then ran in a very good maiden hurdle against Snow Falcon, form I liked (you may remember I had a fancy for him at big prices for the Albert Bartlett, he ran in the Neptune instead and wasn’t disgraced). He made a bad enough mistake at the second last that day yet still beat Snow Falcon with a bit in hand. Definitely a race worth watching Joe, both pulled nicely clear of the now 120-odd rated Okotoks.
You’d think a Henry de Bromhead trained, Gigginstown owned gelding would be the type to go on from two good opening displays but what happened after that was anything but good. I fancied him for the Deloitte but he drifted from ante -post prices of 7/2 out to 10/1 on the day and was pulled up. There was no explanation given for such a tame effort but somebody somewhere must have known something. He was then put in his place by Sempre Medici at Fairyhouse before scoping badly after defeat at Punchestown.
It could be he’s best in the early part of the season, or perhaps he went off the boil before the Deloitte and they couldn’t get him back. If that was the case, however, de Bromhead wouldn’t be the type of trainer to rush him back time and again. It’s puzzling but something was definitely amiss in the latter half of the season.
He has a number of things going for him: will handle the ground, the trip, and most importantly he’s in good form, something which can’t be said for a number of his rivals. Whiteout has gave the form a boost by beating Gitane Du Berlais since. Identity Thief made the running that day and will probably be better given a lead by something. He may be only a Grade 2 hurdler but this is a Grade 1 in name only, and given he’s been supplemented he’s surely an intended runner. A few of de Bromhead’s have been needing the run too so I’m sure he’ll step forward from Down Royal.
There are many reasons to doubt this horse if you look for them but I keep coming back to that form with Snow Falcon, a horse who could ruffle plenty of feathers in the top staying hurdles this season. That form puts him bang there for this imo.
Thanks, Tommy. Just struck me that he wouldn’t be the normal De Bromhead type – I know him more for his ‘chasers, though he first came to my notice when Sizing Europe began hurdling.
I’d love to know who prompted the supplementing: always think that if it’s the trainer, the horse has begun to show him things at home that he hadn’t expected. Horse does not yet appear to have put up a good speed figure, which worries me a bit, but I think I’ll take the chance with him. I’m not convinced about Irving yet, and I think Hargam might have wind problems.
Purple Bay worries me. I can never get Ferguson right: the horse is a big price.
Very grateful for your lengthy and enlightening analysis
Thanks
JoeIrving looks back to his best judged on his two wins so far this season, 5/2 looks decent value to me to retain his title. Purple Bay looks good each way material, there’s no shame being beaten by Bobs Worth and Simonsig and think the bookies have overreacted to that defeat. Rated 3 lbs inferior to Irving and yet is 4 times the price.
Having watched Haydock again, I’ve settled on Irving – probably a jinx as he’s a horse I find hard to catch. He didn’t have one clean jump at Haydock, and was especially poor at the last; worrying, but it shows how well he did in the end. He’d been heavily supported in the market, too. All in all, he seems very good value at 7/2 (9/4 with some).
I won’t be having a bet here, but I’m hoping Irving can do me another favour as
I have him in my Stable Stars Competition. I agree with you Joe that he was very
untidy at Haydock, and that is a bit of a worry. However, even with his
scratchy jumping, as Joe rightly mentioned, he got the job done, and that’s the difference
with him this year. He looks to be seeing out his races for a change, and if he can
just be a bit tidier at his jumps he must have a very solid chance here.I’m tempted to take the 7/2 with Boylesports, I think they are taking a big chance there,
but I am giving this one a bye.Well, I managed to put the mockers on Irving yet again – apologies to backers. Have bet him 3 times, each a miserable failure, and am now, officially and publicly divorcing myself from him, so supporters can resume their winning ways.
Well, I managed to put the mockers on Irving yet again – apologies to backers. Have bet him 3 times, each a miserable failure, and am now, officially and publicly divorcing myself from him, so supporters can resume their winning ways.
Lol. He’s a bit of an iffy horse for sure. to be fair to him it is only seven days since his last run. Ok it’s the same for Top Notch but not every horse is the same.
Maybe Irvine needs a little more of a break between races?
Maybe asking him to do too much in a short time Joe. Three hard races
in the space of 21 days is asking a lot. He didn’t look to be really
going well at any point in the race. I hope that after getting his
appetite back for racing, that this doesn’t bring about a set back.I think there is a lesson there for Paul Nicholls.
Apologies IBR, I hadn’t seen your post before I typed up along the
same lines. I’m in full agreement with you.Apologies IBR, I hadn’t seen your post before I typed up along the
same lines. I’m in full agreement with you.No apology required sir.
I back pretty much everything that de Bromhead runs but [thankfully] forgot I’d backed Identity Thief today. He’s a very canny trainer.
Well done, Mo.
BigG, ironically, one of the things that pushed me to bet him was Scholfield’s immediate post-race advice to Nicholls on dismounting at Haydock, effectively, ‘He’s not had a race. I was just too confident. Run him again next week’
We all come across horses we just can’t catch and an expensive lesson I learned a long time ago was to accept this early and just don’t bet in races they run in. His real Achilles Heel, is that he can’t jump. Shame, because he has a decent engine.
Good luck to Identity Thief. I’ve long thought that there might be a ‘system’ in backing supplemented horses under both codes, especially if you know that it has been done at the suggestion of the trainer. On the Flat, R Beckett seems particularly adept at it.
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