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False Favs System

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  • #1008
    EddieS
    Member
    • Total Posts 2

    Hi all,

    Here’s a little idea that might be worth investigating.  As part of my selection method I always check the Post Data box in the RP.  If my selection has a cross in any of the attributes it becomes a ‘no bet’ situation.  In the past week or two I have noticed that some FC fav’s have had a cross (Quarterstaff, by way of example) and on that basis my be worth opposing.  Especilly so, as most FC Favs go off as the SP Fav and some inherant ‘value’ should be found.  Obviously, using the same logic, the opposing selection(s) should also not have a cross against it; but one might want to use the betting FC in identifying the most likely winner.  Yesteday for example, I had Alpha Rose down as a false fav (poor trainer form) and Moyne Pleasure was the alterantive selection. This won at 5/1!

    Your views, ideas and research would be welcome

    Eddie:cheesy:

    #43217
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Hi EddieS,<br>Identifying false favourites is a good plan. I’m posting a system at the moment called SF. If you followed all of the selections from that FULL list you would only lose 28% of the time opposing the favourite. And some of them are quite short priced.<br>My experience has been that favourites are worth opposing if they are under 2/1 in the betting and running in smaller fields, preferably HCP races.<br>Hope this helps.

    #43218
    EddieS
    Member
    • Total Posts 2

    Cheers Dave,

    Some thougts for further investigation.

    Many regards

    Eddie

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