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I’ve always thought that the effect of the going is often not factored in to prices properly. I wondered if anyone else had views on factors (ground, distance, jockey, trainer, course characteristics, etc) that were either over or under emphasised in the betting market?
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As a general rule; anything positive obvious in the form, or highlighted by Spotlight, will be overbet. Not surprisingly, the facets that need a little sorting out are usually underbet.
Prime example; Taajub in the sales race today.
Short -priced fav on the strength of his 2l gp2 2nd and a strong word from Spotlight. Over half a furlong further, on a stiffer track and from a low draw, I couldn’t have him at twice the price.
The 2nd fav Spying, is available at 8/1 simply because he’s hasn’t won over 6f and is trained by a woman; much better drawn, too.
Wouldn’t get involved myself, but certainly mileage in such as the above for the value punter.The fav twice as short as he should be but you’re not getting involved? Free munny shirley?
One of my favourite angles is the positive/negative effects of a trainer change. There are plenty of poor trainers out there, and so many times their horses improve ‘for a change of scenery’. Granted some yards now aren’t the great angles they were months ago, i.e. switchers to Jim Best and Tim Vaughan are now afforded the respect in the market they deserve, but there are still plenty out there that aren’t.
Love the trainer change on David – was told that War of the Worlds was a very very good horse out of points for Gigginstown Stud/Mouse Morris a couple of years ago. He was sold to Vaughan for 18k at DBS, was entered first time up for him in the big Ffos Las 3m handicap chase, was withdrawn and went in at Stratford on Saturday.
Time of the year is a big one – surprising how some horses records are better in a particular month than at any other time during the year. Combine this with distance, ground factors and it’s not hard to find a horse who’s 2/3 in June say, 3/3 on good to firm and 4/7 at the distance at 33/1 in a big handicap.
I think factors such as Jockeys and Trainers mean many horses go off at odds under what they should be. Partly, I suspect, this is because there are so many punters who bet purely based on who the Jockey or trainer is, or indeed, certain combinations of the two.
For example, there was a listed race run at Goodwood the other day where there were two Godolphin runners…Vale of York and Atlantis Star. As far as I was concerned Vale of York had far better form than Atlantis Star but as he was ridden by Ahmed Ajtebi with Frankie Dettori on Atlantis Star – both went off similar price (9-2 Vale of York & 11-2 Atlantis Star). I guarantee if Frankie had been on Vale of York he would have been at least a point or two shorter in the market.
is trained by a woman
Surely the fact that a woman trains a horse doesn’t add points to it’s price?
A rough rule is ‘small’ trainers are underbet and ‘big’ trainers are overbet.
There is more to it than that, but it’s starting point.
Two sparkling examples of the former are the jumps records of Vic Dartnall, L.S. profit over 5 seasons from 20% winners, and Don Cantillon, L.S. Profit over 5 seasons from 17% winners (just over 30% winners with his chasers).
- Total Posts 17716
Mark Johnston winners are overbet, and Mark Johnston losers are underbet.
Simples.
Seriously though, I think a horse’s trainer has a massive bearing on its price. Not even accounting for trainer form, it still amazes me how the horses of many lesser-known names appear much further down a market than you might expect.
I guess common sense has little effect when some people see ‘Sir Michael Stoute’ alongside ‘Mrs Anne Duffield’.
i.e. switchers to Jim Best and Tim Vaughan are now afforded the respect in the market they deserve, but there are still plenty out there that aren’t.
Agreed. Not everything they touch turns to gold, of course, but given the improvement wrought from the likes of nutjobs like Lord Baskerville under their tutelage, the 3-1 about Calaficial on his debut for the Pogsons at Worcester last Sunday seemed big to me.
Not sure if they were an example you had in mind, David, but I personally doubt 3-1 would have been available at the off had the debut been for the aforementioned messrs Vaughan or Best.
gc
The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
They weren’t graysons, no. Sadly though I’m all to aware of their skills with Lord Baskerville. Their name came out of the hat the day we also tried to claim him from a Hexham seller. From memory I’m pretty sure it was Switon Hurdle day after Saif Sareea had finished third. Others probably remember it as the day George Washington won the Guineas!
I think that the trainer angle is pretty overrated, tbh.
Trying to calculate one variable against another and weighing an expected price (number of actual wins) against the price the horse went off at, is a pretty good starting point .. deciding whether your findings are down to luck or not, is quite another matter.
In answer to the original question the answer must be everything is overbet and everything is underbet, from time to time. Finding an occasion where this is consistently greater or less than 6% from fair is almost impossible.
Good thread.
I still think weight is one of the least important factors when it comes to assessing a race. As for handicap ‘marks’ ? Well, the number of times you hear analysts argue that a 2lb drop in a horse’s handicap mark will result in a complete transformation of fortune is absolutely staggering.
Going, distance, class, trainer form, course, size of field, fitness are all far more important in my opinion.
A factor which is often ignored? The win-ratios of horses. Horses with poor wins-to-runs records have an absolutely awful record in the better class races and yet regularly you’ll see animals at short prices for good races with a win record of 5-10% after a dozen runs or more. Madness.
They weren’t graysons, no. Sadly though I’m all to aware of their skills with Lord Baskerville. Their name came out of the hat the day we also tried to claim him from a Hexham seller. From memory I’m pretty sure it was Swinton Hurdle day after Saif Sareea had finished third. Others probably remember it as the day George Washington won the Guineas!
May 6th, 2006, I have it down as – Heart Of All England night at Hexham, no less.
Unlucky to have lost out in the draw, David. Must have been a good chance Richard could have got as much out of Lord Baskerville as the Pogsons.
Incidentally, one of your number once told me you very nearly ended up with no lesser a beast than Jug Of Punch, but he accidentally won the Ludlow seller you were going to claim him from when clear leader Elaala capsized at the last. That sound about right, or was he pulling my chain?
gc
The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Incidentally, one of your number once told me you very nearly ended up with no lesser a beast than Jug Of Punch, but he accidentally won the Ludlow seller you were going to claim him from when clear leader Elaala capsized at the last. That sound about right, or was he pulling my chain?
gc
How could anyone possibly improve on the work of Simon T Lewis?
No that’s true. A day I recall Saif Sareea running into a certain horse called Andreas of a hurdles mark of 119. It wouldn’t be allowed these days I tell ya.
Good thread.
I still think weight is one of the least important factors when it comes to assessing a race. As for handicap ‘marks’ ? Well, the number of times you hear analysts argue that a 2lb drop in a horse’s handicap mark will result in a complete transformation of fortune is absolutely staggering.
If a 2lb drop in the ratings is from 68 to 66 it makes very little difference, but if the drop is from 72 to 70 it makes a horse eligible to run in a lower class of race. That makes a difference.
Rob
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