extracting data

[onefurlongout]

class completed, role on saturday

[carlisle]

Hi 1FurOut

expect your data to appear on here at about 7pm. It will be useful to compare our different spreadsheet results.

I hope you are okay with cutting/pasting and importing data into Excel…
It’s pretty easy stuff, once you get the hang of it.

By about 11am on Saturday I hope to have written/posted 3 or 4 paragraphs on each of the races. Starting with the intention of NOT having a bet, I will try to convince myself that I should get involved.

I am off to the gym now, to teach those big guys how it’s done.

byefrom
carlisle

ps try and read as much about the races as you can, if possible.

[dave jay]

I looking forward to it carlisle .. good luck to you and your crew mates ..

[carlisle]

Thanks davejay

Here goes something….

1450ayr 12run Hcp

Mutajarred,1,1,1,,,,108,,,80,,,3,,,class
My Paris,7,10,9,,,,109,,,101,,,8,,,
White Deer,2,5,10,,,,106,,,81,,,11,,,
Hartshead,2,10,10,,,,105,,,87,,,20,,,
Royal Dignitary,10,10,4,,,,108,,,108,,,11,,,
Fremen,1,5,4,,,,107,,,107,,,7,,,
Moody Tunes,2,10,4,,,,105,,,97,,,11,,,
Proponent,5,7,4,,,,105,,,105,,,6,,,
Kinsya,7,1,10,,,,107,,,107,,,10,,,
Nevada Desert,4,8,5,,,,106,,,106,,,12,,,
Wavertree Warrior,10,4,5,,,,107,,,94,,,10,,,
Vainglory,1,3,7,,,,102,,,96,,,12,,,

1FurOut are you okay with this?

byefrom
carlisle

ps do you want the rest? ….. or a lie down?

[carlisle]

1605ayr—-14run Hcp

Commando Scott,1,8,5,,,,103,,,105,,,7,,,class
Imperial Echo,4,3,2,,,,101,,,85,,,11,,,
Countdown,6,10,10,,,,102,,,85,,,6.5,,,
Balakiref,1,1,10,,,,97,,,96,,,11,,,
Obe Gold,2,6,5,,,,104,,,95,,,11,,,
Heroes,10,3,2,,,,99,,,89,,,5.5,,,
Hiccups,3,4,7,,,,98,,,90,,,6.5,,,
Shot To Fame,10,2,8,,,,100,,,100,,,9,,,
Desert Dreamer,1,2,6,,,,94,,,90,,,10,,,
Stonehaugh,10,2,6,,,,102,,,87,,,16,,,
Fifty Cents,2,1,8,,,,78,,,53,,,6.5,,,
Grimes Faith,7,6,2,,,,107,,,98,,,9,,,
Red Romeo,9,4,10,,,,101,,,87,,,33,,,
Viva Volta,6,1,5,,,,100,,,98,,,33,,,

[carlisle]

1640ayr—14run NonHcp

Blythe Knight,1,1,7,,,,120,,,115,,,10,,,class
Championship Point,1,4,6,,,,128,,,127,,,10,,,
Ivy Creek,1,5,4,,,,125,,,100,,,7,,,
Charlie Tokyo,4,1,6,,,,120,,,110,,,14,,,
Dunaskin,3,8,2,,,,119,,,119,,,66,,,
Group Captain,6,1,10,,,,130,,,114,,,6.5,,,
Into The Dark,1,5,4,,,,130,,,97,,,10,,,
Anna Pavlova,1,2,3,,,,128,,,105,,,6,,,
Confidential Lady,5,5,2,,,,134,,,97,,,3.5,,,
Grey Outlook,6,9,10,,,,75,,,63,,,500,,,
Caldra,1,4,3,,,,125,,,124,,,9,,,
Spice Route,5,4,6,,,,125,,,120,,,9,,,
Sunshine Kid,3,10,4,,,,122,,,115,,,9,,,
Wait Watcher,1,10,10,,,,97,,,84,,,33,,,

[carlisle]

1717ayr—-9run Hcp

St Savarin,1,3,6,,,,95,,,75,,,14,,,class
Sphinx,3,10,1,,,,94,,,93,,,7.5,,,
Southern Regent,2,9,7,,,,89,,,57,,,12,,,
Lets Roll,7,6,10,,,,102,,,76,,,4.5,,,
Black Rock,1,8,1,,,,94,,,89,,,3.33,,,
Opal Haze,3,1,1,,,,67,,,14,,,5,,,
Furmigadelagiusta,4,1,3,,,,88,,,71,,,4,,,
Yossi,4,1,3,,,,93,,,87,,,11,,,
Bollin Felix,1,3,10,,,,91,,,91,,,8,,,

[carlisle]

1545nwb—11run NonHcp

Mutawaajid,9,10,4,,,,125,,,116,,,5.5,,,class
Hoh Mike,9,1,6,,,,125,,,120,,,5,,,
Desert Lord,6,10,2,,,,133,,,122,,,2.5,,,
Hogmaneigh,4,10,7,,,,125,,,123,,,20,,,
Judd Street,6,2,10,,,,124,,,118,,,14,,,
Rowe Park,1,3,3,,,,120,,,98,,,25,,,
The Jobber,4,6,2,,,,120,,,111,,,25,,,
Bertoliver,1,8,5,,,,103,,,103,,,100,,,
Sonny Red,6,3,4,,,,124,,,121,,,9,,,
Enticing,5,4,2,,,,132,,,132,,,3.5,,,
Siren´s Gift,5,4,1,,,,119,,,116,,,20,,,

1655nwb—7run NonHcp

Great Hawk,1,7,7,,,,98,,,110,,,20,,,class
New Seeker,5,10,10,,,,106,,,122,,,25,,,
Multidimensional,1,8,1,,,,111,,,0,,,1.376,,,
Desert Authority,3,1,1,,,,107,,,0,,,20,,,
Olympian Odyssey,5,3,6,,,,112,,,134,,,4,,,
Oracle West,2,6,6,,,,137,,,125,,,1.75,,,
Arqaam,3,2,1,,,,98,,,80,,,14,,,

The End

[onefurlongout]

OK so the claculations are complete and the short lists devised.

14.50 – My Paris, Freman and Kinsya
15.45 – Hoh Mike, Desrt Lord, Sonny Red & Enticing
16.05 – Commando Scott, Imperial Echo, Countdown and Obe Gold
16.40 – Ivy Creek, Anna Pavlova, Confidnetail Lady, Caldra
16.55 – As 2 NR’s then all runners have a chance in this one
17.15 – Sphinx, Black Rock, Furmigadelagiusta.

Need to concentrate on the shortlist now and then pick my bet type from their.

Carlisle it will be interesting to see if you have similar results and what your thoughts are for tomorrow. Will you still be having a bet?

[carlisle]

Hi mate

hope to have a few bets, I am struggling with the KeyTrend data though.
Craig Thake’s RP article is going to be of some help in the morning.

The handicaps look tricky, but I have got a couple of sneaky fancies in the other races. I will see how it pans out tommorrow.

6am rise and then off to get the paper for me.

good night from
carlisle

[carlisle]

1545ayr (shortlists)
**********

Form
====
122 Confidential L.
97 Ivy Creek
97 Anna Pav.

OwnerTrainerJockey
===============
288 Into The D.
230 Confidential L.
220 Caldra
210 Anna Pav.
199 Group Capt.
160 Champ. Point

KeyTrends (lack of research here!)
========
36 Anna Pav.
36 Confidential L.
36 Group Capt.
36 Ivy Creek
28 Caldra
28 Spice Roots

Head scratching time now. Confidential Lady looks good at 3/1 with paddyPower, I certainly think it has more than a 25% chance of winning. The lack of a run is a slight worry though. Ann Pavlova also looks okay.

I have had the following bets.

Confidential Lady 1.5pt win @ 100/30
Anna Pavlova 1.0pt win @ 7/2
Ivy Creek 0.5pt win @ 8/1

byefrom
carlisle

[carlisle]

1545nwb (shortlists)
***********

Form
====
125 Mutawaajid
120 Hoh Mike
106 Enticing
104 Desert L.
94 Sonny Red

OTJ
===
218 Sonny Red
189 Mutawaajid
180 Enticing
180 Siren’s G.
169 Hoh Mike
140 Desert L.

KeyTrends (thanks Craig Thake)
========
55 Hoh Mike
55 Judd Street
53 Desert L.
53 Enticing
47 Mutawaajid
45 Sonny Red

This seems like a tough race to crack, I think Desert Lord, at the price, can be dropped. Whoops…. happy landings! I can smell bacon so it’s time for a break.

Well this race looks too difficult. The closeness of the BHB ratings bare this out. Any of the Form shortlisted horse could win. So no bet for me.

The 1605ayr look like granite, although I am considering Commando Scott carefully.

In the 1655ayr I think Olympian Odyssey @ 4/1 merits a 0.50pt bet.

Going to watch Get On & ATR to see was I can pick up. My full selections will follow later. It looks like we have a few horses in common…

byefrom
carlisle

[onefurlongout]

selections from the shortlist are as follows

My Paris
Desert Lord
Commando Scott
Anna Pavlova
Olympian Odyssey / New Seeker
Sphinx / Black Rock..

First time posting selections so these will probably bomb but hopefully not

I also like Beaver Patrol in the Ayr Gold Cup

[onefurlongout]

yeah a lot of difficult races today.

Ive had a couple of fun bets but nothing to serious.

Looks a good day of racing though

[carlisle]

Yeah

I prefer confidently getting stuck into a Favourite at a good price, or opposing bad value with live contender. Today’s racing is a bit dodgy.

Here’s my final list
==============

My Paris @ 8/1
Commando Scott @ 9/2
Confidential Lady @ 100/30
Mutawaajid @ 4/1
Olympian Odyssey @ 7/2
Lets Roll @ 7/2

I feel reasonably sure that they strike the right risk/reward ratio.

byefrom
carlisle

[Pompete]

Good Luck today lads

[onefurlongout]

Not a bad day three good winners in CS AP and BR

[Author]

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