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Looks a really interesting card, and I wish I was there instead of at work!
Nicholls could feasibly win three, four or even five races, and the Pasco/Straw Bear race will be fascinating.
The Tother One also looks to be a very promising chasing debutant.
Any thoughts?
Back Pasco.. Never seen a novice hurdler who looked more like a chaser. Straw Bear is not the biggest and despite the fact he will have a pace advantage I think he will struggle to adapt.
I think Pasco is pretty much nailed on especially considering the form of Nicholls novices first time out this season – Breedsbreeze, Imsingingtheblues, Herecomesthetruth to name but three. Pasco looks more likely out of the two horses to improve for fences.
Alistair Whitehouse-Jones alluded to Straw Bear’s greater effectiveness on flatter tracks in his Spotlight summary – certainly seven out of nine career wins have been posted on such tracks, even if he’s put in some sterling efforts in defeat over something more undulating from time to time.
I’d possibly go just a little further and say that the gelding’s propensity to bleed as badly as he did in the ’07 Champion Hurdle has always worried me a touch since then; especially now he is pitched into this tougher discipline of steeplechasing, which is going to exact a greater strain on the constitution of what’s not the biggest horse in the world ever.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I figured yesterday to be taking Straw Bear on today, reasoning he might be odds-on. After seeing 11/8 last night, I decided to take the price and back him instead.
I now feel like I’m walking the Green Mile.
I’m on Straw Bear in a double with The Tother One. Am I confident? No, to be honest they are decent races and its perfectly conceivable that both could get turned over. Decent price the double though with The Tother One being from the Nicholls yard and Straw Bear being well clear of his rivals on hurdles form.
Cracking card at Exeter really looking forward to it.
To counter-act my (and the apparent general) lack of confidence in Straw Bear, I have also backed The Nightingale in the second, and I am absolutely certain that he will hack-up.
I hope for your sake you’re right GH, personally I fear for your bank balance on both counts. Won’t be betting in either race but it could be you’re doing the Nicholls runner in the wrong race. Shalone’s only defeat was by a decent sort in Diamond Harry who wasn’t extended to win his hurdle race LTO and Samurai Way if translating his best flat form could be a fly in the ointment as well. The Nightingale finishing just in front of another King runner and a 100/1 shot LTO , albeit in a considered hot race, wouldn’t fill me with maximum confidence. Best of luck all the same.
I’m a big fan of Mad Max, aaronizneez, and I’m hoping that The Nightingale can bolster his form today.
I’m not convinced Alan King’s horse’s are as forward as they might be at this stage of the season. It was mentioned to me a few days ago, I’ve been keeping a close eye on them since, and tey are definitely giving me the feeling that they will come on for their first outing.
Re Straw Bear, it would seem the omens are not too clever, but every horse has his price, and I confess I topped-up with a little bit of 9/4 earlier.
But like you say, every chance I’ve got these two races thoroughly ar*se about tit. We’ll see.
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I think you’d have to be feeling very brave to bet with any conviction in the Straw Bear-Pasco race, given that there are half a dozen in there that could improve markedly now sent over fences.
As for The Nightingale, he has it all to do to beat Shalone in my opinion who was incredibly impressive last time. He’ll make the day a very pleasing one if he proceeds to victory.
Any news on the horse’s wellbeing? All I saw was the RP text commentary describing it as a terrible incident.
Any news on the horse’s wellbeing? All I saw was the RP text commentary describing it as a terrible incident.
Well he got up on his feet after what seemed like ten – fifteen seconds so hopefully all is well. Desperately unlucky just seemed to fall for no apparent reason.
He came down on the (what looks like) ash about 10yards after the last hurdle………………..front legs just appeared to buckle under him…………………which – funnily enough – is exactly what happened to me about 2 seconds later.
Looked to me like he either tripped or lost his footing on the crossing as he was taking his stride away from the hurdle. Having just landed he was off balance not much horse or jockey could do. They said on SIS that the Clerk, Nicholls and several others were down there trying to see what had gone wrong.
Rumours are that horse and jockey are fine though.That path covering is actually bark chippings – there’s the same sort of crossing on the run-in at Taunton as well and I’ve never seen it cause a problem before.
The slow motion on ATR suggests the horse stumbled on the turf before the crossing, then couldn’t regain his feet when he landed on the edge of the crossing next stride and he did a complete somersault. The crossing is about four or five strides after the last hurdle.
Nicholls has been on ATR and stated horse is absolutely fine.
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