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I don’t think the big firms are that worried by the exchanges, they now have a free and highly accurate tissue provided to them covering most markets.
There is room for everyone and I would never want a monopoly of any kind be it Tote, Exchanges or traditional bookmakers.
I don’t think the big firms are that worried by the exchanges, they now have a free and highly accurate tissue provided to them covering most markets.
There is room for everyone and I would never want a monopoly of any kind be it Tote, Exchanges or traditional bookmakers.
Think you’ve been seriously misled by the early money on Betfair Lewey – any serious bookmakers/odds compilers will still compile their own tissue, using Betfair on it’s own early in the morning would result in something along the following:
Horse A 3.2/4.1
Horse B 5.2/8.6
Horse C 8.8/13.5
Horse D 12.5/18.5
Horse E 20.0/80.0How would you go around deciding which horse is which price? Is horse A 9/4 or 3/1, horse B 4/1 or 15/2? Would you go 16’s Horse E or 66’s?
Plenty of questions that Betfair and the £2 players can’t asnwer. I’m sure the big bookmakers would much rather trust the judgement of their odds compilers than the small players who play the Betfair markets early in the morning/destroy the price the night before.
I take your point Irish and I am sure your right.
A few weeks ago I wanted to back a horse at Fontwell that I thought was overpriced. It was between 14-1 to 16-1 in various forecasts. There was money overnight and it was backed from 28s down to around 14s for about £200. It was first priced at 10-1s when it possibly could have been a bit bigger. Yes I know the RP forecasts are not what they use to be and I am sure the big firms have a team, but this is helping mark their card IMO.
It’s probably a whole different topic as whether it would be better to open the markets later in the day and market manipulation and false gambles with horses with no chance on form being punted in and running shockers that the form said they would!
p.s. still using you spreadsheet you kindly sent, with a few tweaks.
Glad the spreadsheet is working Lewey – it’s really helped me over the past few years, if only to help keep me focused on the running total and making sure it keeps going up
few years ago it was arbers trying their luck on-course, they have ALL gone,
last year inrunning was all the rage, give it time, and I mean short time.
On course is for the public having a day out these days!
There can be value on-course at the minor meetings, as most of the on-course bookmakers take their show from Betdaq, which can differ widely from Betfair. e.g. 3.35 on Betdaq, bookie shows 9-4, Betfair 3.15. You still also get some rails firms willing to stick their chest out and play to their opinions – e.g. John Christie and Geoff Banks.
I don’t think the big firms are that worried by the exchanges, they now have a free and highly accurate tissue provided to them covering most markets.
There is room for everyone and I would never want a monopoly of any kind be it Tote, Exchanges or traditional bookmakers.
Think you’ve been seriously misled by the early money on Betfair Lewey – any serious bookmakers/odds compilers will still compile their own tissue, using Betfair on it’s own early in the morning would result in something along the following:
Horse A 3.2/4.1
Horse B 5.2/8.6
Horse C 8.8/13.5
Horse D 12.5/18.5
Horse E 20.0/80.0How would you go around deciding which horse is which price? Is horse A 9/4 or 3/1, horse B 4/1 or 15/2? Would you go 16’s Horse E or 66’s?
Plenty of questions that Betfair and the £2 players can’t asnwer. I’m sure the big bookmakers would much rather trust the judgement of their odds compilers than the small players who play the Betfair markets early in the morning/destroy the price the night before.
The reality is, as I’ve said plenty of times before that this is exactly what the bookmakers are doing in setting early prices for most races most days (i.e. cogging the early Betfair markets). Especially at minor Irish meetings, it’s the easiest game in the world spoofing out the price in the morning for fivers and watching them price up accordingly. If plenty of shrewd outfits are not using this modus operandi then Fist and the Ante Post Muppet are professional coco shunters.
I don’t think the big firms are that worried by the exchanges, they now have a free and highly accurate tissue provided to them covering most markets.
There is room for everyone and I would never want a monopoly of any kind be it Tote, Exchanges or traditional bookmakers.
Think you’ve been seriously misled by the early money on Betfair Lewey – any serious bookmakers/odds compilers will still compile their own tissue, using Betfair on it’s own early in the morning would result in something along the following:
Horse A 3.2/4.1
Horse B 5.2/8.6
Horse C 8.8/13.5
Horse D 12.5/18.5
Horse E 20.0/80.0How would you go around deciding which horse is which price? Is horse A 9/4 or 3/1, horse B 4/1 or 15/2? Would you go 16’s Horse E or 66’s?
Plenty of questions that Betfair and the £2 players can’t asnwer. I’m sure the big bookmakers would much rather trust the judgement of their odds compilers than the small players who play the Betfair markets early in the morning/destroy the price the night before.
The reality is, as I’ve said plenty of times before that this is exactly what the bookmakers are doing in setting early prices for most races most days (i.e. cogging the early Betfair markets). Especially at minor Irish meetings, it’s the easiest game in the world spoofing out the price in the morning for fivers and watching them price up accordingly. If plenty of shrewd outfits are not using this modus operandi then Fist and the Ante Post Muppet are professional coco shunters.
Some do for sure but no respecting bookmaker would want to blindly follow Betfair or they’ll go skint.
Believe it or not, that’s the reality. They don’t go skint because they won’t lay a decent bet to anyone with half a clue. Take Victor Chandler’s "price promise" for example: try getting more than a couple of hundred euro on any race midweek where they’re a standout and you’re a million.
the Ante Post Muppet are professional coco shunters.
You couldn"t lace "The Ante-Post Muppets" boots!You have already proved You are the King of the losers,anyone can pick losers,your Daily lays and plays is a Joke! 85% of your selections lose and you talk about having to use agents to get your bets on!
Dreeeamer!The current thread is just over 13 points behind. The last one which lasted a year was well over 100 points in front. (would tell you exactly but it seems to have disappeared)
That’s a profitable record lasting 18 months and I’d like a bit of evens off you I don’t finish in front again this time. As you will know well Mr King, the strike rate is irrelevant, it’s the P and L that counts!
The current thread was started to try and arrest an appalling run which hopefully it has. If you can demonstrate profitability over time with clear staking in a thread on here you are quite welcome to have a pop at me.The current thread is just over 13 points behind. The last one which lasted a year was well over 100 points in front. (would tell you exactly but it seems to have disappeared)
That’s a profitable record lasting 18 months and I’d like a bit of evens off you I don’t finish in front again this time. As you will know well Mr King, the strike rate is irrelevant, it’s the P and L that counts!
The current thread was started to try and arrest an appalling run which hopefully it has. If you can demonstrate profitability over time with clear staking in a thread on here you are quite welcome to have a pop at me.Fair comment! I respect anyone who is prepared to put their head on the line and that includes you!If you read my posts you will see clearly i had £400 worth of bets on Somersby but only lost £100 on the race,i had £50 e/w at 12"s and the same again at 10"s on Imperial Commander and £100 e/w on Weapons Amnesty at 10"s and £20 at 16"s,to name but a few!When you put one up at 90"s,i"ll tip my crown to you! Calling TAPK a Coco Shunter is very disrespectful!
Apologies for the slight- was only rhyming slang for punter!
I’ve bumped that old thread for you, it was actually over 140 pts. Used to live in Alfreton, back in the day….
Dreeeamer!
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