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I was at Fontwell on Sunday and what struck me was the number of people playing In-Running from the course. One chap was stood in the middle of course during the chases on a blue-tooth headset trying to lay horses as they made crucial mistakes.
Got me thinking, as I have just finished reading Alex Bird’s book, as to how boring the gambling books of the future will read. "Today I went to Fontwell and nicked a few quid in running from those poor suckers watching delayed pictures from ATR". Not really going to be an exciting read.
Betfair has changed so much IMO, it seems to be full of arbers, traders and momentum players. I would love to know the percentage of winners that are pure form/value punters. (Checked and my account shows a £246 loss in the 7 years I have used the exchanges)
I remember someone saying in the early days that they will run the risk of running out layers. I wonder if this will ever come to fruition.
It might just be coincidental with some of the races I’ve seen lately but I’ve been surprised by the number of horses, often favourites, that are leading, then seem to be beaten, then come back to win their races. I can’t help but wonder if this ‘betting in running’lark is influencing the way that some races are now being run.
In running is not for me. I know what you are saying Ken, I have seen chunks in running for certain horses. Although the exchanges can play tricks on your minds and effect your judgment, conspiracy theories seem rife. Look at the current threads on the betfair forum relating to the ‘fixed’ Italian football game.
Barry I agree re liquidity and the layers.
Lewey –
Alex Bird made a fair bit of his money from standing at the winning line judging the finish and betting on the outcomes. Not too dissimilar from the trader on the course looking for mistakes. Both trying to find an edge by having a bet while in possession of information no one else had.
I agree Bird’s modus operandi has a more wordly charm but, in the world of the future, the lad standing on the course with the bluetooth headset may adopt a similar endearing quality.
few years ago it was arbers trying their luck on-course, they have ALL gone,
last year inrunning was all the rage, give it time, and I mean short time.
Given time Barry, nobody will want to go racing if the on-course market gets any poorer. Higher over-rounds etc.
Even at Cheltenham we saw bookies shortening up a hell of a lot of horses in each race, yet pushing out only a fraction of that. Mac looked embarassed telling the viewers they are backing so many.
If one horse is being backed, another should be lengthening to keep the over-round the same. More and more often that is simply not happening.
Value Is Everythingginger, you pick your stats. I’ll use my facts.
2000 overounds 2.2% 2010 overrounds 1.8% per runner
attendances up 3% same period.
only lumpy punters missing last few years, even these are returning, well those that are still solvent, free and alive.
traditional bookmakers are taking more morning business, due to lack of liquidity on exchanges.
If the markets are strong, Cheltenham, big 3/4 willing to better exchanges to large amounts,
ginger the on-course game is comfortable.
good pitch prices now more than 10 years ago
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I love watching bookmakers talk about Betfair. It’s such an obvious game of oneupmanship. If they ever run out of layers at Betfair then all bookies will be broke too. As long as 3/4 odds on pops get beaten at Festival week both will survive.
Lumpy punters will always have hot and cold periods. There are simply times when society is more solvent than others. When an online bookmaker gets hold of a lumpy mug they wont let him fall into the hands of another operator if they can help it. Keep them at home on their computer and away from the course and other bookies. I’m certain that less lumpy mugs being about on racecourses is due to the internet on a whole rather than Betfair.
Should we return to the bad old days where Barry and his mates had over rounds closer to 3% per runner? Back to a time when competition was all on course?
Only the impatient tip in the bookie fraternity and spoil their own odds by backing a runner in the morning. Any clever trader can get all the exchange liquidity they want if they can keep their powder dry. The market will always drift faster at Betfair than with bookmakers.
- Total Posts 17716
Back to topic – traders on course betting in running. It only takes one quick trader to beat everyone to the punch and there’s nought left for the rest. The slow will never survive and become disheartened fairly soon.
Not a lot of room for error when you give 500/1 plus about a horse that looks "gone" in running only for it to kick back and win. I’d think the majority of in running players were back to lay and lay to back arbers who have a price set as soon as the race is in play. The few on course players are simply trying to take the cream from those who make the market. Exchanges will do fine with or without them.
In running should be a rapidly growing market, meaning more money for racing but we can thank the likes of ATR for their corrupt time delay on their pictures for it not doing so.
RUK aren’t blameless, why do they allow Turf TV pictures to be quicker than RUK?
I’m afraid anything to do with money and there’s always going to be a level of corruption.Amazing that there’s been no investigation into the corruption, Matt Williams started one but then did a runner and forgot all about it.
Notice when showing Meydan, ATR’s pictures have almost an identical delay as other broadcasters, how come they can’t manage it for Ascot?
C4 racing will be totally obsolete for in running purposes shortly when the analogue signal is switched off completely, as anyone who has already had it switched off will testify, C4 digital is several seconds behind even ATR.- Total Posts 17716
ginger, you pick your stats. I’ll use my facts.
2000 overounds 2.2% 2010 overrounds 1.8% per runner
attendances up 3% same period.
Convenient ‘facts’ those, BD – 2000 being the last year before the advent of Betfair, and also the last full year of on-course betting tax.
Snake oil, anyone?
"C4 racing will be totally obsolete for in running purposes shortly when the analogue signal is switched off completely, as anyone who has already had it switched off will testify, C4 digital is several seconds behind even ATR."
It, is "3.8" seconds behind for me with "digital signal".
They are still running and the "Betfair" market is "suspended".
It is exactly the same with "Wimbledon" and all other sports.
Regards – Matron
ginger, you pick your stats. I’ll use my facts.
ginger the on-course game is comfortable.
good pitch prices now more than 10 years ago
Yes and no. The on-course game is OK on the big days, particularly from the good pitches but mid-week is on it’s arse, whatever your pick. If it wasn’t for the likes of Ladbrokes getting involved it would be a struggle to justify the expenses at the likes of Southwell.
few years ago it was arbers trying their luck on-course, they have ALL gone,
last year inrunning was all the rage, give it time, and I mean short time.
Anyone who Bets seriously does it on-line these days!My last 5 years doing so have shown me a healthy profit,purely because i have cut all the overheads of travel and entrance fees out of the equation! What Bookmaker would have given me 90"s 80"s and 70"s about Albertas Run in the Ryanair? Ladbrokes were the most generous at 25"s! On course is for the public having a day out these days!
TAPK, if a couple of quid travel and entrance fees make the difference between winning and losing, you aint playing big enough.
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