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Making myself late but the 1:30S has an odds on too!
Capital Lass is the postdata pick, has consistent RPRs to her name (2nd best last time run only higher rating from favourite) and 16/1 with Sporting Odds looks a huge price.
1pt ew Capital Lass 16/1
A lot of systems simply post up the selection and the result, but I always find this very unhelpful (though if it wins money who cares?). Unfortunately this system is based on opinion as well as a structure and so the selections are my responsibility and I live or die by them. The one word to sum up today’s thus fair is:
Disaster.
A nowhere and two 4ths.
Postmortem time
1) The unplaced one was in the first. The 2nd favourite did actually place and briefly trouble the favourite, the 3rd home was the newcomer. The conclusion here is that, maybe I am trying to save face, I can’t be sure, but the race was not suitable. We have 16 odd runners and are getting 1/5 1-2-3. The concept of e/w thievery is somewhat diminished. Therefore in the future I will not include races of this nature unless the favourite is 1/3 or shorter (at this level punting the 2nd fav has to be value bet).
2) All of the favourites won. Can’t do much about this but the system works on the premise that the jollies WILL get beat sometimes. If the odds-on shots win then it is never going to make much profit.
3) Two of my selections were on improvers rather than those that had shown form. The 1:20 was a messy race with the 3rd horse varying greatly throughout the race but it never was The Speaker (sent off at 20/1). When I now think that i expect the horse to stay 11f futher than it had previously run over on Heavy ground on its hurdles debut it was a no brainer. Now it is likely coincendence that the one that WAS 3rd best in the book over hurdles was 3rd home but with hindsight if this was a suitable race that should of been the bet.
3) Market drifters. I got 2 value bets (16/1 – 12/1) (16/1 – 11/1) and one bad value bet (12/1 – 20/1) the bad value bet was inclined to either drift badly or be backed right in. I should of checked the exchanges to see the confidence behind The Speaker. I didn’t and got a bad value which I subsequently topped up at 20/1. (bad move)
I don’t intend stopping the systme on one bad day but rather intend improving it. The target for the end of the year is for this system to be +100pts in profit.
Loss 6pts
Overall Profit +4.05pts (I think)
3:40 Warwick
I think this favourite can be sunk. The three interesting opponents are Running Hot, Thedreamstillalive and Alfadora.
Thedreamstill alive has the best form but has to prve itself over distance and going, it hasn’t jumped a fence for a year, has to prove it retains all its ability and might bounce. There are too many ifs and buts here.
Alfadora is interesting. It is still a maiden and was damn poor over hurdles but if you believe the RPR then it better all of those efforts fto over fences. It ought to improve for experince too. However my reservations are it isn’t very consistent and I’m just doubting that RPR of the last race. Was it really that good? The price is decent enough though.
Running Hot – 9 starts, no wins 5 places. Its best ever run was its debut which is a worry, which was also over fences. The positives here are that the trip and ground should be fine and that it is technically well handicapped. It only lost by a shd last time too so one hopes it is now getting its eye in. the 7lb claimer doesn’t inspire confindence however. If the favourite buggers this up then this is the most likely horse to take advantage.
1pt ew Running Hot @ 11/2 (Betfred)
Didn’t see the race but nowhere.
-2pts
>> I need to have a think about this e/w betting clearly.
I will persist
13:30W 1pt ew Mystery Pips @ 16/1 (has a best odds guarantee too si if it drifts you get SP – Betfred)
Sent off at 40/1 and that said all you needed to know.
13:50H Native City is 50/1 on the exchanges but 20/1 with the bookies so i am trying SP.
1pt ew
-6pts:angry:
What irritates the hell out of me is that Farmers Lad was 13/2 to win on Betfair on the off and 8/15 to place :o. Don’t see what else I could of done tbh.
I think this thread has run its course. The new SP system means taking an SP is not a viable option, but taking a morinng a price is committing too early, accepting big o/rs and risking non-runners which really ruins the bet.
It may simply be a case of me losing my touch/desire but while the system keeps turning over losses it is impractical and unfair to keep running the system and let it clog up the systems page.
I’ll set up a system for the flat season I promise;), but until then I’ll go back to being an occassional punter.
I think you’re right about SP betting. It is more of a dead duck than it’s ever been and it is becoming depressingly worse.
Also, there’s isn’t great value in most firm’s early prices and not much liquidity on the exchanges.
The optimum strategy on most days is to wait until the first show, then consult the exchanges and decide if the price is worth the bet. It’s still worth checking the odds at regular intervals from about 10 am onwards because you will still find value bets, but check the over-rounds on some of the books at lesser meetings. You wouldn’t normally try to buck such percentages.
I’m having a break at the moment and will resume betting in April.
Just to reiterate what I am saying, lets look at the 2:20 race at Towcester.
Marodima 8/13<br>Bonnets Pieces 4/1<br>Primondo 10/1<br>Jamadast Roma 14/1<br>Petit Turk 16/1<br>Jungleland 25/1<br>Jerry Lee 100/1<br>Blaze On 100/1<br>Mitrash 100/1
Convincing myself that Jamadast Roma is a good bet (forecast 11/2) I check the exchanges. The place market tells me I am getting a good deal.
Marodima 1/8<br>Bonnets Piece 4/11<br>Primondo 6/4<br>Petit Turk 9/4<br>Jamadast Roma 5/2<br>Jungleland 15/4<br>Blaze On 10/1<br>Mitrash 20/1<br>Jerry Lee anything between 20/1 to 50/1
and then I look at the win market.
Marodima 6/10<br>Bonnets Pieces 4/1<br>Primondo 12/1<br>Petit Turk 18/1<br>Jamadast Roma 30/1 :o <br>Jungleland 45/1<br>169/1 bar
Rationalising it, how can I take 14/1 about a horse that is 30/1 elsewhere? Based on the prices I am getting the best value by going for Bonnets Pieces or Primondo? Would going for one of two guarantee long term profit?
(gone for primondo btw)
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