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Euromillions Going Positive….

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  • #4149
    wit
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2155

    jackpot this friday estimated GBP 125m

    chances of winning 1 in 76.275m, meaning that at <br>GBP 1.50 a pop anything over a jackpot of GBP 114.4m makes it a value proposition.

    will a mega syndicate come in to cover all combinations in the hope of being sole winner and taking a "1.01" profit of GBP 11m ?

    for lesser pockets, there’s an interesting calculation/strategy site at

    http://www.saliu.com/euro_millions.html

    best regards    

    wit

    #98185
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    It’s an interesting situation.

    I don’t know the rules of this lottery, so I’ve some questions?

    (1) What do you have to do to win? For example, in the "traditional" uk lottery, you need 6 balls matched out of 6. What’s the rules for this one?

    (2) What other prizes are there available? Again, using the UK, 3 balls or more return prizes.

    will a mega syndicate come in to cover all combinations in the hope of being sole winner and taking a "1.01" profit of GBP 11m ? <br> <br>Assuming there are some consolation prizes, they’d make a lot more than just 11m as all the little prizes would add up.

    I’d be curious to know how much such a syndicate would expect to pick up, assuming they were the only jockpot winner.

    Steve <br>

    #98190
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    :biggrin: :biggrin:

    The jockpot is a new lottery I’m trying to start.

    There will be 3 levels of prizes.

    4 balls matched: 6 months supply of Irn Bru and directions to the nearest NHS dentist.

    5 balls matched: Lifetime immunity from prosecution for breaking the glasses off the statue of Donald Dewar.

    6 balls matched: a big stick with a nail hammered into the end plus 30 minutes in a dark alley with Jack McConnel.

    With prizes like this, I predict the jockpot will become a raving success.

    Steve

    #98192
    wit
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2155

    hi steve

    Euromillions requires you to select 5 numbers from <br>1 – 50 and a further two "star" numbers  from 1 – 9.    You need all 7 right to get the jackpot.

    In mainland Europe its 2 Euros a pop, in the UK its £1.50 (meaning at current rates 2.2 Euros a pop) .

    The rules are online only in French or Flemish (this being a Belgian lottery):

    http://www.euromillions.be/show.aspx?cu … id=misc/al

    You can win 12 ways from 5+2 numbers correct down to 2+1 numbers correct:

    La part des mises dévolue aux gagnants d’un tirage du jeu « Euro Millions » et au « Fonds Booster », visée à l’alinéa 1er, est affectée selon les pourcentages mentionnés dans le tableau ci-dessous.

    POURCENTAGE DE LA PART DES MISES (50%)<br>VISÉE A L’ALINÉA 1er<br> <br>RANG 1  (5+2)<br>22,00%<br> <br>RANG 2 ( 5+1)<br> 7,40%<br> <br>RANG 3 (5+0)<br> 2,10%<br> <br>RANG 4 (4+2)<br> 1,50%<br> <br>RANG 5 (4+1)<br> 1,00%<br> <br>RANG 6 (4+0)<br> 0,70%<br> <br>RANG 7 (3+2)<br> 1,00%<br> <br>RANG 8 (3+1)<br> 5,10%<br> <br>RANG 9 (2+2)<br> 4,40%<br> <br>RANG 10 (3+0)<br> 4,70%<br> <br>RANG 11 (1+2)<br> 10,10%<br> <br>RANG 12 (2+1)<br> 24,00%<br> <br>“FONDS  BOOSTERâ€ÂÂ

    #98194
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Hi Wit

    To go back to your original question:

    will a mega syndicate come in to cover all combinations in the hope of being sole winner and taking a "1.01" profit of GBP 11m ?

    it would be a risky strategy. What would happen if there were 3 winners? It could cost a good few millions.

    There are some interesting similarities with game theory.

    For example, imagine there was a competition.

    It costs £1 to enter and the (sole) winner is the ticket drawn at random from all entries.

    The prize is £10,000 divided by the number of entrants. So, of 10 people enter, one of them will get £1,000, the others 0.

    Obviously, any less than 100 entrants and these entrants would have a positive expectation. Any more than 100, the expectation would be negative.

    I’d love to see someone run this nationally and see what happens.

    Steve<br>

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