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“Would be nice to speak to Kingscote privately to know how much he had left under the bonnet“
Good point and significant
Agreed Clive,
Although the actual form is not outstanding there are reasons to be very positive about Desert Crown.That turn of foot was breathtaking. Had he been held on for longer am sure he’d have won by further / shown a higher rating.
As I said prior to the race, Stoute is not known for hurrying his horses. Indeed, over the years suspect he’s had more progressive four year olds than any other trainer. For Stoute to have a horse who’s shown such good form after just two starts (Dante) was very surprising. Ditto after three. Has any other Stoute horse shown better form that early? Doubt it.
Sea The Stars improved into a Timeform 140 horse after he won The Derby.
Whether Desert Crown reaches 140+ remains to be seen, but I am confident he will be improving for some time yet.So I agree with Matt Rennie…. “… he could be the best Derby winner since Sea The Stars”.
Value Is EverythingCheers. It’s all moaning otherwise
A mate of mine lays short price big race favs as quite a strategy when he’s against something Place lays being a particular fav which is I think a good one for stamina doubt contenders who will of course totally blow out if they fail
He likes hyped Irish Cheltenham novices too
Yea ginger. I backed him mainly because of what we had seen but the clear positivity from stoute. He’s really buzzing about this one isn’t he and correct that he wouldn’t have risked the Dante, a real target race of his, unless he knew this was a top class horse
The way trainers operate and target is underrated factor imo
I think one of the main reasons some who genuinely consider ante-post quotes shockingly short don’t lay often only slightly bigger requests on the exchange if it can involve tying up money for a long time.
I’ve had a chequered (euphemism for mostly rubbish) year ante-post on the Classics.
1,000 Guineas: 7/2 Inspiral NR, 7/1 Tenebrism (unplaced), 14/1 Homeless Songs (wrong Guineas).
2,000 Guineas: 5/1 and 7/2 Native Trail (got beat), 14/1 Perfect Power (unplaced).
Oaks: 33/1 Mise En Scene NR, 8/1 With The Moonlight (drifted and last), 8/1 Emily Upjohn (where’s the luck? But never mind because….), 10/1 Tuesday (finally!).
Derby: 11/4 Luxembourg NR, 3/1 Stone Age (drifted and unplaced), 12/1 Changingoftheguard (unplaced), 11.5 Nations Pride (unplaced) and 9/4 Desert Crown (drifted but bolted in, refusing the Derby damage – a bit!).
Desert Crown is already a good Derby winner and potentially a very good one, but my personal hypeometer likes to take the hype a race at a time.
Plus I look at OR more than Timeform as the latter’s numbers are more inflated than fuel pump prices.
Mixing up Timeform and OR is like mixing up currencies.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Regarding ante-post:
Bookmakers nowadays aren’t going to give as good odds anti-post about lightly raced types. Because there’s far less secrecy in today’s racing. More bookmakers and more punters are in the know. Connections are encouraged (some might say obliged) to speak to the press a lot more than they once were. Albeit you do get quite a lot of morning glory’s and over-hyped types. But Desert Crown and Emily Upjohn pretty much proved bookmakers right in their ante-post books. Before the Dante and Musidora both were extremely short for what they’d actually achieved on course.
Value Is EverythingGinge- I know you’re Timeform’s number one fan but I’d love to see even one single piece of form that entitled Sea The Stars to a 140 rating.
“That turn of foot was breathtaking. Had he been held on for longer am sure he’d have won by further / shown a higher rating.”
Agree. If Kingscote had held onto him (and he has admitted he went too soon) I think he would have won by 5 lengths and we would have had none of this nonsense about Westover being an unlucky loser.
I saw Lydia Hislop interviewing Rob Hornby. The way they were talking you would have thought Westover was seriously unlucky. I just do not get it. He should have been second but he had no chance with the winner.
I believe Desert Crown is very good based on the turn of foot he showed to settle the race – but the absence of any Group 1 winner in the race and outsiders filling the places just puts a little bit of doubt in my mind.
“Has any other Stoute horse shown better form that early? Doubt it.”
Workforce also won the Derby on his third start after a similar preparation: maiden and Dante.
“Plus I look at OR more than Timeform as the latter’s numbers are more inflated than fuel pump prices.
Mixing up Timeform and OR is like mixing up currencies”.—————————
For sure punters should not mix Timeform and OR’s up, I’d have it more like fahrenheit and centigrade. But my point was 140+ is the Timeform rating associated with great ability and Sea The Stars greatness became evident only after the Derby.
And… In my experience ORs lag behind Timeform, particularly in identifying horses with exceptional ability. Time being much more accurate than the old way of choosing which horse has run at or near its best and working ratings of the other horses out from there… That said, for the amateur there is little alternative as the main basis to handicapping than the old way.
Value Is Everything“for the amateur”
And this, in a nutshell, is why GT just can’t help himself and will always attract flak here for being the undisputed TRF King of the patronising and condescending remark.
Of course, Timeform’s core figures and their time figures (still compiled by my old school friend Chris Wright last time we spoke) are not one and the same.
All good fun, though – Timeform ratings (not time figures) overrate horses all the time, but the ones that they get spectacularly wrong are often conveniently ignored.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I thought at the time with sts that it was a derby horse that won the guineas nicely over an inadequate distance and that was that.
Wonderful horse. Rated him 270
Yes CAS, if I remember rightly Workforce was only 2nd in the Dante before winning the Derby.
…And went on to win the Arc.
Value Is EverythingI think Stoute said that he wasn’t prepared right for the Dante and they were surprised how well he ran considering
For a reticent trainer that was some indicator
Not going back to the trainer comments discussion but…
“for the amateur”
And this, in a nutshell, is why GT just can’t help himself and will always attract flak here for being the undisputed TRF King of the patronising and condescending remark.
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Stop trying to twist what I say, Ian!
Timeform is a massive organisation with hundreds of thousands of race times in its database.
WE “amateurs” can not hope to use time in anything like the same way because WE do not have the same information available to US.
Value Is Everything
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