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Apparently 5 horses this century have won the Derby with a sprinter as damsire
3 were by galileo
One was galileo
The other was sea the stars who was galileos half brotherDesert crown being by Nathaniel, a son of the mighty galileo, has that seemingly all important connection to that bloodline that does well with pace on the other side of the pedigree
He did run some very fast sectionals in the Dante though, is inexperienced and did hang to his right
I won’t be backing him myself but would happily watch him bolt in
tbh Had Desert Crown pulled like Emily Upjohn did in the Musidora and / or quickened two out and then just held on… Then I think you’d have a really good point about his breeding, FF. However, Desert Crown settled very well in the Dante and was going further and further away at the line… And given the latter, his wandering a little close home is unlikely to be due to stamina limitations. Much more easily put down to inexperience and being on the outside of the field (only his second lifetime start). Yes, on the one hand inexperience can also play a part in a horse’s downfall at Epsom… But equally, Sir Michael has never been one to rush a horse’s education and the fact Desert Crown has done so much in so little time imo strongly suggests there is a lot more improvement to come.
Value Is EverythingThere are enough negatives not to be taking the short price imo
You’ll find much better 13/8 shots with less questions and less opposition
Value is everything you could say
13/8 would be too short for me at this stage FF.
But I can’t see many people taking 13/8 when 15/8 is currently available on Betfair… And directly after the Dante was freely available @ 5/2.I’d say Desert Crown has a better than 1 in 3 chance.
Value Is EverythingLooks like a big field and the ground could still be on the easy side come Saturday.
Course bookmakers with no ante-post liabilities will want to get Desert Crown.
And others may be backed against him.
I could see him ending up circa 2/1.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If the going is on the easy side then Desert Crown will drift and Stone Age will shorten..
Value Is Everything17 declared – only Eydon withdrawn.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"My selection is CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD
Nothing special at 2 but has left that well behind this year, progressive with an easy win at Dundalk followed by a comfortable win from a decent sort at Chester.
By Galileo out of a decent miler mare giving a good combination of stamina and speed.
The race has got more puzzling by the day. First united nations doesnt run when it looks a cracking option and now seamie goes for star of india. Star of india looks to me similar to magician in that doesnt really stay the 12f but in a muddling race which may well happen could do a wings of eagles or por moi. Stone age to me has looked the likiest winner for weeks but seamie on star of india has me doubting now. I assume we are looking at good ground for the derby but theirs nothing to suggest changing of the guard wont take some stopping if kicking on at tattenham corner. The usual tricky derby puzzle. Cant wait.
Interesting tactics from SkyBet, they’ve dangled the 6 place carrot which is significantly better than anyone else but are only top price/joint in the market on the front two and operating a near 140% book as I type. No BOG with them in the extra place races either not that I get BOG from them anymore anyway
“First united nations doesnt run when it looks a cracking option and now seamie goes for star of india”.
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tbh I don’t think Seamie has the choice.
Noticed before apart from Ryan, Coolmore like keeping with jockeys who’ve been successful before on the horse.Seamie Heffernan rode Changingoftheguard twice and was beaten twice.
Wayne Lordon has ridden Changingoftheguard once and won once (by 6 lengths).Seamie has ridden Star Of India once and won once.
Jockey bookings are the ones expected.
Value Is EverythingReinvested my place returns from concert hall into
Changingoftheguard 11.50
Piz Badile 11.50
Star of India 18.5Dutched those 3
Not particularly strong on any of them, wouldn’t be having a bet if it wasn’t the derby
Weather forecast indicates possible rain and the CoC is notorious for watering even if the forecast isn’t great.
I’d be waiting until closer to post time if considering smashing into the favourite who I don’t think would want it testing.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Currently raining at Epsom and it’s forecast to last for at least the next hour and possibly throughout the night and on into tomorrow morning.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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