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Ultra has met with setback(splint),could miss The Derby
That’s a pity for his supporters but it seems like he was facing an impossible task anyway, as Us Army Ranger seems to be the new Shergar at 5s and 6s for the Derby already.
However good Us Army Ranger is, he is already better than Us Navy Seal, who was reported to be something special early in his career. The son of War Front went off warm favourite for a Curragh maiden and was stone last.
Once in the betting for the 2000 Guineas, it was said Us Navy Seal needed more time. They weren’t kidding and it was more than a year before we saw him again. He didn’t look to have improved for his hiatus and it would be a Chelmsford maiden where he finally got off the mark. Last seen sporting a visor and running over 2 miles at Chelmsford, where he was beaten seventeen lengths off a mark of 84, it seems safe to say that the now gelded Us Navy Sloth, sorry Seal, hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty entries of his youth.
It seems like Us Army Ranger is expected to make up for the military moniker set.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ultra has met with setback(splint),could miss The Derby
Would be amazed if he runs in this. Even a minor splint problem will mean at least three weeks on the easy list.
The plunge in us navy ranger’s price is bonkers. It’s looks like he a very smart colt but there a long way to go to Epsom. I think the lack of an outstanding colt at the moment has led to this allied to the fact that there is unlikely to be a Derby contender in the guineas field. Interesting to see that it wasn’t even favourite in its maiden. Very strange.
Ballysax stakes on sunday looks a cracker. Got Idaho,Cook Islands Beacon Rock from AOB and my derby horse MOONLIGHT MAGIC runs as well though i hear a few rumours he may go irish derby and skip epsom i hope not.
Darren, if he is good enough he will run, no question about that. I hope he is good enough
Quite liked Cook Islands and Idaho as AOB possibles for the Derby coming into the season, but I don’t know what to think anymore with the money for US Army Ranger.
Nevertheless, my Derby hope for the moment is still very much Tathqeef. I’ve just seen that he’s entered in the Feilden which was of course won by Golden Horn last year, so gotta take that as a good sign.
Quite liked Cook Islands and Idaho as AOB possibles for the Derby coming into the season, but I don’t know what to think anymore with the money for US Army Ranger.
Nevertheless, my Derby hope for the moment is still very much Tathqeef. I’ve just seen that he’s entered in the Feilden which was of course won by Golden Horn last year, so gotta take that as a good sign.
I liked Idaho’s debut win last year. After the race Aidan said he probably wouldn’t run him again that season, as the horse didn’t need another race.
Of course, Aidan was probably told that the “Boys” wanted another run and they pitched him straight into a Group 1 in gutters in France, where he somehow went off hot favourite despite coming in from maiden company.
Idaho never looked like winning and I have to question the value of running him there. He may have been interesting at 10/1 in the Ballysax but meets the soft surface he failed on in France again this time.
Cook Islands and Moonlight Magic are joint favourites at 9/4 for the Ballysax on the opening show. For all that Moonlight Magic is unbeaten and could be anything, I prefer Cook Islands of the two. Jim Bolger’s colt ran at 7 and 9 furlongs at two and wouldn’t be guaranteed to get the Derby trip in my book. It’s only a mile and a quarter in the Ballysax but the ground is heavy in places at the moment and I prefer Cook Islands because I feel he will be the more assured stayer.
Beacon Rock should not be dismissed lightly, even if Ryan is on the perceived first string. I feel this horse may be good when stamina is at a premium this season.
I have settled on Cook Islands at 9/4 and Alice Springs in the fillies trial at 11/8, as I feel her form is at the best level for now. That’s my double for Sunday anyway.
Tathqeef needs to make monster improvement but you never know after Golden Horn last year. One word of warning would be Hamdan entering his colts in the Derby by default, so they are not always in there because they are necessarily good enough. Foundation and Lord Napier were the ones I heard were working well on the Gosden gallops the other week. Good luck though, I love ante-post ambition
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sunday is definitely a watching brief. The ground could well decide the outcomes. I’d go for cook island and Alice springs but until I see them as in the flesh I wouldn’t back them. Aidens horses seem more forward than in previous years and his horses should be in the shake up. Moonlight magic could be a very good horse and the race will tell us more. Hopefully we will soon have a horse near the top of the Derby betting who has won more than a maiden.
Bit gutted over Moonlight Magic unless he bounces back on better ground i doubt he go to Epsom now.Idaho ran great race to be 2nd i think turn form around with winner he would
He was really disappointing. Hopefully he will get another chance in another trial but there was very little by way of positives to take out of that.
I have always worried about Moonlight Magic’s stamina for the Derby trip. It looked to me that he got tired today and perhaps that was a lack of fitness but in all honesty I would expect the O’Brien runners to come on more for their runs today. I would be thinking of races shorter than the Derby for this horse now.
Cook Islands was the other disappointment for me and although there wasn’t much between him and Beacon Rock I felt the latter colt ran the better race. Perhaps Beacon Rock won’t have the pace for the Derby but this was a promising effort with an eye towards the St Leger, where he has been my long term pick since last season.
Idaho ran a cracker and looked like he was going to put this to bed in quite taking fashion at one stage. He was outstayed in the end but looks like the one to take from the race. I feel better ground will suit this horse and he ran better than I felt he would on the ground today and his maiden win caught my eye last year. I am sure that I referenced him as a good prospect earlier in this thread or elsewhere on the forum.
As I mentioned about Cook Islands when he won his maiden, it took him a long time to wear down the leaders and he looks a dour sort. I felt he might be one to watch out for at Royal Ascot in the Queen’s Vase.
It may be back to the drawing board for Moonlight Magic, he just didn’t seem to get home today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not looking good for my Derby fancy, Tathqeef. Started off as favourite in the Feilden, but has now drifted to least fancied runner in a four horse field.
Need a new Derby bet 😥 Was an optimistic punt given the terrible form of that maiden. Bhutan, here I come.
Need a new Derby bet
Was an optimistic punt given the terrible form of that maiden. Bhutan, here I come. Gosden thought the ground had gone against him. Considering inexperience, conformation and the way he travelled – I think Tathqeef is likely to be best of the four Fielden runners in time given better going Sea Bird. Although had he been a Derby horse would probably have won despite conditions.
Value Is EverythingNeed a new Derby bet
Was an optimistic punt given the terrible form of that maiden. Bhutan, here I come. Gosden thought the ground had gone against him. Considering inexperience, conformation and the way he travelled – I think Tathqeef is likely to be best of the four Fielden runners in time given better going Sea Bird. Although had he been a Derby horse would probably have won despite conditions.
Do agree with that assessment. I still think he will turn out to be a nice horse all things considered. But, yeah, probably too much to find to win a Derby at this point in time.
The Derby looks devoid of a solid contender with Us Army Ranger already desperately short and likely to go shorter should hot favourite Aasheq hose up at Navan as expected tomorrow.
I like Idaho as a bit of value at the moment. He was impressive in his maiden win before being pitched in on mud in a late season group 1. That was too much too soon in my opinion and seemed an unwise move.
In the Ballysax, he sat in the rear for most of the race and when he started his run he looked to be travelling better than the eventual winner Harzand. He went from being a couple of lengths behind that horse to a few lengths clear and in my opinion the lack of a run and the heavy going meant he tired and was outstayed.
By June, and on better ground at Epsom, Idaho’s burst of speed will be an asset and until something with an outstanding rating emerges he looks decent at 25/1 with the possibility that a win at somewhere like Chester could make him a serious contender in a so far uninspiring looking list. I would be putting him into one of the Chester trials if it were my choice.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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