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My long term prospect for the St Leger is Aidan’ O’Brien’s Beacon Rock.
The son of Galileo looks a colt crying out for at least a mile and a half and I believe he will be one of those still in the Leger field when the usual decimation of the class 12f horses has taken place and we are left scratching about for something with a bit of class who couldn’t quite cut it at the shorter classic trip.
In a normal year I wouldn’t think about backing him for the Derby but I believe there is a dearth of genuine contenders at the moment and the Epsom list is littered with one win maiden winners who have fantastic breeding but ridiculous odds for their actual achievements thus far.
Beacon Rock appeals at 40/1 in a year where I am struggling to remember such a lack of solid prospects at this stage.
Foundation looks the most bona fide contender for now. He was unlucky in the Racing Post Trophy and while experts have said he won’t stay, it always encourages me when Gosden starts a horse at a mile aged two. Midterm and Wajeez are silly prices in my mind and are there because of the trainer/breeding combination. Good luck to anyone who got on them early but they are not for me. Ultra and Zarak have the French hoodoo to overcome and I’ll pass on them.
Beacon Rock made good progress from a narrow maiden win to run well in group races. He was clearly outpaced in the Beresford before staying on best to finish third and he would have won it in another 50 yards or so. Again he could not quite go the pace in the Gp 3 Autumn stakes where Hugo Palmer’s Gifted Master made all and held on by half a length.
I think O’Brien’s colt should make good improvement for stepping up in trip and would expect to see him in something like the Chester Vase before having a crack at the Derby if he has made progress this winter. Joseph O’Brien gave him a name check when discussing the stable prospects for this season, in an interview where he also revealed that Air Force Blue had filled out into a monster of a colt.
All things considered I feel that 40/1 is too big a price for a horse from a powerful yard who is a son of Galileo and who progressed to a mark of 110 at two with the prospect that another half mile to travel will help him bridge the class gap.
Beacon Rock 40/1 (Coral) is my dark horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As I said last year the Derby is a watch and see until some of the trials come along.
Would anyone have backed Golden Horn this time last year ? NO
Wait for the trials and then start second guessing IMO
How aiden obrien gets on at Chester is usually an excellent indication of his future prospects. There is a dearth of good Derby prospects and maybe we could have another unraced at 2 winner. Obrien and gosden have a few very well bred staying types yet to run.
Us Army Ranger is entered to make his debut at The Curragh this Sunday. Aiden O’Brien used this race to launch the career of Ruler Of The World, who would win the Derby two months later.
By Galileo, out of Irish Oaks winner Moonshine, Us Army Ranger is the most prominent market representative from Ballydoyle.
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
I have seen Us Army Ranger as low as 12/1 for the Derby and that is ridiculous. He could be anything but we heard last year that John F Kennedy was the business and then not long afterwards he was being touted as a Triumph Hurdle contender.
I will take Foundation at 12/1 every day over an unraced horse at the same odds. Ruler Of The World was 25/1 after he had won, so 12/1 is utter nonsense and anyone taking that needs to see a Doctor, win or lose.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Aiden obrien off to a flyer with 2 wins at dundalk last night including Washington dc winning very easily. Only doubt regards horses like us army ranger is the very heavy going. Stable doesn’t usually fire straight away so could be he has horses well forward. Apart from deaville and johannes vermeer there doesn’t seem any realistic Derby hopes at ballydoyle.
I am not sure of the wisdom of sending horses to start their careers on this sort of ground at the Curragh today.
Us Army Ranger opened at 2/1 and has stayed there but all the money has been for Dermot Weld’s Dubawi colt Aasheq, who is generally odds on.
Obviously the thinking is that the Weld horse is more likely to be forward than Us Army Ranger and that the O’Brien colt could be the better long term prospect.
I have to say that the odds they are today looks a bit perverse compared to their odds for the Derby, with Us Army Ranger a best priced 20/1 for Epsom and Aasheq available at 50/1.
If you fancy the Weld horse as being a good prospect I would say taking the 50/1 is mandatory, because, if he wins well today those odds will collapse.
It is the sort of scenario where a big margin win would probably result in over-trimming of the odds, with little allowance for the bad conditions.
Dermot Weld had a winner at Cork on the 26th March in a 10f 3yo Maiden on soft/heavy. He was a hot favourite at 4/9 and the conditions were akin to a ploughed field. You had to question the merit of the form and the wisdom of some trainers in running horses in conditions that allowed the Weld horse, Harzand, come home to win by sixteen lengths. Aidan O’Brien had a runner in that one called Sean O’Casey and I read a preview that said the owners had reserved that name for many years, waiting for the right horse. It didn’t help the colt though, and he was stuffed 24 lengths, just caught for forth by Don Cossack 😉
I won’t play today and will probably treat the result with caution on this type of going.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A promising start for Us Army Ranger with a staying on win from warm favourite Aasheq.
Aidan’s horse travelled nicely enough but then seemed outpaced and was pushed along. It was a long, steady, run that he came with and it was relatively close home that he got on top.
Visually he seemed a better long term prospect than the Weld horse and I would expect the form to be confirmed in the future, although some may argue it may be different on faster going.
Predictably, the bookies cut Us Army Ranger in for the Epsom Derby. He’s generally 10s and 12s in most places now and I will leave that to souls of a more lemming like disposition. He may well be the new “Best horse I have ever trained” for Aidan O’Brien but the odds are a joke as far as I am concerned.
Two odds on favourites stuffed at the Curragh today and a short priced newcomer beat in the last. The punters love the bandwagon.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The hype has begun but that is more to do with the stable and the superb breeding. His breeding looks tailor made for 12f and he got better the further they went. I’d wait till he has ran in a trial on decent ground before backing him but it was a very encouraging run. Galileos who win first time out tend to be good so it looks promising. Looked a good race and obriens other two ran well as well. Their next runs should tell us how the form stacks up.
The Major General is the nearest thing to a form guide at the moment.
Beaten 7 and a quarter lengths today, he was previously beaten by Dermot Weld’s promising colt Tirmizi last year. On that occasion he was defeated nine lengths and the winner was rated 92 for his performance.
It will be interesting to see what Us Army Ranger receives for his success today but whatever it is he is clearly useful. He will improve for certain but he will need to do so and other horses will start coming out of the woodwork over the next several weeks.
There is barely any 12/1 left on Us Army Ranger for Epsom now, which would suggest that either this horse is the new Pegasus, or Aidan has a similar poor hand of colts, as he ultimately proved to have last year.
The best of luck to those who have backed Us Army Ranger, I feel his price is insanity after a maiden win on gutters in early April.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wouldn’t read much into major generals run last year. He still looked quite backward today unlike the first three who looked more forward. They were well strung out so as I said it’s the next runs by the third and fourth I will be looking at to give a decent yardstick to the form.
I wouldn’t read much into major generals run last year. He still looked quite backward today unlike the first three who looked more forward. They were well strung out so as I said it’s the next runs by the third and fourth I will be looking at to give a decent yardstick to the form.
It’s just a ball park comparison for now. There probably wasn’t much depth in today’s race.
The Racing Post have awarded Us Army Ranger 97 for his win, while the runner up got 95. Kellstorm got 88 for being third, so if the figures are correct he has improved a fair bit from his debut where he was 14 lengths plus behind an 84 rated maiden winner.
Aidan said the winner will have another race before the Derby for education and seemed keen to stress the jockey’s opinion that the horse has numerous gears and that he never had to reach the top one to win.
Not for me at the moment, although he is certainly well bred and promising. There are other well bred ones lurking though and Aidan mentioned that the Ballysax and other trials have still to be contested.
Brave if taking 10/1 at this stage. I waited until just before the Chester race and got 25/1 Ruler Of The World for Epsom, times have changed since then
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Some of us where on Ruler of the World before Chester, Steve
Shame it was for the bloody Leger mind you…….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Aidan elaborated that Us Army Ranger would either run in one of the Chester trials, or in the Derrinstown Stud trial on home, as his stepping stone to The Derby.
I noticed that Foundation has been nibbled at for the 2000 Guineas and if he can run well there you would imagine the Dante and the Derby will be the next step.
Looking at the Guineas field, I am struggling to see anything other than the Gosden colt who seems likely to be upped in trip going forward from Newmarket.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
i went through the guineas field as well last night steve(looking for derby horses) and apart from Foundation (which i have doubts about the derby trip) i to came up empty handed.
Each year you can look at the gns field and think,this could go onto to be a derby contender,but this year,these are thin to nil on the ground.
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