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The trends are maintained…
All of the previous 17 winners had an SP of 7/1 or shorter – 13/2 (tick)
21 of the previous 22 winners had won one or both of their last 2 races – win win (tick)
All of the previous 22 winners had finished in the first 3 places in their last race – win (tick)Only 3 followed those trends – 1st 2nd + 4th.
Keep smiling, there’s always next time.
“Lies, damned lies, and statistics” – I noticed you tipped Cloth of Stars trendyrich 😉
Puzzled by Steve’s assertion that Harzand was too short for him in the betting given that he was 14/1 best priced with the bookies (bigger on exchanges) in the morning and a low of 10/1. He appears not to have been heavily backed despite his price crashing to 13/2.
Wonder if they would have managed to get him down to 11/2 if Smullen had pulled him out at the start
As for the race itself, it clearly looked like the best horse on the day won but I would not be marking him up for his injury scare in the morning, it’s highly unlikely it affected him during the race and any problems if there are any, will be post race.
Thought Moore gave US Army a good ride, the horse is still inexperienced and just wasn’t good enough on the day although I could see him reversing the form, particularly on faster ground. Think they will be keen to run US Army over 10fs sometime but they will have to wait till after the Irish Derby and maybe the King George for that.Harzand goes down in history as the winner of the 2016 Derby, US Army Ranger was 2nd and Deauville 3rd and nothing is going to change that.
Sorry Jac, but I’m changing that right now. Idaho was third! 😉
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Puzzled by Steve’s assertion that Harzand was too short for him in the betting given that he was 14/1 best priced with the bookies (bigger on exchanges) in the morning and a low of 10/1.
I don’t do Mornings. 11am is early for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
US Army Ranger loses the race approaching 3f out when he is trapped behind a couple of horses, has to pulled out widest while Harzand has already made his move. USAR must make up 5 lengths between the 2f and 1f pole but can’t sustain it against the more professional and strong stayer Harzand. With the experience gained and in a smaller field Irish Derby, I would fancy him to reverse the form with the winner, especially on quicker ground.
Whatever others think of the quality, Mr Weld seems to believe he has a pretty good horse. This from The Guardian:
What, he was asked here, was the key to producing horses fit enough to run for their lives on the other side of the world? Luck and good staff were his initial responses but, after a moment’s reflection, a deeper thought seemed to strike him. “You’ve got to have the right horse,” he said, smiling. “It’s like The Magnificent Seven, you’ve got to pick the right guys for the job.”
More than a decade ago, he had a similarly mischievous thought while telling the Racing Post about his guerilla tactics in raiding big races abroad. “Like the Indians, you have to go in, attack, and get out. I do that pretty well, learning when to attack and when not to. I don’t fight every battle; I choose my battlegrounds.”
Harzand goes down in history as the winner of the 2016 Derby, US Army Ranger was 2nd and Deauville 3rd and nothing is going to change that.
Sorry Jac, but I’m changing that right now. Idaho was third!
LOL Steve..thank you for putting the course of history right..I was trying to mark up my Saturday comp and post on here at the same time
Considering how low key a lot of folk thought the Oaks and Derby were going to be both turned out top class performances.
Any idea why they left the tongue tie off Minding on Friday? Noticed her sticking her tongue out at Architecture as she breezed past and it seemed to make no difference to her running a brilliant race..so pleased that I saw her at Newmarket she is a legend.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Anyone else feel a bit sorry for John Oxx? Contrasting fortunes, Weld wins a derby and Oxx still to train a winner this year 😥
Foundation just ran like a drain in France.
That Dante is looking a lot more shaky now.
I said after the Craven that I was unsure Foundation had trained on. He has been woeful twice now and excuses are getting a bit thin.
The idea of him winning the Eclipse is fantasy island material now in my opinion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Foundation just ran like a drain in France.
That Dante is looking a lot more shaky now.
I said after the Craven that I was unsure Foundation had trained on. He has been woeful twice now and excuses are getting a bit thin.
The idea of him winning the Eclipse is fantasy island material now in my opinion.
Yep. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but the Dante doesn’t look up to much. The only thing I will say is the ground so far for the major races has been unusually soft. When we get better ground we may well see things pan out differently. US Army Ranger is one horse I think will be far better on faster ground.
Foundation I’d forget about, going nowhere.
With US ARMY RANGER it reminded me of dancing brave when he was second in his derby, clearly the horse has a huge amount of ability and must be a big player in races like the King George and Arc.
You need to learn mate that Ryan Moore is the best jockey in the world, which means he never makes mistakes. It was the horse’s fault, just as A P McCoy said on Channel 4. Whatever possessed Graham Cunningham to question why the horse was held up out the back is beyond me – given the time he would probably try to confuse us with some sort of nonsense that being by Galileo out of a Dalakhani Irish Oaks winner his abundant stamina should have been made more use of. Poppycock! How dare he have the temerity to even imply criticism of the best jockey in the world.
All that baloney you may have read about Lester Piggott nearly always being handy at Tattenham Corner is, well, just baloney. Trust us mate, Ryan Moore is THE best jockey that has ever lived, and simply does not make mistakes – after all if he did, all of the racing broadcasters would put us right, not to mention the posters on here.
I cant make my mind up if you are being serious or sarcastic………..
Either way it’s a cracking postBlackbeard to conquer the World
Foundation just ran like a drain in France.
That Dante is looking a lot more shaky now.
I said after the Craven that I was unsure Foundation had trained on. He has been woeful twice now and excuses are getting a bit thin.
The idea of him winning the Eclipse is fantasy island material now in my opinion.
Yep. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but the Dante doesn’t look up to much. The only thing I will say is the ground so far for the major races has been unusually soft. When we get better ground we may well see things pan out differently. US Army Ranger is one horse I think will be far better on faster ground.
Foundation I’d forget about, going nowhere.
Foundation is a very poor man’s Telescope
Horse had next to not much chance on todays going so would be better judged on good to firm but would be vulnerable to anything with a bit of speed on that kind of going..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I did say it was a terrible Dante and that Wings of Desire is a plodding donkey…turns out I am spot on
I was seriously underwhelmed by the thought of watching this years Derby but then found myself getting very emotional that my beloved Sea the Stars had sired a Derby winner.
I did say it was a terrible Dante and that Wings of Desire is a plodding donkey…turns out I am spot on
My first feeling was that it was a poor Dante because of my concerns regarding Foundation.
It’s not really hindsight on my part saying it looks bad now, because, I also said plenty at the time about Foundation’s woeful effort in the Craven being a potential dent in the form.
Sometimes you get a gut feeling and in the Craven my gut said Foundation had not trained on.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I did say it was a terrible Dante and that Wings of Desire is a plodding donkey…turns out I am spot on
My first feeling was that it was a poor Dante because of my concerns regarding Foundation.
It’s not really hindsight on my part saying it looks bad now, because, I also said plenty at the time about Foundation’s woeful effort in the Craven being a potential dent in the form.
Sometimes you get a gut feeling and in the Craven my gut said Foundation had not trained on.
Am confused Steve.
If you thought the Dante form was so poor why did you back/tip Wings Of Desire? I feel Wings Of Desire should improve most and I am backing him to wear down Cloth Of Stars in the final furlong today.
To me, Foundation may well have a temperament problem which makes him inconsistent. Or may be “soft” is too soft for him. Foundation only finished 1 3/4 lengths behind Wings Of Desire in the Dante on good-firm ground – form which looks very similar to Foundation’s 2 year old form. So can not see how Foundation “has not trained on”.
I backed Wings Of Desire after the Dante, but when Epsom had the rain laid a lot of it back. Dante form may or may not be good, but – for me – at the moment Dante horses deserve to be judged after running under similar conditions to York.
Value Is Everythingyes you’re right dancing brave comparisons are excessive although that race panned out somewhat similar
It may look similar at first glance, but no, the two races are very different.
US Army Ranger dropped out off an overly strong pace. That is not an opinion, that’s fact – which can be seen by sectional times.
Those at the front were travelling at a pace too fast for their own good and were never going to keep it up. Those at the back (including US Army Ranger) had the advantage of going the correct pace for conditions. Held up horses making up ground from the back as the leaders slowed.
Dancing Brave was held up off slow fractions. So Dancing Brave made up a remarkable amount of ground in the straight considering leaders themselves were quickening. An outstanding performance by the runner-up.
To compare US Army Ranger with Dancing Brave is unfair on a truly Great horse.
Value Is EverythingClearly knows nothing the ginger kid probably a man who punts 10 pound a week
Apparently I don’t bet as much as you Goreisking. 😆
Value Is Everything
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