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Agree that Carlton House’s excuses withered once the over head reply showed how far back the eventual winner had to come from. I would give him another chance though as the setback which meant he missed a piece of work may have been a factor.
I cannot understand how the form can be crabbed. The first five home in Sea The Stars’ Derby were separated by about 2 1/4 lengths, and the time was the quickest race compared to standard of the day – and 3 seconds faster than yesterday’s Coronation Cup contested by two genuine Group 1 performers.
The four who finished close up included a Dante Winner, Chester Vase winner and 2,000 Guuineas third, with another Group 1 winner in Recital not far behind in 6th.
I don’t think horses like Pour Moi will ever win their races by far due to their extreme waiting tactics. But once you add in the huge amount of ground he was asked to make up in the closing stages, you have to think he is an exceptional animal as indeed his trainer firmly believes he is comparing favourably with the great Peintre Celebre whom he also trained to classic glory. What is more, he did something the great Dancing Brave was unable to do in sacrificing nearly15 lengths approaching the straight and still managing to get up in the dying strides.
It is disapponting Fabre wants to take the traditional French trainers’ Arc route. I would love to see him go to the Curragh for the Irish Derby and then onto Ascot for a potential clash with last year’s Derby winner Workforce. I suppose given his owners there may be a chance that Fabre might be persuaded to follow in Hurricane Run’s hoofprints and take in the Irish Derby.
Sea The Stars Derby was not a vintage one on form, though he did it easily and better than distances indicate. Only later did he put up the brilliant form performances.
Pour Moi’s time may have been the fastest on tthe day (comparing it with Racing Post Standard Times). But it was barely a second better than the first race which was a handicap. So it can not be rated anywhere near exceptional TIME.
Not that it was a slowly run one either. Unlike Dancing Brave / Shahrastani’s. That day the commentator even says about the pace finally quickening in the home straight. So Dancing Brave was trying to quicken at the same time as those in front were quickening. I believe Dancing Brave clocked near-ni sprint fractions if I remember rightly. It is one thing to come from last to first in a soundly run race, quite another in a steadily run affair.
I can not rate the form exceptional either, Treasure Beach and Memphis Tennessee probably improved, but by how much? Carlton House probably did too. Native Khan probably didn’t stay. Recital didn’t act, Seville was heavily eased.
Although Pour Moi is better than distances indicate, he surely can not yet be rated as "exceptional". Of course if Treasure Beach goes on to win the Irish Derby by 5 lengths, I’d be willing to change my mind.
Workforce was a much better horse at this stage. He won’t, but if Pour Moi ran in the King George next time out, both Workforce and So You Think would have to be ahead of him in the betting.
Value Is EverythingIt’s disappointing that the connections of Carlton House appear to be complaining that they were unlucky. If Pour Moi had lost, Andre Fabre and team would have had greater grounds for complaint. The horse skidded round Tattenham Corner, made ground on Carlton House only to become unbalanced and lose it again, and nevertheless flew at the finish. He won despite setbacks, whereas Carlton House couldn’t overcome them.
The next time we see Pour Moi race will most probably be at Longchamps in October.
I think he will have the measure of the older horses. He has more natural speed and a better turn of foot than either Workforce or So You Think.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I see that Carlton House’s connections are falling back on the old "If the race had been run differently, we might have had a different result" excuse, instead of acknowledging that they were beaten by a better horse on the day (in fact, two better horses – let’s not forget Treasure Beach). Anyone could say that about any race ("Well, if my horse hadn’t fallen at the first fence and if the winner had unseated at the last, we might have had a different result !"),so for me, that is a totally lame excuse, designed to cover the fact that their horse was not good enough on the day, in the way that the race was run.
I had no financial interest in the race and never considered Carlton House to be any type of "good thing", and as a staunch Republican, I have to admit that I tired very quickly of the almost total concentration on the Queen’s horse, to the almost total exclusion of everyone else.Anyone watching might have thought that there was only one horse in the race !
For me, Pour Moi showed a very good turn of foot to win and was the best horse on the day. The fact that he was still several lengths behind Carlton House at Tattenham Corner, having gone even wider than the favourite, and still had a few lengths to make up in the last two furlongs, yet managed to win going away, says much for his talent as well as for the tactical ability of his jockey, though Michel Barzalona’s stirrup standing antics so close to the line were astonishing !
Let us not forget that Carlton House still could not get past Treasure Beach, and credit too to the under-rated Memphis Tennessee, who ran a very gallant race and held on well to the lead for so long.Maybe Carlton House will win a top race one day in a field full of Group 1 winners – who knows ? – he certainly has a top trainer – but I remain to be convinced, although I am not sure that Pour Moi’s tactics would be as suitable in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe as they were here.
It will be an interesting summer.
Haven’t seen what connections of Carlton House have said, but surely the emphasis should be put on the word "might". It is possible (though in my mind not probable) there MIGHT have been a different result.
Had Carlton House not missed the break, had Carlton House not been carried wide and met slight interference, had Carlton House not lost a shoe….. things "might" have been different.
One thing that will never be known is just how much the plate effected the horse. It came off fairly close to the finish, but was it loose for some time before? Looking from the overhead(ish) camera; it is evident in the first half of the straight Carlton House gained on the leader at a faster pace than Pour Moi. My first reaction was the Queen’s horse might not have stayed so well as the French raider. But could it be Carlton House began to feel the loose plate before it came off and slowed?
So things "might" have been different.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
I’m firmly in the camp that Aidan O’Brien has so nearly pulled off a master stroke and remains a trainer that holds all the cards.
He would of known the ins and outs of Pour Moi, for all we know Sir Michael Stoute has run agains the wrong yard stick with Treasure Beach possibly cantering over Seville at home but thats for Aidan to know and the others to find out!
With the Dante, he would of fully known Sevilles actually level of ability this year and may of said to the owners of Pour Moi "if this thing don’t pull clear off Seville by a wide margin then you’ve got the Derby in the bag" of course it won, by this time it was all the rage and it werent untill Pour Moi’s gallop the French taunted and teased us with a fast bit of work showing what we’ve all missed.
Absolute genuis from Aiden.
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Not a good Derby in my opinion. Maybe subsequent races will prove me wrong but at this stage its hard to get excited about any of that lot.
Henry made the wrong decision Frankel would’ve mullered this lot.
One thing that should be abundantly clear by now is that neither Native Khan or Dubawi Gold was "flattered" by their running behind Frankel in the Guineas, and those that held that view may like to cogitate that Frankel was actually the overrated one, by dint of having the race won before the above 2 even featured. Wouldn’t stay 12f on a bus, anyway.
Imo, Treasure Beach clearly improved for the stiffer test (looks a moral for the Leger) while Carlton House would probably be better over 10f – not a vintage Derby, though.- Total Posts 17716
The next time we see Pour Moi race will most probably be at Longchamps in October.
I think he will have the measure of the older horses. He has more natural speed and a better turn of foot than either Workforce or So You Think.
Are you actually serious? SYT lead the 2009 G1 Cox Plate field by 3 lengths from the 7f mark,behind him were Manhattan Rain A 6f Golden slipper 3rd and 7f G1 winner and Black Piranha a dual 7f G1 winner.In the 2010 Cox Plate SYT sat outside More Joyous who is one of the best milers in the world and SYT was under triple wraps!
Are you actually serious? SYT lead the 2009 G1 Cox Plate field by 3 lengths from the 7f mark,behind him were Manhattan Rain A 6f Golden slipper 3rd and 7f G1 winner and Black Piranha a dual 7f G1 winner.In the 2010 Cox Plate SYT sat outside More Joyous who is one of the best milers in the world and SYT was under triple wraps!
I’m deadly serious, and this is from one who has followed So You think’s career.
The Cox Plate, although a good Group 1 race in Australia, is nowhere near the standard, prestige and competitiveness of the Arc. It matters not a jot which horses So You Think defeated in Australia; Europe is a differnt ball game entirely. Don’t get me wrong, I love the horse; he’s all class – but he has yet to be fully tested on British or French soil.That said, I think he should win the Prince Of Wales Stakes ( Group 1 race since 2000) at Royal Ascot without too much difficulty – unless of course, Workforce shows up, which is probably unlikely.
I hold firm in my belief that Pour Moi has the finishing speed to beat both those horses. You see things differently regarding So You Think. That’s fine. Hopefully they’ll meet at some stage and we will see who is right and who is wrong.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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Well you are entitled to your opinion Himself,but dont doubt the quality of Australian racing it is in pretty good shape.You also stated that Pour Moi ‘has more natural speed’ then SYT, and say you have follewed his career closely. If that is the case you will know that SYT has had 3 starts at 7f for 2 wins and a nose 2nd, the 2nd was in a Group 3 and the win was in the Group 2 Memsie stks.And i dont think the quality of Australian sprinters can really be questioned.
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As far as i am aware Australia has had only 1 runner in the Arc and that was Strawberry Road,another Cox Plate winner; for memory he ran 5th or 6th after being set an impossible task and butchered by Starkey.He also ran a close 2nd to Pebbles in the Breeders Cup Turf. That was back in the mid 80’s,after that his form was only fair,but not a bad effort for 1 try from a horse from ‘inferior’ racing.You have to Remember Choiser was one of the first Australian horses to go to England,so up until then you only thought they were inferior
As far as i am aware Australia has had only 1 runner in the Arc and that was Strawberry Road,another Cox Plate winner; for memory he ran 5th or 6th after being set an impossible task and butchered by Starkey.He also ran a close 2nd to Pebbles in the Breeders Cup Turf. That was back in the mid 80’s,after that his form was only fair,but not a bad effort for 1 try from a horse from ‘inferior’ racing.You have to Remember Choiser was one of the first Australian horses to go to England,so up until then you only thought they were inferior
Strawberry Road’s grandsire was quite a good horse in his own right.
I remember attending the 1998 Melbourne Cup and I happened to mention Strawberry Road whilst in the company of some locals, only to be met with blank stares and quizzical looks. 
I didn’t say Australian racing was inferior; your sprinters are top notch, although you have to admit that with the possible exception of Phar Lap and Carbine, the Europeans win hands down when it comes to churning out middle distance turf greats.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
My immediate impression of the 2011 Derby is that it was a much better race than the 2010 renewal.
True,Workforce has subsequently proved himself to be one of his trainer’s better Derby Winners. However he ran appallingly in the King George, giving rise to questions regarding the horse’s constitution and gives the impression that 12 furlongs and upward are his forte. On looks alone he looks nailed on to make up into a National Hunt sire as his appearance at Cheltenham or Aintree would not be out of place. However, his trainer has a wonderful record of improving older horses so he may yet be able to show top class form at 10 furlongs, though I for one would be laying him in a group one over that distance, he ducked So You Think in Ireland to avoid the label of "inconsistent" though his record already warrants it.
The manner of Pour Moi’s victory was incredible as Epsom is not a place where exaggerated waiting tactics usually work over a mile and a half. The trainer himself compared him favourably to Peintre Celebre who was one of the best racehorses of the last 30 years. The unique nature of Epsom provides the ultimate test of horseflesh and has done so for 230 years, to win the Derby a horse has to have some precocity and many excellent horses have shown their best some time after the first Saturday (or Wednesday) in June. A good example of this is the 2006 race where the 3rd home Dylan Thomas subsequently proved himself to be the best horse in the field, yet at the appointed hour he was not ready to show his true class. On Saturday the over-riding impression was that in a very messy race, the best horse had prevailed despite everything. Of course only time will tell if he can add to his trainer’s illustrious list of Arc winners.
Lots of discussion and debate over whether Pour Moi’s performance was hindered or enhanced by tactics employed on Saturday.
Timeform have rated the Derby winner 124p which looks fair enough. They concede that the winner has the potential to be better than the bare result (hence the ‘p’ I guess) and an interesting post in the comments section of David Johnson’s blog from their Head Of Research and Handicapping Simon Rowlands outlines how the ratings <i>might</i> look if race sectionals were factored into the equation and he suggests a rating of 128 for Pour Moi with Carlton House next best on 123.
It’s always going to be tricky to deal with a race that was anything but straightforward and I think they’ve done the right thing here in going on bare form and allocating the p.
I’m not sure it completely squares with their decision to award Frankel an extra allowance for his win in the 2,000 Guineas though. Different race profiles from the winners but surely a ‘p’ would have been in order for Frankel too, given the subjective nature of the interpretation (and I know part of Timeform’s value to customers is their expertise in subjective assessment but I’m not sure that the leap of faith required to award Pour Moi an extra 4/5lbs is any more than the leap you needed to make to put Frankel a futher two lengths clear in the Guineas).
For me the horse to take out of the race was Carlton House who wasn’t as suited by the way the race panned out as the winner was, had the worst of the traffic and also had that lost shoe (who knows if that had been giving him an issue as it became loose – nothing to suggest it did in his action I concede.)
He will be very hard to beat over 10 furlongs for the remainder of the season IMO, particularly if Workforce and See You Think stay at 1m4f.Anyway – click on logo below for David Johnson’s blog (see comments section for Simon Rowlands ratings discussion/comments)
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