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I know there is a 2012 one but lets talk about the Epsom derby in June here.
FRANKEL.As i got a 33/1 ticket on him i hope he runs but got a feeling he won’t.
So my main tips are.
CARLTON HOUSE.25/1
Was 2nd on debut but improve for that run by running riot in a maiden yes only a maiden race but most of SMS top 3yo colts dont do a lot at 2.He be step up in trip as well and you see even more improvement from him.
RECITAL.16/1
After his maiden win Murtagh said he see this horse at Epsom then won a Group 1 in France by 5l a very taking performance by him. though some people doubt he stay extra 2furlongs that race a 1m2 but i think he stay these are my 2 horses for derby.
ADILAPOUR.Is my darkhorse for the race as well something tells me Murtagh will be on this Aga Khan horse at Epsom i feel it in my bones i do.
Hope no one minds me opening this thread now as we all know normally we are talking about jumps season.
A lot of people are talking about him a shame we did not see him as a 2yo.Be intresting to see how he debuts this year.Am sure other people on here know more about him.
I took Recital for 1pt win after his Navan win and have no other monetary interest…yet. I hope Sir Cecil wins it though. I haven’t warmed to Frankel yet but Sir Cecil reckons there a lot of potential in his yard we haven’t seen yet. From that perspective its a good thing that I haven’t got too involved and its a good thing because it means theres plenty more to learn and get excited about in the early season.
I love having an ante post punt on the Derby.
So far I have backed;
Adilapour at big prices on BF. He really impressed me when winning first time out at Gowran Park. I just wonder why they didn’t run him again. I acknowledge John Oxx is very patient with his two year olds.
French Navy – won his first 3 starts in France before running a shocker when beaten by Roderick O’Connor on his last race. I put my bet on before that race! He just wouldn’t settle and I am hoping it was a one off. He’s with Godolphin now.
Notable Guest – was impressed with his one and only run when he came second to a subsequent listed winner at Leopardstown at the end of October. He is a half brother to Refuse To Bend and also Media Puzzle. Owned by the Moyglare Stud, he is in the very capable hands of Dermot Weld. I’m hoping that he has a very, very bright future over middle distances, his debut gives me plenty of encouragement. Got him at 250+ on BF.
Jonathan Pease has a horse called Maxios who is a Monsun half brother to Bago. He has a Derby entry but not sure he will go down that route. If he does then this unbeaten, Group 3 winner will be very interesting. Trainer reckons he is a Group 1 horse. Already backed him for the Arc on BF!
Anyone intending to go to Epsom this June ?
I took Recital for 1pt win after his Navan win and have no other monetary interest…yet. I hope Sir Cecil wins it though. I haven’t warmed to Frankel yet but Sir Cecil reckons there a lot of potential in his yard we haven’t seen yet. From that perspective its a good thing that I haven’t got too involved and its a good thing because it means theres plenty more to learn and get excited about in the early season.
If you havent warmed to Frankel yet you probably never will!
As a big Cecil fan I too am looking forward to seeing some of these hyped unraced 3 year olds. None more so than World Domination and Air Traffic (full brother to Aviate) but also Midsummer Sun (Midday’s half brother). Is a massive ask to go from unraced maiden to Derby winner however so probably best to look at those that have run.
Looking at the big stables and staying with Henry it is interesting that Lord Grimthorpe told Matt Chapman that Picture Editor was his pick of those to follow in 2011. I know dear Teddy doesnt always get it right and certainly PE would have to prove that his last run was an aberration but the stable still think a lot of this horse and are convinced the he was over the top at the backend of the season. I have some nice antepost prices about Frankel but there has to be a major doubt about him running. I think he would have to win the Guineas with his head in his chest going away off a fast pace for them even to consider it.
Looking at Sir Michael, I too was taken by Carlton House last year and think he could develop into a genuine threat. Beautifully bred and looking a late maturing type, this 30th April foal can surely only go one way. I am not so keen on Sea Moon who looked a little slow to me, albeit on bad ground, and I didnt really like the way he carried his head. I would not be surprised to see this one running over longer distances as the season progresses.
I am quite interested in Nathaniel of John Gosden’s who ran two very nice races behind Frankel and Picture Editor and who is held in very high regard by Johnny G. He could have won an easy backend maiden with him but was content to put him away and save him for this year where I can see him coming into his own over middle distances. Again beautifully bred being a half brother to Percussionist, I think you can still get 50’s about this son of Galilleo.
Across the water the one I liked from the outset was Seville. He improved very quickly at the back end of last year and has a touch of class about him. Certain to stay and more than likely to be aimed at this rather than the Guineas I have him as the pick of the Ballydoyle team.
I liked Dubai Prince before he was sent to Dubai but perhaps Mahmood Al Zarooni will have more early season success than Saeed Bin Surror has had in recent seasons.
So if Frankel doesnt make it, my two against the field at this very early stage would be Carlton House and Seville but I like Nathaniel and havent given up entirely on Picture Editor.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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Hope HRAC wins this and gets his rightful knighthood. As has already been posted I think Picture Editor will be his Derby horse. Can’t see Frankel getting the trip.
As a big Cecil fan I too am looking forward to seeing some of these hyped unraced 3 year olds. None more so than World Domination and Air Traffic (full brother to Aviate) but also Midsummer Sun (Midday’s half brother). Is a massive ask to go from unraced maiden to Derby winner however so probably best to look at those that have run.
As I’m new to this forum and I don’t want to step on someone’s toes like you I’m a big Cecil fan
Have you heard if Henry has any nice fillies that could be in the classic shake up in 2011Hi Martin. Welcome to the forum.
Henry’s fillies were extremely backward last year and, as I am sure you know, very few made it to the racetrack. However, there are a few fillies that I have heard about that might be worth looking out for.
All Time
is an unraced full sister to Passage of Time who was reportedly doing very well until a growth spurt near the backend prompted Henry to put her away for the year. Not sure if this family quite gets the mile a half but could be a nice 10f horse.
Light Blow
is an interesting one for you as I see you have Light Shift’s photo next to your name. This one is a full sister to Light Shift out of Lingerie who also produced Shiva. I have no idea why she did not make it to the racecourse but has the breeding to be good.
The same comments apply to
Word Power
who is a daughter of Henry’s listed winner Novellara and a daughter of Oasis Dream.
Of those that have run I could only really think of
Arizona Jewell
who is a half sister to Frankel’s dam Kind and who ran a race full of promise at Yarmouth in October.
A few interesting ones then but, unusually, I think Henry has more talent in the colts division this year.
Hope this is helpful!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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I like value, and although unraced I’ll have a small each-way on Voodoo Prince and a bigger each-way on Cumani’s Elle Runner. The latter is by Hurricane Run and out of Elle Danzig, who has already produced a Group 3 winner in Germany. He’s gonna be a top class horse guys.
I have small antepost amounts on Recital and Carlton House, both bred well and going the right way as far as I can see and a very small amount on Midsummer Sun who is unraced but I like his breeding.
I got seriously stung last year as I didn’t beleive that Workforce would do 12f let alone set a new course record being by Kings Best, being a grandson of Kingmambo but there you go.
I was there as well which made it worse !! Still the 100/1 pacemaker came 2nd so who knows just what that was all about. Maybe some of the expects on here could enlighten me.
This year I will be more cautious.
King’s Best was Guineas-winner and 3rd Fav. in the Irish Derby, where he was pulled up and ended his racing-career.
Perhaps he possessed more stamina than he could show due to that injury.
Look at Allegretta’s progeny in 2 generations: there is a broad band of speed (Tertullian) and stamina (Galileo, Sea the Stars).
Derby entries out today. A couple of notable absentees from Cecil yard – Picture Editor, Midsummer Sun and Specific Gravity. World Domination and Frankel ARE there.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I like looking to see what John Oxx has entered each year and aside from Adiapour he has a couple of interesting looking unraced types :
Zanughan : HH Aga Khan. Out of Zanara, winner of Clonmel Maiden. Related to some 80-95 flat animals. By Azamour; John Oxx trained multiple group winner (3rd Guineas, won Irish Guineas, St James Palace Stakes, King George winner as 4yo). Miler as 3yo, middle distance performer as a 4yo. Half brother to 98 handicap winner.
Wakhan : Not sold (37k) as a yearling. Half brother to two 50ish horses and one nobody. Out of unraced Wrapitraise. By Dalakhani; multiple Gr1 winner over 7-12f at 2-3; sired 2yo winners, some smart, but progeny progress well. Winner of French and Irish Derby plus Arc as a 3yo.
What puts me off the two is that looking at the results over the last 5 years, I can only find Lucarno and Hala Bek (both 4th) who were unraced as 2yo’s and managed to finish within a few lengths of the winner.
Can anyone shed any light on the last derby winner who was unraced as a 2yo? Any opinion on whether it’s asking too much for an unraced 3yo to go on and win at Epsom?
Can anyone shed any light on the last derby winner who was unraced as a 2yo? Any opinion on whether it’s asking too much for an unraced 3yo to go on and win at Epsom?
Commander in Chief 1993. (Henry Cecil)
My opinion. No, it’s not asking too much for an unraced
2yo
to go on and win at Epsom. (if you meant 2yo not 3yo)
Morston (Arthur Budgett) in 1973 had his first run (in a maiden) only a few weeks before going on to win the Derby.
Having a really good trainer helps.
I got seriously stung last year as I didn’t beleive that Workforce would do 12f let alone set a new course record being by Kings Best, being a grandson of Kingmambo but there you go.
I was there as well which made it worse !! Still the 100/1 pacemaker came 2nd so who knows just what that was all about. Maybe some of the expects on here could enlighten me.
This year I will be more cautious.
Kingmambo was only ever asked to race at a maximum of 8 furlongs, and being excellent at that distanceand being by Mr Prospector out of Miesque, it seems a quite reasonable decision. But at stud he has been a much greater influence for stamina than might have been expected. For those of you interested in such things, have a look at the chef-de-race.com website. They have recently selected Kingmambo as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race, meaning he is an influence for stamina. They say: “Clearly, the failure to recognize Kingmambo as a prepotent source of great stamina leads to a serious misinterpretation of his descendants’ aptitudinal type. “
As an aside, their take on breeding leads to the conclusion that Frankel will probably stay 12f. From a traditional breeding point of view it is only Frankel’s dam Kind, a sprinter, in his background who gives doubts about his stamina. But then again, there are statistics, there are averages, but it all comes down to the individual horse. When you have someone like Henry Cecil saying there are doubts about Frankel’s stamina, then we have to listen. But some people said Nijinsky had too much speed to be able to stay!
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