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Third damsire Sheshoon which I don’t know much about but was second damsire of Kahyasi.
I, too, am enjoying your posts, pedigreeman.
Sheshoon won G1s over 12f and 20f (GP de Saint Cloud, GP von Baden, Ascot Gold) in 1960, and was also 2nd in the Cadran, so some middle-distance speed but also a stayer…like Yeats, I would think.Pedigreeman, I think your observations on the significance of NDSW in sirelines and Nasrullah in damlines (and the lack of significance vice versa) may have more to do with market forces than whether those genes come through the sire or dam.
With the massive commercial force that Sangster/Coolmore/Magnier have represented since the 70s and their almost-ideological propagation of various ND lines up to the present reliance on SW & Sons (and Danehill, but less so for the Derby), there have simply been far higher numbers of quality mares being sent to NDSW stallions than Nasrullah stallions. And through the 1990s, I think most breeders tended to avoid ND duplications and thus sent non-ND mares to these ND stallions. Whereas they would often send their ND mares to non-ND stallions, and there just aren’t as many Nasrullah-line stallions as Mr Prospectors, and just as many as Royal Chargers, so…the pool of Derby potentials just had more NDSWs-on-Nasrullahs than Nasrullahs-on-NDSWs. I know it is not as strong to repond to an empiric argument with one case, but a horse like Conduit (I know, not a Derby winner, but still) suggests that the sire/dam set-up is fine, it’s just that there weren’t as many horses out there bred on the Conduit-pattern as on the High Chaparral-pattern.
Even today, looking for NDSWs & Nasrullahs in Europe’s top 10 stallions, Montjeu and Galileo have massive books compared to Dalakhani. I really think it might just be the market forces behind those stallion lines.
If you are going to stick to your trends, rather than picking and choosing them – then surely you will have Midas Touch ahead of St Nicholas Abbey now…how many O’Brien Derby winners or horses that have run well at Epsom have ran well in the Guineas? Similar to his Dante record I would say…
Sticking blindly to such patterns is of course ridiculous – there will be some trends but ruling a horse out before you have seen him is just bizarre particularly when he was well touted last year. O’Brien did run future Group 1 winners Septimus and Frozen Fire in the race.
Lol Cape Blanco. You guys fall for the hype hook, line and sinker. Name me one O’Brien Dante horse that’s run well in the Derby. He’s got an entry for the Derrinstown, O’Brien’s favourite Derby trial, on Sunday, and he’s skipping it. He’s got no chance. St. Nick will win – only Workforce and Chabal are in with a hope.
Yes, that’s fair enough, but what did they do at Epsom? Sod bleeding all. Anyway he didn’t have his maiden on a Group 1 track and was put in his place twice by Jan Vermeer.
Vincent O’Brien was wont to use the Irish Two Thousand guineas as a warm up or prep race for the Derby.Is it still considered suitable for that task?Aidan referred to it today but left it up in the air.
Aidan O Brien Maiden Winners at non Group 1 Tracks
HighChaparral
Giants Causeway
Henrythenavigator
Soldieroffortune
FameandGlory
Dylan Thomas
Hawk Wing
JohannesburgCan’t quite follow the Stat…
None of them won the Derby, Wallace. It is a Derby stat/trend.
edit: However, Zarkava has often said that O’Brien is a trendsbuster . . .
Further edit: Whoops! Didn’t notice High Chaparral in that list.
You see what I mean? O’Brien is a trendsbuster.
Isn’t that Stat a little misleading since AOB has had 2 Derby Winners
Had 1-2 in 2002 both on Non Group 1 Track as Maidens
Yeah, High Chaparral is the only exception. And Punchestown is a Grade 1 track anyway.
Its a 50/50 stat i guess.
Could well be interesting to follow but the amount of Stonking Horse’s that have won and ran their maiden and non Group 1 is many. Me thinks take some of it with a pinch of salt.
Obviously well backed Maiden Winners at the Curragh/Leop are very interesting.
Interesting stat to follow?
Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown, Doncaster, Goodwood, Curragh, Leopardstown, Punchestown, Newmarket, Sandown, Newmarket, Goodwood, Newbury, Curragh and Curragh the destinations of the racecourse debuts of the past 15 Derby winners. That’s 14/15 that are Group 1 racetracks.
To be honest I’m rather baffled by other horses being thrown up. St. Nicholas Abbey, despite me being Doubting Thomas at first, is the easy, easy winner of the Derby. Will be a procession. He didn’t have enough speed over a mile and there wasn’t a proper gallop. Had there been a proper gallop he’d have been closer.
7/2 is a gift.
Punchestown…now a Group 1 track (as opposed to a Grade 1 track for NH horses) to fit the arguement? Seriously this place is going so far off track with trends on bloody everything without looking at the individual horse itself.
Until Zarkava came up with this on the 2yo Summary thread last year, I didn’t even know that they had Flat racing at Punchestown!
Punchestown…now a Group 1 track (as opposed to a Grade 1 track for NH horses) to fit the arguement? Seriously this place is going so far off track with trends on bloody everything without looking at the individual horse itself.
The best maidens are run at the best tracks. I didn’t even realise there was a Group 1 at Punchestown these days.
To be fair, I recall this Group 1 track debut trend being mentioned in the literature in the 1980s, so it is fairly longstanding.
However, with the sheer number of 2yos at Ballydoyle, and the limited number of G1 courses in Ireland, it may be necessary to not bother applying it there, and just apply it to British trained horses.
OK fine, we’ll ignore that trend for Midas Touch.
He still got smashed by Jan Vermeer twice.
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