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I’m going for Coordinated Cut. Was reasonably impressed with his effort first time out this year and it looks very much like he will be one of the few horses who will appreciate the trip at epsom on decent ground. He was reasonably well hyped last year by peter chapple hyam and I respect what he tends to say about youngsters, he’s had a few good ones in his time. Not sure what the plan for him is at the moment in terms of trials but will be interested to see how he gets on.
Lads go shortest aswell at a crazy 12/1 when others go 25/1.
11AM come Friday i may be having a wee antepost slip
Jan Vermeer…Pictures up
Lol Cape Blanco. You guys fall for the hype hook, line and sinker. Name me one O’Brien Dante horse that’s run well in the Derby. He’s got an entry for the Derrinstown, O’Brien’s favourite Derby trial, on Sunday, and he’s skipping it. He’s got no chance. St. Nick will win – only Workforce and Chabal are in with a hope.
Nicely spotted Pedigree Man, I asked a similar question about 4 years ago as to why at that point had no winner of the Derby,Oaks, or Coronation Cup in the previous 10 years got Northern Dancer duplications in their last 4 generations.
I got no answers and that year, 2007, Authorised won! However to my way of thinking Authorised was a 12f plus bred animal and the other winners were the usual 10-12f bred animals. The duplication maybe increases speed in the mix.Also in the last 10 years 2009, going backwards Authorised is still the only one to win the Derby, and still none the Coronation Cup.
Another point is that no animal with Mr P inbreeding in the last 4 generations has won any of the 12f G1 races that colts and horses can enter in England or Ireland either.
On this basis, I would not expect Burj Nahar, Chabal or Coordinated Cut to win this year.
Had I been around 4 years ago I might have said you only needed to go back another year to find Lammtarra (1995) ND Nijinsky sire line and Northern Dancer itself as sire of the 3rd dam. That kind of created a not too distant precedent for Authorized?
I’d not want to rule out Coordinated Cut (CCu) on the structure of it’s pedigree. Authorized was only 3 years ago. CCu’s structure is not dissimilar. Beyond the obvious that they are both NDSW-Montjeu, the dam’s sire is Nasrullah-Blushing Groom line and ok it’s Arazi not Rainbow Quest but it is the same line. Dancing Brave as the second damsire is ok with me. Of the 5 incidences of Northern Dancer on the dam’s side in 20 years we have Nijinsky1, ND itself2 and Lyphard2 (Kris Kin, Authorised). Dancing Brave is a Lyphard. So they are quite closely related and put together along similar lines.
I’m not sure of Arazi’s record as a broodmare sire. Not too good? But the Nasrullah line is the most common incidence of damsire over the last 20 years with 8 hits. And Montjeu is so stoutly bred in the Sadlers Wells/Top Ville cross that I don’t mind seeing a bit of zip and brilliance on the dam’s side. That’s where it’s gears and that all important ability to quicken might come from.
I see CCu is entered only for the Dante. I don’t think I’ve seen it run. Quirkiness?, temperament?, gears? I think I’d want to see a balance of Montjeu-x-Arazi. Too much Arazi, too much speed and fizziness, and I’d think it unlikely to stay. But I wouldn’t say it’s pedigree looks unlike a Derby winner. It’s quite like Kris Kin and even more like Authorized.
Zarkava is he missing it though for the Dante?
If that is so they are depending on Midas Touch
He certainly doesn’t look to be a "Star"
I throw another "Stat your way"
Winners of the Futurity at 2
New Approach
Arazan
Teofilo
Giants Causeway
Oratorio
Hawk Wing
Horatio Nelsonand even St Jovite.
He certainly won’t be thought of a Dark Horse but maybe a forgotten Horse. Their is no hype about Cape Blanco as i haven’t heard any from AOB. St Nicholas Abbey/Steinbeck is the "Hype" as far as i can see.
Another Point…when Galileo went private in 2007/08 his produce is just making it to the track. He would have been attracting the real top Mare’s then. As i see they believe he is coming with his best stock next year (the 40 odd 2yr olds by him at ballydoyle realitive to the tiny amount of Montjeu) but maybe he has a few good un lying around.
Obviously who ever runs in the Derrinstown is the "BIG DARK HOPE" against the established St Nick but surely it isn’t Midas Touch. Surely Not
Coordinated Cut is simply not good enough based on his last run.
I managed to get some more of the 4/1 about St. Nick this morning and that’s all disappeared now.
At least 4 of the first 12 on the Derby list won’t be running IMO – Mikhail Glinka, Elusive Pimpernel, Jan Vermeer and Fencing Master. Al Zir could easily miss the race, they might not bother with Azmeel, Midas Touch would just be a pacemaker, etc.
Yes, the recent winners of the Futurity have been very good, but look at O’Brien’s Dante runners.
I believe Ballydoyle isn’t even bothering with their other 3yo middle-distance runners. I think they’ll have a maximum of 3 runners – 1 pacemaker, 1 also-ran and St. Nick. When Galileo won they had only 1 other runner and when Yeats would’ve won they had only 1 other runner. They might not even bother with an also-ran and send anything else to the GP de Paris.
St. Nick is in a different league and I maintain that only Chabal and Workforce can possibly contend. That’s if Workforce even makes it to the track in time. Workforce might not even be good enough – King’s Best isn’t exactly a wonderful sire. Proclamation, Creachadoir, Best Name – they all won very weak Group 1s. Proclamation didn’t even win the Sussex, that was completely down to Kinane’s ride.
Zarkava
Mr Morris is a very very very good. He is usually never wrong so take a look at this
That’s if Workforce even makes it to the track in time. Workforce might not even be good enough – King’s Best isn’t exactly a wonderful sire.
Workforce
is far more like his Grandsire Sadlers Wells,he should be running in next weeks Dante at York all being well! after he"s shown a telling turn of foot over the Knavesmire its off to Epsom! Xmas will come early this year but it wont be St Nicholas bringing the presents,it will be his
Workforce
!
Oh on pedigree I have no doubt that he might not get 12f. And what’s that old adage…if you’re guaranteed to get the trip on pedigree, you’re too slow. St. Nick might have 12f written all over him but at least he’s proved he ain’t too slow.
Ok – Cape Blanco
Obviously NDSWgalileo is a tick box.
The damsire is Presidium (awd 8.3). It’s a Nasrullah line but in being the Bold Ruler (Secretariat) branch it would open up a line from Nasrullah that, as far as I’m aware, hasn’t yet featured anywhere in a Derby winner’s pedigree.
The second damsire, Artaius (awd 11.3) is a Persimmon line. A non Phalaris-Nearco. Which is ok on the dam’s side. Although a Persimmon line hasn’t turned up since Dr Devious 1992.
The third damsire is Petingo – a Phalaris line. Motivator had a Phalaris line third damsire although a more commonly seen member of the Derby roster than Petingo. And we’ve not seen a Persimmon line together with a Phalaris line in the backend of a pedigree since Quest For Fame 1990.
On balance I’d say the dam doesn’t look promising. Too many hitherto unseen damsires. So, on breeding, I’d say Cape Blanco looks less like a Derby horse than Coordinated Cut and might lack a bit of class.
Yes, Mr Morris is to be respected. I’d broadly concur with him on Chabal – 1m2f looks likely to be it’s optimum trip.
I’m not too worried about Zafonic being the damsire. Zafonic is a Gone West and Gone West was the damsire of Motivator. Zafonic being Gone West x The Minstrel adds a bit of extra stamina.
Second damsire Linamix (Northern Dancer Lyphard line) doesn’t concern me either – so long as I’m going to find stout stamina soon.
I find Halo. A Hail to Reason (same sire as Roberto) and sire of Kentucky Derby winners Sunny’s Halo and Sunday Silence. So more 1m2f influence than middle distance + stamina.
So, broadly speaking, we have influences for 1m4f, mile, 1m2f, 1m2f. Which looks like a 1m2f horse.
Going further back it goes sprinter/Nasrullah itself/ then two lines of old fashioned stamina. There’s some hope from those distant lines but it’s a long way back.
These are horribly interesting posts, pedigreeman. Where on earth have you popped up from!?! A very welcome addition to the forum.
Chink of Light
Dr Fong doesn’t yet appear in the Derby roster but it’s by Kris S, Kris Kin’s sire, a Roberto line as was Benny The Dip (Silver Hawk).
Crossing to Shirley Heights (damsire of High Chaparral) looks ok – provides a balance of stamina.
Second damsire Persian Ruler, the Bold Ruler line of Nasrullah. Third damsire Sheshoon which I don’t know much about but was second damsire of Kahyasi. And fourth damsire Crepello is a Blandford line, an old fashioned non Phalaris-Nearco line and a stamina influence and which has been present in 6 of the last 10 winners.
It’s form is pants though being beaten in very moderate 1m4f hcaps. Might prove to be a merely useful stayer despite the sire’s speed.
Morana has an impressive pedigree.
By Alhaarth, a Northern Dancer yet to sire a Derby winner, the damsire is Blushing Groom itself and the second damsire is Nijinsky itself. Two highly influential Derby bloodlines.
Further back the third damsire is Charlottesville (Persimmon line) who was also Shahrastani’s third damsire, Shahrastani being by Nijinsky.
So no shortage of class or stamina.
It’s RPT 5th reads ok. The Craven 5th perhaps less so on the face of it but this is no miler and an interesting one to step up to 1m4f in the Chester Vase.
Rocket Man
The Montjeu/Gone West cross is that of Motivator.
But the rest of the dam’s profile can’t be said to match up to that of Motivators. The second damsire is Deputy Minister a Northern Dancer not present on the Derby roster and we know Northern Dancer on the female line is a rarity. Then Illustrious who appears to be a speedster.
On balance I think Rocket Man falls slightly short on both stamina and class. As you’re likely to encounter a sedate pace in a 7 runner trial it could, though, win a Chester Vase.
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