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As someone who was backing Cape Blanco since september, I am even more gutted about the result. If anyone else had that horse it would have gone Epsom. Aidan, I hope you are feeling down tonight, you should be Sir!
Congrats to Sir Michael Stoute, a true legend in the game, and to the champion jockey, just wish for racings sake the boy could show some emotion after victory, some personality, please Ryan, for Racing for Change’s sake!
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Aidan, I hope you are feeling down tonight, you should be Sir!
You twisted little git, what an awful thing to come out with.
"Mr.Wilson" wrote:
Aidan, I hope you are feeling down tonight, you should be Sir!
You twisted little git, what an awful thing to come out with.
Pot, kettle, black all come to mind
If we get soft ground in Paris, I think Workforce could eclipse what Sakhee did, that was seriously impressive, SMS hasn’t had a better chance to win an Arc ever, might as well give the Irish Derby to him now.
Should be good to see Cape Blanco tomorrow, he clearly in the mind of O’Brien can’t stay 12f but he would have had enough class to go with Workforce imo, but he wouldn’t have won today as Workforce is a serious 12f specialist horse, best since Galileo and High Chaparral, would love to see him with a bit more cut in the ground.
Dont believe Cape Blacno would have finsihed around the mark where Jan Vermeer and Coordinated Cut et al, he is by far a better horse than that I would assume, Dante form was great on paper too thats why I bet on Cape Blanco, I had no bet in the Derby after that but I should of stuck with the Dante formline,
I cant see there being a rematch between the two as CB will go the 10f route maybe even a few 8f G1’s where as I would imagine Workforce will go for all the big 12f races.
Given what some on here said, most notably that miserbale git Stilvi, that was rather humourous.
AOB had one Derby horse, called St Nicholas Abbey. People couldn’t wait to inject some sting into those, like me, who rated him clear on official figures and form. HYPE, they said.
Only they well and truly fell for the real mug hype on Jan Vermeer, brilliant in beating handicappers on debut. "A star". Most laughed.
Workforce may well have beaten St Nic, maybe not, we’ll never know, but Workforce was and is brilliant.
But once you admitted St Nic was the number one and rightly so, the AOB runners paled into what they really were, but then the hype kicked in, and "those" people got stung.
Humourous, like I said.
Trying to just say the best bred horse will win doesnt work. Most horses however IMO have a surface and a distance and to try to pick one for a distance and the surface, involves knowing the surface and picking horses who’s breeding suggests they should act on that surface.
If it is gd-fm I think Al Zir should go well enough on the surface if the pace is fast. If the ground is gd-fm however there is always the chance that they dont run the speedier sorts out of the race and that will bring azmeel into the Equation. Azmeel went best in the dee stakes in the last few furlongs where the ground was drying out and I suspect he could be the type to go well in a fast surface derby. Bullet Train and Workforce will also like it faster underfoot. Workforce however had everything up his street in the dante and was beaten, so how much he will come on for the experience is the question, but 6-1 seems plenty short enough on him IMO.
The rest I would expect will want good ground to get their toe in, to show their best, but unless they have watered overnight or rain has come, I would expect that AL ZIR, AZMEEL, BULLET TRAIN and WORKFORCE look to hold the advantage on the breeding side, and if the ground is still gd-fm, then I think it will take a classy performance from any of the remainder to beat all 4 of them.
PS. Quite like Dandy Nicholls Crimea in the Vodafone Dash also for a wee e/w shot at 40-1 if the ground is still fast.
1ST WORKFORCE –
Towards rear
, headway and 6th straight, ridden and good headway to chase clear leader over 3f out, closing 2f out, led over 1f out, soon clear and in command, stayed on well (op 13-2 tchd 7-1 and 8-1 in a place)
6TH AL ZIR – Slowly into stride, took keen hold and soon well in touch, 5th straight, soon driven and no progress, disputing modest 3rd from 3f out until no extra final furlong
10TH AZMEEL – Took keen hold, led for 1f, chased leaders after, 4th and ridden straight, soon struggling and beaten, no chance final 2f, well behind and eased inside final furlong, tailed off (op 12-1)
12TH BULLET TRAIN – Chased leaders, went 2nd 9f out, 2nd straight, soon ridden and struggling, weakened entering final 3f and well behind final 2f, eased inside final furlong, tailed off (op 7-1)
IMO in a race on gd-fm, in a time 4 secs fast Workforce was the only horse on his best conditions to be given a really good ride, and proved to be a class above. Thats not to say that he didnt deserve to win because quite clearly he did. IMO of the horses suited to a faster pace, Al Zir probably just got home from where he was ridden but just lacked the class in the last few furlongs. Azmeel was IMO a speed horse who should have come from the back to have any chance and has thrown away any chance by being at the front in such a race (but probably wouldnt have got home in any case). Bullet Train simply doesnt seem to have run any sort of race.
IMO Workforce is clearly a very good horse on these conditions regardless of whether everything fell perfect or not, and I definitely like the horse, but I am not going to get carried away. With any cut underfoot I think many of the cut horses could beat him. I would be looking at the irish derby with him in the hope that the ground is fast, and then perhaps the King George.
IMO what we have seen today is a horse who has had everything drop perfect (trip ground ride etc) destroying a field where most of the opposition didnt have things perfect, so the victory was all the more impressive to watch but not one to be followed too blindly next time, because I think he’s a solid group1 horse who has just had it easy tpoday. I would want him to have the same conditions next time up.
theres a big difference in the english and irish derby, ground being one of them, cant see anything beating one of aob’s in that race.
Thanks, Gerald. Kind of you to say so. I did him after the Dante at 14s through my own employer
hush up all of you or I’ll be fired! It was such an open race and 6/1 just wasn’t value for me.He quickened sensationally well. I was watching the race thinking it wouldn’t be possible for him to beat Jan Vermeer given he was in front of the winner (and is also a horse who quickens), but my goodness, I wasn’t expecting anything like that.
Jan Vermeer patently stays. I don’t care who the dam is, Montjeu injects so much stamina into his foals. I’d be shocked if he ever produces a horse who doesn’t get at least 11f.
I’d be very, very wary of Cape Blanco tomorrow. O’Brien’s record in the French Derby is utterly dire. 1 placed from 17 runners. The last Irish-trained winner was in the 80s I think.
I also don’t agree for one second that they messed up by sending him to France. Although Galileo has produced a lot of stayers (1-2-3 in the Leger for example), he’s not a stallion who produces staying types on a regular basis. He needs to be bred with a staying dam to get a proper middle-distance type. He gets much speedier types that Montjeu for example (Rip Van Winkle, Nightime, Lush Lashes, etc) and stamina isn’t guaranteed when you send a mare to him.
Workforce is obviously no value at all at 4/1 for the Arc and I’m rather annoyed I didn’t back him on Betfair before. Matched at 47s.
I’d expect to see him go down the Eclipse route next, although I wouldn’t want to get involved at silly prices. After all, the pacemaker finished 2nd.
That’s a strange statement to make Delboy, surely the best horse on the day will win, no matter who trains it?!
yes. and imo it will be one of aob’s. all this talk that workforce is no value in the arc is utter rubbish, after workforces poor run in the dante, and beating a good field like that, including jan vermeer, which johnny murtagh had the pick of, which has impressed up until, winning a group 1 as a 2yo which not many horses do, you’d expect it to be given that price!!!
Fair enough. But by your reeasoning if Workforce turns up an the ground is decent he’ll probably win, right? Or am I misunderstanding you?
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It’s clear from the time of the race that Seamie Heffernan judged his ride to perfection on At First Sight. He set an even tempo from start to finish – not too slow, not too fast. It was a wonderful piece of riding.
That isn’t what the clock says, Bosranic.
Workforce ran the first 9 furlongs in a fraction over 13 seconds per furlong, yet was able to accelerate to such tune that he ran the last 3f in just 33.4 secs (Ave. 11.13 s.p.f), which is quite fast for any horse, let alone one following a true pace over 12f.ps to others. The 7/1 Workforce for the Arc is long gone, and he’s a best priced 4/1 at the moment. Fame And Glory – my butt!
no im not saying that, im just saying hes entitle to be favourite for the arc after what he did today!
That’s if Workforce even makes it to the track in time. Workforce might not even be good enough – King’s Best isn’t exactly a wonderful sire.
Workforce
is far more like his Grandsire Sadlers Wells,he should be running in next weeks Dante at York all being well! after he"s shown a telling turn of foot over the Knavesmire its off to Epsom! Xmas will come early this year but it wont be St Nicholas bringing the presents,it will be his
Workforce
!
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Been too busy to post lately but had to pop in and bring this Dante thread up
Fist wrote:
SMS being SMS you can expect massive improvement and you can bet your life come Derby Day this horse will be the one St Nicholas Abbey has to fear most and not Cape Blanco.TAPK wrote: There are times when you are the Man!
Gord me old mate….Despite the fact you are a terrible judge when it comes to knowing what type of ground horses will and won’t go on you deserve a massive round of applause.
The man put forward Workforce and backed him according well before I and most of you even knew he existed. Awesome spotting TAPK!!!!!!
Hope you made plenty old son and congrats on having the goolies not to lay it off.
Be intresting to see how Cape Blanco runs in the Prix Du Jockey Club but I would rather be laying him than backing him.
As far as Workforce’s partitipaion in the St Leger is concerned…….that just isn’t going to happen…..With Fame and Glory probably he best 4 year old around SMS will be thinking Arc.
What totally amazes me is Timeform rating his win higher than Sea The Stars. The best since Generous they are saying..
The time may have been very fast …a course record I think? but many course records are held by handicappers and by the end of the season I doubt if this horse will prove anywhere near as good as Sea the Stars was.
Workforce won well but that looked more down to the others running like boats than it did a Nijinsky/Shergar
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no im not saying that, im just saying hes entitle to be favourite for the arc after what he did today!
I would have to agree..bookies would have to be mad to offer any more but come Arc day I sincerly doubt if Fame and Glory will be the one he has to beat and the book has a half empty look about it at the moment.
I expect the likes of Sariska to improve past F and G. She has really filled out over the last 12 months and 4yo fillies who grow or overgrow if you like tend to improve an awful lot between July and October.
Looking back on last season she put up an amazing performance in the Irish Oaks but was never quite the same after that……..in hindsight that isn’t that surprising considering her make up.
She’s bound to be much stronger this year and with natural improvement I think she’s going to be ahuge danger to all in the Arc and could prove to be better value at 16/1 than Workforce is at 4/1
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