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Getting a bit confused. I’ve now bet a total of £9.81 @ average 17.12 Cape Blanco, and laid £30.85 @ 8.83
The horse is now available to back at 6.4, or lay at 50.
Re the comparison between MVOB & APOB:
In MVOB’s day, the Derby was the Blue Riband and the stable HAD to know beforehand which of theirs was the most likely winner because the stud value of a Derby winner outweighed everything else that happended during the season.
Nowadays Ballydoyle’s horses are being trained with one eye on their potential autumn targets such as Champion Stakes, Arc, Breeders Cup etc because a couple of Group 1s at varying distances is worth as much in stud value, if not more, than a Derby win.
Therefore APOB often doesn’t know which of his is the best because they haven’t been thoroughly tested at this stage of the season, unlike in MVOB’s day.
That’s my 2 cents anyway!
Ginger
Far from being worried about whether he’ll stay the Derby distance, his biggest problem might be that fast ground won’t make it a sufficient test.
SNA’s best chance may come in the St Leger.
If I were you, I’d stick to guessing prices in future.
Thanks Reet,
Seldom laugh out loud when I read a post.Did reding you believe a horse who has pulled in the early stages at a mile’s, "best chance may come in the St Leger".
Brilliant.
Value Is EverythingDunno what was happening with Cape Blanco getting backed but it looks like he is a certain non runner, out to 42.
Re the comparison between MVOB & APOB:
In MVOB’s day, the Derby was the Blue Riband and the stable HAD to know beforehand which of theirs was the most likely winner because the stud value of a Derby winner outweighed everything else that happended during the season.
Nowadays Ballydoyle’s horses are being trained with one eye on their potential autumn targets such as Champion Stakes, Arc, Breeders Cup etc because a couple of Group 1s at varying distances is worth as much in stud value, if not more, than a Derby win.
Therefore APOB often doesn’t know which of his is the best because they haven’t been thoroughly tested at this stage of the season, unlike in MVOB’s day.
Totally agree the Derby isn’t what it used to be. There are much bigger fish to fry (Dubai to add to yours, etc) and the camber can ruin a horse.
As for anyone backing Cape Blanco they must off their trolley. AOB clearly stated it was going to France on C4 Racing Sat am.
‘Lay’ if you can……………
Cape Blanco runs in france, JM rides him
rides Jan on saturday
colm on midas
it’s official
Whilst you lot were safely tucked up in your beds asleep last night, the neighbourhood kitty was jousting with betfair bots.
I wanted the satisfaction of seeing an all-green race again, so I’ve just bet £1.99 @ 170 Cape Blanco, to make it so.
Also laid Bright Horizon £2 @ 710 overnight, and just bet £2 @ 800, so I’m even greener. The Cape Blanco escapade seems to have benefited me by the sum of £24.86
£43.36[/color:dcfzhesc] Jan Vermeer
£95.86[/color:dcfzhesc] Workforce
£96.13[/color:dcfzhesc] Bullet Train
£46.86[/color:dcfzhesc] Midas Touch
£54.86[/color:dcfzhesc] Rewilding
£97.86[/color:dcfzhesc] Azmeel
£109.68[/color:dcfzhesc] Cape Blanco
£59.86[/color:dcfzhesc] Coordinated Cut
£59.80[/color:dcfzhesc] Al Zir
£37.86[/color:dcfzhesc] Ted Spread
£89.86[/color:dcfzhesc] Hot Prospect
£59.86[/color:dcfzhesc] Buzzword
£1,585.56[/color:dcfzhesc] Bright Horizon
£409.86[/color:dcfzhesc] At First Sighthttp://s3.amazonaws.com/readers/2008/09/28/grin1_1.jpg
The cat that got the white gravy.
Gerald that is a impressive Green Screen.
Who do you fancy personally to win the race?
Oh Wallace, why spoil it by dragging me back into the quagmire?
Haven’t actually seen Rewilding or Jan Vermeer run, but that applies to most horses that I bet anyway.
The impressive one was the Lingfield Trial winner, wasn’t it? Bullet Train.
I read either here or on Betfair that Medaglio D’Oro won’t sire a Derby winner. Don’t see why not, it is the Sadler’s Wells line, after all. I’m still mindful of him being the apple of Suroor’s eye last year, so I’d make Al Zir the choice of the outsiders.
Haven’t done a 5 day look at the trends etc.
edit: I ought to mention my original Guineas/Derby horse, Azmeel. Gosden said last year that it was a Royal Lodge rather than Champagne Stakes type, so I’m expecting further improvement, stepped up to 12f. The thing is, I’ve laid so much of this one back, that from a financial point of view he is no longer of personal financial interest.
Green Screens always look nice don’t they.
I hope Jan Vermeer coasts to Derby Success….
A impressive winner really is the main thing i want however
http://i969.photobucket.com/albums/ae172/Hino1989/JanVJPG.jpg
This is a head of a champion imo Jan Vermeer
Analysis:
JAN VERMEER
Shot to market prominence after seasonal debut romp in the Gallinule. Won the Criterium De Saint-Cloud as Juvenile impressively by 4L from a decent field. Given a soft lead that day and Gallinule was run at a fairly sedate pace. Will encounter a much different test at Epsom, but attitude solid and a good athlete for such a well built horse. Strong traveller and surprised if he doesn’t stay – Montjeu is a good source of stamina and dam won over middle distance. Sole Group 1 winner in the field.
BULLET TRAIN
Handsome, rapidly improving individual. Has shown a good attitude in his three career starts. Mugged late on at Newbury before Lingfield Trial success. Made all that day, although restrained first two starts. Sole representative of Sadler’s Wells in this years field, who is responsible for seven win / placed colts in the previous ten runnings of race. Dam related to Great Voltigeur winner, Powerscourt. Trip and course no cause for concern and does possess a good turn of foot.
MIDAS TOUCH
Winner of the Derrinstown, which has produced four winners of the race in the last ten years, with three further placed efforts. Took awhile to master his rivals that day, despite the strong pace (fastest time in 20 years). The sort to handle Epsom and does respond well to pressure. Gives every indication he could eventually be more of a St Leger colt. By Galileo, out of a Darshaan mare – like the stables 2001 winner Milan – who was by Sadler’s Wells, the sire of Galileo. Twice beaten by Jan Vermeer.
WORKFORCE
Won his sole start as a juvenile in taking fashion and the form has worked out well. Hard to gauge how good he is after bit broke in the Dante when 3L behind Cape Blanco. Hasn’t convinced that Epsom will suit and has to belie inexperience. Dam related to 2003 St Leger winner Brian Boru, and sire, King’s Best, produced recent Japanese Derby winner, Eishin Flash. Connections have stated that ‘he could do with a bit of juice in the ground’. Could be more of an Irish Derby type.
REWILDING
Beautifully bred colt who forced connections to supplement him for the race after smooth success at Goodwood. Looks an uncomplicated sort who travels and quickens. Sure to appreciate extra two furlongs and stronger pace at Epsom. Well related to many top performers over the distance, including Dar Re Mi (three times Group 1 winner) and River Dancer. Previous trainer considered him a Derby colt and connections remain bullish about his chances.
AL ZIR
Big, good looking colt who showed plenty of promise when winning first two starts, including 4L defeat of Awesome Act. Ruined chances at Newmarket with poor start. Gives the impression of a likely stayer, but pedigree gives cause for concern. Has the assistance of Kieren Fallon in the saddle, who has won the race three times. Epsom may not be the ideal course to showcase his talents, but has more natural ability than most.
Godolphin’s other representative, the supplemented
Buzzword
, has stamina to prove, but the dam side of his pedigree gives him every chance and interesting that connections have supplemented him for the race after staying on fourth in France.
Chester winners,
Ted Spread
and
Azmeel
, are as tough as they come and will win more races, but both must improve to figure at the finish. The pair are certain to stay.
Coordinated Cut
made a successful return in a valuable race at Newmarket, but was well held in the Dante. Tactics will be different at Epsom, but needs to improve.
Hot Prospect
, son of 2005 hero Motivator, has done nothing wrong thus far. He may fall short at this level, but enough ability to win a Group race.
At First Sight
will ensure an even pace for the Ballydoyle team.
Conclusion: Tomorrow…
his trainer not noted for throwing a handful of darts at the board and hoping one sticks
Ironic isn’t it, that the former maestro of Ballydoyle Vincent O Brien said something like ‘If you think you’ve got four derby possibles you’ve got none at all’, but the current master of the universe seems to think different? Times change I suppose.
Indicating that if a stable had 4 horses of seemingly equal merit, it was highly unlikely any of them would be outstanding enough to win a Derby.
Certainly don’t recall him having more than a couple of runners each year, and as Lester rode most of his winners, it seems MVOB invariably knew the best of them.When considering numbers it is probably worth taking on board that Aidan trains 3-4 times the number of horses that Vincent did.
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