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None of your shortlist match any of my shortlist!
The Derby winner must be being supplemented!
W & IC – why are you both so sure Behtarini is more of a leger type ? I don’t see a problem with 12F myself. It’s all guess work now, but he’d obviously been an outside chance were he to go anyway.
Goldi he was smashed by Jan Vermeer over 7f i think and Jan Vermeer is not a very quick horse by any stretch of the imagination. With the likelyhood he come against a real pacy St Nicholas Abbey i be suprised if he got anywhere near them.
Looks a Mouryilan type
He got beat over 8f by 2 1/2 lengths, not ‘smashed’ over 7f. On that basis, i still fail to see what outcome that has on the derby. Jan Vermeer is no slouch either, and has good derby credentials. I was kind of hoping you’d explain to me on breeding terms why a leger trip would suit better than 12f.
I’m amazed that Behtarini managed to have three runs in August and September on Good, Good to Yielding, and Good to Firm ground.
My remembrance is that the going was Soft in Ireland all Summer.
On the St Leger issue, Behtarini doesn’t meet the profile for that either. He just ain’t good enough.
Of the last 18 St Leger winners, 12 ran as 2yos. Only 2 of
those remained maidens as 2yos – Millenary, and Moonax, who characteristically UR. 10 out of the 11 with a RPR were rated 90+, whilst Behtarini is 84 after 3 races.St Leger winners have won approximately 50% of the races they have contested as 2yos, so the idea of suggesting horses that stay on one-paced for a place are St Leger types is misguided.
When I looked at the St Leger in the New Year, I couldn’t find a horse that met ALL the trends. I suggested looking for the winner in the Wood Ditton field, but I’ll just check now what were the races that the six winners who were unraced as 2yos ran in . . .
I’m still off-thread.
These are the debuts of the 6 St Leger winners who were unraced as 2yos:-
Lucarno – 8f Mdn at the Greenham meeting
Sixties Icon – Class 5 10f Mdn at the Craven meeting
Scorpion -10f Mdn at Leopardstown, early May
Nedawi – 12f Mdn at Goodwood, early June
Shantou – Wood Ditton
User Friendly – Class F Fillies Mdn, Whitbread meeting.
3 of the 6 won their debut.
"He got beat over 8f by 2 1/2 lengths, not ‘smashed’ over 7f. On that basis, i still fail to see what outcome that has on the derby. Jan Vermeer is no slouch either, and has good derby credentials. I was kind of hoping you’d explain to me on breeding terms why a leger trip would suit better than 12f."
Goldikova i just can’t have him on my mind….He is a maiden after 3 starts albeit ran in to Group 1 performers’s but still i just can’t see it. On breeding their is nothing to suggest he would be a better leger horse than Derby. But visually from my eyes….i don’t think he has enough class to win a Derby…he has run over 8f as a 2yr old which is a good indication that stamina rather than speed is his preference. I think he could be a ideal St. Leger horse where speed isn’t the emphasis.
Everyone entitled to their opinion and your is as valid as mine.
Another possible supplementary entry might be Behkabad, G3 winner over 1600m/12f in France last season for Rouget. By Cape Cross, which may have given reason to think he wouldn’t make the distance, until Ouija Board and particularly STS. Half-brother to Beheshtam, who is an actual "Leger type" (and now apparently a Melbourne Cup type), so there is presumably sufficient stamina from the dam.
I was just thinking that if connections believe that Siyouni will stay the Jockey Club’s extended 10f, then they might be inclined to send their 3yo with better stamina claims to Epsom.
Yes, the timings are now such that a horse can go Derby-Irish Derby-Grand Prix de Paris, or for the winners of the first two to meet in the latter. It is just a matter of time before it happens, and a matter of the Frenchies putting up enough prize money.
"He got beat over 8f by 2 1/2 lengths, not ‘smashed’ over 7f. On that basis, i still fail to see what outcome that has on the derby. Jan Vermeer is no slouch either, and has good derby credentials. I was kind of hoping you’d explain to me on breeding terms why a leger trip would suit better than 12f."
Goldikova i just can’t have him on my mind….He is a maiden after 3 starts albeit ran in to Group 1 performers’s but still i just can’t see it. On breeding their is nothing to suggest he would be a better leger horse than Derby. But visually from my eyes….i don’t think he has enough class to win a Derby…he has run over 8f as a 2yr old which is a good indication that stamina rather than speed is his preference. I think he could be a ideal St. Leger horse where speed isn’t the emphasis.
Everyone entitled to their opinion and your is as valid as mine.
Fair enough. I don’t actually think he’s a genuine contender, i just think that the derby distance would be more his trip. If he did go, he’d have to lose the maiden tag, then he’d maybe be a 33/1 outside shot. I got a big price a good while ago, but i’m under no illusions. He’s not in my mind about a potential winner.
Gerald, those are some stats. Do statistics dominate your betting psyche ? say for example you think horse A is slightly better than horse B by 2 pounds, but horse B meets your statistical criteria and ‘A’ doesn’t, who would you back ?
Good question ‘Goldikova’ – you gonna blow out on your debut again?!
Re: ‘Behkabad’ – in France he is thought of as being an Arc hope – as was ‘Beheshtam’.
I doubt that they’ll take another stayer to the Jockey Club when it’s well known that the race suits milers – maybe they’ll just wait ’til the Grand Prix for him?
In ‘Siyouni’ and ‘Dibir’ (at least he wasn’t a big price Gerald)! they have these…
The proximity of ‘Emirates Dream’ – is a bit worrrying…
http://www.zeturf.com/en/resultats/1387 … des-Chenes
The second ‘Arasin’ gives a form line to ‘Jan Vermeer’ – but that might not have been his running – wouldn’t be the first to flop at Saint – Cloud!
Gerald, those are some stats. Do statistics dominate your betting psyche ? say for example you think horse A is slightly better than horse B by 2 pounds, but horse B meets your statistical criteria and ‘A’ doesn’t, who would you back ?
Erm, I’ve only got stats for a very few races.
I think I am ever so very slightly at the end of the autistic range, as I like playing with and using numbers, and I’m slightly uncomfortable around other people.
I suppose I try not to confuse myself by doing stats for a race and studying the form for the race as well!
I genuinely can’t recall ever having a bet on the St Leger, so as far as I’m concerned, this is the first year that I’ll be betting on it. When I was ultra-strict on the St Leger on the 2yo Summary thread a few weeks ago, no horse met ALL the stats/trends!
I suppose I definitely ignore form figures when it comes to horses running on the right ground, and at a course they like.
A decade or so ago I almost exclusively used ratings, often my own. Now, I barely use them, in the sense of backing top-rated horses, but I do refer to them. I like betting big-priced horses, which is why I try to restrict myself to handicaps. I’ll refer to the ratings that horses have run off.
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