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If you were to compare the 2 Montjeu’s.
Jan Vermeer is by far and away the most impressive build of a horse i have ever seen. He is built like a brick House and looks a Monster compared to rather small sized St Nicholas.
Couldn’t have been more impressed imo
Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t you need a small, nimble, diminutive horse at a course like Epsom where it’s rather difficult to negotiate those contours and tight turns? Unoriginal I know, but I can’t see SNA not winning this despite a lacklustre Guineas performance. Should be prime come June.
Guessing games! – what will go where?! even in a Derby like this!
Plans should be made clear by now…it’s not as if there is strength or depth to be keeping guarded about anything i.e. who might turn up etc…
It should be ‘cards on the table time’ – long time before the next dec stage!
I’d say get on Jan Vermeer now.
Ladbrokes cheif of staff Mike Dillon is very close to the Coolmore Camp. I’ve notice in the past, when they are shorter on an AOB horse than everyone else, it usually runs and runs well. Jan Vermeer is 7/1 with Paddy Power yet only 5/1 (shortest) with Ladbrokes. Added to that, his exchanges price is shorter than bookmakers. If he’s an unlikely runner you’d expect him to be bigger than bookies on betfair; like Midas Touch and (in particular) Cape Blanco.
Jan Vermeer’s breeding is all stamina, he’s probably going to improve a good deal given 1m4f. Now proven on a firmer surface too (impressive 2 year old performance on very soft). Could be beaten if remaining at 1m2f (France). He’s never been a showy horse at home, big prices for his runs at two. So you’d expect St Nich to go the better on gallops.
St Nich is a worthy favourite but not a worthy 2/1. Yet to prove he’s equally effective on a firm surface, a little free in early stages at Newmarket. Doncaster form suggested he should’ve had enough speed for a mile in May. Bred to improve at 1m4f, but the way he races it’s not absolutely certain (though likely). High head carriage is probably just hereditary, but a lot of Montjeu’s progeny show temperament.
Midas Touch has twice been well beaten by Jan Vermeer. Won his trial, but did not strike me as though he’ll be an Epsom type. Sure to stay, but will he have speed to trouble them? Can’t see him travelling well enough, pushed along quite early in just a 4 runner trial. Can see him running at Epsom, but much prefer Jan Vermeer.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Midas Touch has twice been well beaten by Jan Vermeer.
Two year old form means nothing when looking at the classic pictures, yes he was beaten by Jan Vermeer on debut but why did Murtagh then go against Jan Vermeer in the Criterum with Midas Touch given by your assessment that he isn’t a better horse.
If you were to compare the 2 Montjeu’s.
Jan Vermeer is by far and away the most impressive build of a horse i have ever seen. He is built like a brick House and looks a Monster compared to rather small sized St Nicholas.
Couldn’t have been more impressed imo
Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t you need a small, nimble, diminutive horse at a course like Epsom where it’s rather difficult for a big horse to negotiate those contours and tight turn at Tattenham Corner? Unoriginal I know, but I can’t see SNA not winning this despite a lacklustre Guineas performance. Should be prime come June.
"Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t you need a small, nimble, diminutive horse at a course like Epsom where it’s rather difficult for a big horse to negotiate those contours and tight turn at Tattenham Corner? Unoriginal I know, but I can’t see SNA not winning this despite a lacklustre Guineas performance. Should be prime come June."
Spot on and i would agree with you as i said a few pages back and couldn’t fathom how Jan Vermeer would handle Epsom being such a big robust Horse. But i saw class i saw real class on Sunday. I was very doubtful that would have the speed over 1m2f to do what he did but he did it so easy and classy that i be surprised if he didn’t handle the Epsom Downs. He is pure class and when Johnny switched him is was a Tank with Dancing Feet. He is geting strong on Betfair and John Magnier won’t let a opportunity like this pass him by because Cape Blanco(may not stay but i think he will) Midas Touch(may not be good enough) and St Nich( could bomb out like the Guineas). Jan Vermeer is the Top card in the Deck to cover all bases.
I think Cape Blanco will go to France and win the 1m2f race? perfect for Stud. Need a real good 1m2f that can step up to 1m4f. Only other Galileo is Rip Van Winkle who is best at a mile by the looks of things. So they got both Sons of Galileo bases covered. I would expect Cape Blanco to step up to say the King George or a 1m4f race when needed for the Stud Book.
So i think we may have JV/SNA/MT all race in the Epsom Derby. The Work on Monday Morning before the Derby will reveal all on Betfair. All you sharp Shooters keep your cup of coffee and watch the price movements very carefully regarding JV
Well I suppose if you are a top class horse (like STS last year) then I suppose you can win anywhere. O’Brien has some serious horses this season after being eclipsed last ywar by Oxx’s freak of a horse, and has the Derby at his mercy. But, if SNA is as good as he’s meant to be, as was seen in a terrific 2 y/o campaign, then he is worthy favourite, even if 2/1 is still a little on the short side considering his Guineas win. JV did look incredibly good at the weekend, but I feel he still needs an acid test as he probably hasn’t beaten that much to date. He goes to Epsom as still something of an unknown quantity. I can’t really see beoynd these two, though it will be a fascinating race.
I really don’t think Cape Blanco or Jan Vermeer will run. Having either of them beaten by St. Nick (or vice versa) is not going to do any of their stud fees good. Far better to split them up and aim for 1-2s in both Derbies. The Montjeu to beat the Galileo in both IMO.
In my opinion Jan Vermeer will go to France, Cape Blanco will run at Epsom. As I have said Cape Blanco’s form is by a mile the best form in the book, Jan Vermeer’s victory was impressive, however the second horse was Bobbyscott who looks like a 12f horse. Midas Touch will turn out to be Ballydoyle’s ledger horse and SNA’s performance in the Guineas would not want me taking a price of 7/4 in the Derby. Cape Blanco all the way for me!
JohnJ
Midas Touch has twice been well beaten by Jan Vermeer.
Two year old form means nothing when looking at the classic pictures, yes he was beaten by Jan Vermeer on debut but why did Murtagh then go against Jan Vermeer in the Criterum with Midas Touch given by your assessment that he isn’t a better horse.
Murtagh got it wrong, he does sometimes. Jan Vermeer proved to be the better horse. The form of the French race is very good. Second, Emerald Commander had won a listed race "comfortably" last time and previously finished a close second to subsequant Racing Post second, Craven winner and 2000 Guineas 4th Elusive Pimpernel. Third was Rosanara, who’d come from winning the Marcel Boussac. Fourth was Midas Touch, who’s won an important trial this season. And all beaten easily by 4 lengths and more. JV proved his fitness and ability to handle a firmer surface at the weekend, when carrying a 7lb Group 1 penalty for another easy success.
Form of Midas Touch’s win this season is nothing special. The second was a well beaten 5th in the Ballysax, third was second in the same race. Both were only maiden winners.
Form is important, whether it is 2 year old or 3 year old. You can gleam important stuff from both. If it was not for 2 year old form, St Nich would not even be favourite.
Coolmoore always go for the Epsom Derby with their best horses. Their second 11 go to Chantilly. Anyone who believes Coolmore will dodge taking on their "best" 3 year old should remember Hawk Wing and High Chapperal. Both Rip Van Winkle and Fame And Glory ran in it last year, thrown 8 at it in the past. What if St Nicholas Abbey runs poorly, or gets beaten by Workforce (or whoever)? Surely it’s best to take their own horse on. If The Saint gets beat by his own stable companion, they’re likely to have two stallions instead of one, what a disaster. Coolmore haven’t won the Derby since (I believe) 2002, why should they leave behind a horse with around a 20% chance of winning it?
Maybe I am wrong, but I think 7/1 is well worth the risk of Jan Vermeer not turning up. Must surely have a better than 12.5% chance!
Value Is EverythingIt’s like this .The "Lads" meet this morning. Aidan says nothing. John speaks first."I am running a breeding operation.Both Montjeu and Galileo are top of the line studs.Whichever breeds another Derby winner will become supreme.I really don’t need another Sadler’s Wells Derby winner.Supply and demand you know,competing with myself and all that.So lets rule out any Sadler’s Wells.OK?" Everyone agrees.Michael Taabor speaks "I’d like to lead in another Derby winner so which are running in my colors?" "Well Mick" says Aidan SNA runs in Smithies colors,however Jan Vermeer runs in your colors Michael. But I don’t know if he would beat SNA, but Joseph he might"."Now" continues Aidan "we also have Midas Touch but he runs in Mrs M.’s colors right John?" "Correct Aidan.""However I don’t think he can turn the tables on JVM So that brings us to Cape Blanco" says Aidan
"However he runs in Smithie’s colors" "Right Smithie?""Right Aidan" "What does Joseph think of Cape Blanco Aidan" interjects John. "Joseph says he can’t be beaten" What do you think Aidan?"Well if Cape Blanco wins and Joseph is right then I better be on his side or the Missus will disown me." "I see" says big John. "That settles it then."So everyone prepares to leave when Mick speaks up "But what about Johanny has he been told that Cape Blanco is the one" "Of course not" says Aidan "Joseph is riding Cape Blanco".How AOB could not run Cape Blanco is absolutely absurd. He ran in the best Derby trial, and destroyed the field, easily, beating 3 horses who are expected to run in the race (Chabal, Co-ordinated Cut and Workforce).
If he doesn’t run in The Derby, I will personally lose a lot of respect for him.
It’s like this .The "Lads" meet this morning. Aidan says nothing. John speaks first."I am running a breeding operation.Both Montjeu and Galileo are top of the line studs.Whichever breeds another Derby winner will become supreme.I really don’t need another Sadler’s Wells Derby winner.Supply and demand you know,competing with myself and all that.So lets rule out any Sadler’s Wells.OK?" Everyone agrees.Michael Taabor speaks "I’d like to lead in another Derby winner so which are running in my colors?" "Well Mick" says Aidan SNA runs in Smithies colors,however Jan Vermeer runs in your colors Michael. But I don’t know if he would beat SNA, but Joseph he might"."Now" continues Aidan "we also have Midas Touch but he runs in Mrs M.’s colors right John?" "Correct Aidan.""However I don’t think he can turn the tables on JVM So that brings us to Cape Blanco" says Aidan
"However he runs in Smithie’s colors" "Right Smithie?""Right Aidan" "What does Joseph think of Cape Blanco Aidan" interjects John. "Joseph says he can’t be beaten" What do you think Aidan?"Well if Cape Blanco wins and Joseph is right then I better be on his side or the Missus will disown me." "I see" says big John. "That settles it then."So everyone prepares to leave when Mick speaks up "But what about Johanny has he been told that Cape Blanco is the one" "Of course not" says Aidan "Joseph is riding Cape Blanco".What is the point of that post?
JohnJ
That’s an unrealistic post Andy.
AOB starts every sentence with "listen…".
Value Is EverythingHow AOB could not run Cape Blanco is absolutely absurd. He ran in the best Derby trial, and destroyed the field, easily, beating 3 horses who are expected to run in the race (Chabal, Co-ordinated Cut and Workforce).
If he doesn’t run in The Derby, I will personally lose a lot of respect for him.
Cape Blanco was lame after the Dante and is far from certain to stay 1m4f. Epsom is about the worst course you could take a horse prone to lameness. Chantilly is flat and their Derby is over shorter. So I’d say France is the best option for the horse. Not absurd at all.
Holes can be picked in the form too. Chabal ran no sort of race and Workforce did not show what he could do (slipping bitt). Was beating Coordinated Cut by that far Derby winning form?
Keep an eye on Bin Surroor’s form, if he starts firing them in Chabal could be value (big IF). With lameness and stamina worries about Cape Blanco, Workforce could reverse the placings if taking his chance.Value Is EverythingJan Vermeer now down to top priced 13/2 (in just one place) with Tote, it won’t last long.
Value Is Everything
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