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It should set up some interesting possibilities next season.
Despite the owner of Cracksman stating that he won’t fear Enable with the more mature Cracksman, I wouldn’t mind betting that where she goes, Cracksman may have a Golf Match prearranged that same day.
4/1 Enable for the Arc may look big next year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Great for racing and a very sporting decision by Juddmonte.
Personally I don’t think Cracksman would get within 3 lengths of Enable on a going day.
Timeform have Enable on 134 for her Arc victory. How does that compare with other filly champions of recent years?
Treve 134 1st Arc, 129 2nd Arc
Zarkava 133
Danedream 132Personally I’d have Enable’s win on 132 alongside Danedream. Enable could well prove to be the best of the lot, and I think she will, but quite simply the form of this year’s Arc doesn’t stack up to that of Zarkava’s or Treve’s first win. To have Enable on 134 means you have to have Cloth of Stars on 132, and Order of St George on 128 over 12 furlongs.
Ulysses is a proper Group 1 horse and stays 12f, but he is undoubtedly a better horse over 10f. Who did she beat that is a proper Group 1 winner over 12f?
Danedream achieved a rating of 132 for easily beating:
2nd Shareta – winner of the Vermeille and Yorkshire Oaks
3rd Snow Fairy – Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes winner
4th So You Think – multiple Group 1 winner.Treve’s first Arc win deserves to be head and shoulders the best Arc performance by a filly this century in my opinion, and to have Enable on the same rating, and ahead of Zarkava, confirms what I had began to suspect for a long time; that Timeform are losing the plot.
Great news
Enable ran once as a two year old and has 8 life time runs has nothing in her breeding to suggest along with her being lightly raced that she can’t improve again at 4. I certainly can’t see any weight for age arguments with this one.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Based on how the Prince kept his last top class filly Midday in training as a 4 & 5 yr old (she improved a lot from her 3 yr old season), this kind of comes under the heading of a ‘no brainer’ decision.
Interesting to note that we are now getting talk of a Winx v Enable race and should the Aussie winning machine come over (it has been mentioned for a three race campaign) I can only see a likely encounter taking place at York in the Juddmonte.
The stiff mile of the Queen Anne seems to be the preferred option for Winx rather than the 10F Prince of Wales St at Ascot (which may stretch her stamina), whereas the easier 10.5F flat course at York going left handed (which connections also say suit the Aussie mare better) would seem a viable option – assuming Enable’s connections want to drop her in trip, which is by no means a given, you would have to guess they would need to make a lot more use of her to bring her stamina into play as she won’t have the same speed as Winx.
Next season will be very Interesting if everyone turns up in form and it wouldn’t be a surprised to me if Cracksman is able to beat Enable over 12F but it will be interesting to see who connections get to ride him following on from all the nonsense Oppenheimer spouted over not wanting anyone but Dettori.
Great for racing and a very sporting decision by Juddmonte.
Personally I don’t think Cracksman would get within 3 lengths of Enable on a going day.
Timeform have Enable on 134 for her Arc victory. How does that compare with other filly champions of recent years?
Treve 134 1st Arc, 129 2nd Arc
Zarkava 133
Danedream 132Personally I’d have Enable’s win on 132 alongside Danedream. Enable could well prove to be the best of the lot, and I think she will, but quite simply the form of this year’s Arc doesn’t stack up to that of Zarkava’s or Treve’s first win. To have Enable on 134 means you have to have Cloth of Stars on 132, and Order of St George on 128 over 12 furlongs.
Ulysses is a proper Group 1 horse and stays 12f, but he is undoubtedly a better horse over 10f. Who did she beat that is a proper Group 1 winner over 12f?
Danedream achieved a rating of 132 for easily beating:
2nd Shareta – winner of the Vermeille and Yorkshire Oaks
3rd Snow Fairy – Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks and Irish Champion Stakes winner
4th So You Think – multiple Group 1 winner.Treve’s first Arc win deserves to be head and shoulders the best Arc performance by a filly this century in my opinion, and to have Enable on the same rating, and ahead of Zarkava, confirms what I had began to suspect for a long time; that Timeform are losing the plot.
Shareta’s best four performance ratings were:
122 for the Arc.
122 for the Vermaille.
120 Yorkshire Oaks.
120 second in the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud.Snow Fairy and So You Think have excellent Group 1 winning records, but it does not mean they both ran to form in Danedream’s Arc. Both came from further back than the two that beat them, winding their way through. Personally, given their overall records I think it’s fairly obvious Snow Fairy and So You Think are better horses than Shareta, so the fact they were 3rd and 4th means nothing as far as how good Danedream is.
Zarkava beat Youmzain 2 lengths. It’s often thought just because Sea The Stars beat Youmzain the same distance that Zarkava must be in the same bracket. But Sea The Star’s Timeform Master Rating was from a completely different race. In fact Sea The Stars performance rating was only 129+. Cavalryman only a head behind Youmzain and nothing he ever did suggests is worthy of finishing around 2 1/4 lengths behind the great Sea The Stars. Just 1/2 length behind Youmzain in Zarkava’s Arc were dead heaters 100+/1 shot It’s Gino and Soldier Of Fortune. It’s Gino had no significant form prior to this and didn’t run again. Beaten only a total of 2 1/2 lengths by Zarkava, the same distance Enable beat Cloth Of Stars. Soldier Of Fortune and Youmzain met three times that year. Other twice being… Coronation Cup – SOF beat Y 3/4 length, Prix de Saint Cloud – Y beat SOF 1/2 length (same as the Arc). Soldier Of Fortune was a good horse, also winning the Irish Derby, but I wouldn’t say he was any better than Ulysses.
Treve was a “Wow” filly in that first Arc. At the time I even started a thread asking (if memory serves) “Is Treve the best ever filly”. But fact is Treve never produced a similar performance either before or after. Second Arc Timeform rated 5 lbs inferior to the first. Orfevre ran well, but was he at his very best? Only a neck further back Intello, who’d been beaten 1 3/4 by Moonlight Cloud and Olympic Glory over a mile. In pounds, at that distance 1 3/4 isn’t much worse than 5 at 1m4f; a pound, possibly 2 at a push. Unfortunately Intello never ran again, fourth placed Kizuna did though. But according to Timeform ratings neither before or in five races afterwards did he get within a couple of pounds of the Arc performance. Fifth placed Penglai Pavillion even worse, never produced anything like as good form before or since.
Zarkava was unbeaten and had a record of progressive form culminating in that wonderful Arc. Her best Timeform performance rating by 6 lbs. Sadly, never got to prove the rating correct as swept off to stud.
Although Danedream went on to win the King George at four, she didn’t have to run to the sort of form produced in that Arc.
Treve won a second Arc and other races, but never again ran to the same form, on Timeform ratings always upwards of 5 lbs short.
Treve, Danedream and Zarkava all only really have one stand out performance each.
It’s very difficult to judge one year against another. Always possible to look at any form and drag it down a pound or two (as I’ve shown above). I don’t know whether Gosden’s filly is better than Treve or Zarkava or Danedream; but – unlike those three -I do know Enable can already be rated exceptional on more than one performance and remains in training! Something to look forward to and celebrate.
Value Is Everythinggreat read GT,this for me though is where you have to use figures along with many other factors.
For me zarkava could probably have beaten many with better ‘figures’ than her, as she would have sat and sat and pounced late. My reading of Zarkava’s figure was it probably didn’t do her justice, because of the way she raced she was never going to win half the trackgreat read GT,this for me though is where you have to use figures along with many other factors.
For me zarkava could probably have beaten many with better ‘figures’ than her, as she would have sat and sat and pounced late. My reading of Zarkava’s figure was it probably didn’t do her justice, because of the way she raced she was never going to win half the trackI agree that Zarkava was “never going to win by half the track”, nwalton. But a lot of that can be allowed for in a rating. Horses that win by a shortish margin with something in hand, can be marked up for ease of victory. Also sometimes possible to up the rating due to sectional times. eg In a slowly run race a hold up horse might have done even better than it looked at first sight – because of a positional disadvantage.
Timeform have Zarkava’s Performance rating (what distances suggest the performance is worth) at 130. Her Master Rating after the Arc was upped not to 130 but to 133 because – as you rightly say – 130 would not do her justice.
Value Is Everythingi understand that you can mark up a performance GT, but I believe that a horses running style similar to Zarkava (pouncing fairly late and just doing enough) you only find out how good(rating wise) he/she was when getting beat.
It would be a very facile argument to say neither Snow Fairy nor So You Think ran to form in Danedream’s Arc Ginger, there isn’t sufficient evidence to support that claim. It is much more likely that Shareta ran to a career best, and a whopping career best of +8lbs , which was no doubt aided by her having the run of the race at the front.
So You Think came from the back but he had a relatively untroubled passage and he has no excuses on that front, plus he was a 10f horse so coming from off the pace would have suited him perfectly.
Snow Fairy typically raced off the pace also, with great success I should add, so using that to crab the form simply doesn’t add up.
The Arc is a strange race and quite often you get massively priced outsiders sneaking into contention. Retrospectively Shareta’s performance wasn’t all that surprising I should think.
Putting Shareta aside, if Snow Fairy and So You Think were to race in this year’s Arc, do you not think they would at least finish in 3rd and 4th in place of Ulysses and Order of St George? You have to remember I am not trying to make a case that Danedream’s Arc was better than Enable’s, rather that they should be rated equally.
And it is very harsh to say Zarkava only had one stand out performance. She easily defeated 13-time Group 1 winner Goldikova in not one, but two French Classics. Her defeat of Dar Re Mi in the Vermeille was also nothing if not exceptional.
It would be a very facile argument to say neither Snow Fairy nor So You Think ran to form in Danedream’s Arc Ginger, there isn’t sufficient evidence to support that claim. It is much more likely that Shareta ran to a career best, and a whopping career best of +8lbs , which was no doubt aided by her having the run of the race at the front.
So You Think came from the back but he had a relatively untroubled passage and he has no excuses on that front, plus he was a 10f horse so coming from off the pace would have suited him perfectly.
Snow Fairy typically raced off the pace also, with great success I should add, so using that to crab the form simply doesn’t add up.
The Arc is a strange race and quite often you get massively priced outsiders sneaking into contention. Retrospectively Shareta’s performance wasn’t all that surprising I should think.
Putting Shareta aside, if Snow Fairy and So You Think were to race in this year’s Arc, do you not think they would at least finish in 3rd and 4th in place of Ulysses and Order of St George? You have to remember I am not trying to make a case that Danedream’s Arc was better than Enable’s, rather that they should be rated equally.
And it is very harsh to say Zarkava only had one stand out performance. She easily defeated 13-time Group 1 winner Goldikova in not one, but two French Classics. Her defeat of Dar Re Mi in the Vermeille was also nothing if not exceptional.
100% with you. That was an impressivly skewed view on the level of opposition Zarkava and Danedream have beaten.
It would be a very facile argument to say neither Snow Fairy nor So You Think ran to form in Danedream’s Arc Ginger, there isn’t sufficient evidence to support that claim. It is much more likely that Shareta ran to a career best, and a whopping career best of +8lbs , which was no doubt aided by her having the run of the race at the front.
So You Think came from the back but he had a relatively untroubled passage and he has no excuses on that front, plus he was a 10f horse so coming from off the pace would have suited him perfectly.
Snow Fairy typically raced off the pace also, with great success I should add, so using that to crab the form simply doesn’t add up.
The Arc is a strange race and quite often you get massively priced outsiders sneaking into contention. Retrospectively Shareta’s performance wasn’t all that surprising I should think.
Putting Shareta aside, if Snow Fairy and So You Think were to race in this year’s Arc, do you not think they would at least finish in 3rd and 4th in place of Ulysses and Order of St George? You have to remember I am not trying to make a case that Danedream’s Arc was better than Enable’s, rather that they should be rated equally.
And it is very harsh to say Zarkava only had one stand out performance. She easily defeated 13-time Group 1 winner Goldikova in not one, but two French Classics. Her defeat of Dar Re Mi in the Vermeille was also nothing if not exceptional.
Your arguement makes no sense at all to me.
It would be a very facile argument to say neither Snow Fairy nor So You Think ran to form in Danedream’s Arc Ginger, there isn’t sufficient evidence to support that claim. It is much more likely that Shareta ran to a career best, and a whopping career best of +8lbs , which was no doubt aided by her having the run of the race at the front.
You’ve just given the evidence that supports that claim, Voleur.
If the form rating Shareta was able to run to was as you say “no doubt aided by having the run of the race at the front”, then it stands to reason those coming from the back and/or held up were at a positional disadvantage compared to both Shareta and anything else ridden more prominently. Therefore if horses are at a positional disadvantage it’s impossible for them to run to their best form. Or to put it another way: Compared to what you’d expect on “form”, Snow Fairy and So You Think’s position (in lengths) will not be as good in relation to those coming from a better position (Shareta and Danedream).Yes, So You Think’s best form was at 10f, another reason why he was below form at 12f.
Just because a horse has come from the back to win/run well in a race where the run of the race favours hold up horses, does not mean it will run to form when held up in a race that does not favour hold up horses. Had Snow Fairy and So You Think run as they both did in 2008 (held up) then no, I very much doubt they’d have beaten Ulysses and Order Of St George/finished 3rd and 4th. Because this year’s race also gave positional advantage to those ridden closer to the front. Nothing held up or dropped out making the frame.
Enable – Always Handy
Cloth Of Stars – Mid-div
Ulysses – Always prominent
Order Of St George – Always close up
Brametot – close upDo you really think Goldikova was at her best in May of her three year old season? That would make horses like Modern Look, Azabara, Psalm and Blue Cayenne all as good if not better than a lot of the horses Goldikova met in later open Group 1 company. Surely not?
imo Zark put up a good performance in the French Guineas in beating Goldikova, but both fillies went on to improve in to exceptional fillies.If you think Zark’s Vermaille victory in the same bracket as her Arc, then it’s you who’s doing the great filly a diservice, Velour.
Zarkava beat Dar Re Mi 2 lengths with 1 1/2 back to Michita in third – in the Vermaille.
Lush Lashes beat Dar Re Mi 1 1/4 lengths in her previous race – the Yorkshire Oaks – with Michita 3 1/2 lengths further behind in third.
2 – 1.25 = 0.75. Is Zarkava only a 3/4 length better filly than Lush Lashes?
I think Zarkava was a far better horse than her Vermaille form suggests.Value Is EverythingZarkava beat Dar Re Mi 2 lengths with 1 1/2 back to Michita in third – in the Vermaille.
Lush Lashes beat Dar Re Mi 1 1/4 lengths in her previous race – the Yorkshire Oaks – with Michita 3 1/2 lengths further behind in third.
2 – 1.25 = 0.75. Is Zarkava only a 3/4 length better filly than Lush Lashes?
I think Zarkava was a far better horse than her Vermaille form suggests.The Vermaille is not the Arc.
In one race you are only going to do what you have to in the other you are going to do everything you have to
The Vermaille for Zarkava at least was nothing more than a stepping stone/warm up/prep, it’s a pre season friendly before an FA Cup Final.
Zarkava if memory serves me right was very slow out of the gate in that race but even if she was 1st out the gate it wouldn’t make a lot of difference because the jockey was only ever going to win on the bridle and doing it as easy as possible, no-one is breaking records in prep races.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Exactly Nathan, Zark improved quite a bit from the Vermaille to Arc.
Value Is EverythingGinger you have made this beyond convoluted, in support of an argument that I’m not sure you fully believe yourself. Your words here make it seem like you are arguing simply for arguments sake:
It’s very difficult to judge one year against another. Always possible to look at any form and drag it down a pound or two (as I’ve shown above). I don’t know whether Gosden’s filly is better than Treve or Zarkava or Danedream; but – unlike those three -I do know Enable can already be rated exceptional on more than one performance and remains in training! Something to look forward to and celebrate.
You say that you don’t understand my argument but I’m still not sure what it is exactly you are arguing? I am making a case that Enable’s Arc should equate to Danedream’s on 132, but what is your point exactly? That all of Treve’s, Zarkava’s and Danedream’s Arc’s are overrated?
You’ve just given the evidence that supports that claim, Voleur.
If the form rating Shareta was able to run to was as you say “no doubt aided by having the run of the race at the front”, then it stands to reason those coming from the back and/or held up were at a positional disadvantage compared to both Shareta and anything else ridden more prominently. Therefore if horses are at a positional disadvantage it’s impossible for them to run to their best form. Or to put it another way: Compared to what you’d expect on “form”, Snow Fairy and So You Think’s position (in lengths) will not be as good in relation to those coming from a better position (Shareta and Danedream).Ginger I absolutely have not. Just because one horse benefits from running near the pace doesn’t mean every horse would. As I have said So You Think was a 10f horse and had a lot of pace, coming from the back would have ensured him the best possible finishing place. If So You Think had raced more prominently he most likely would have finished lower than 4th, as his stamina would have failed when going toe to toe with the proper 12f horses in Danedream, Shareta and Snow Fairy.
It’s not as black and white as you make it out to be Ginger, as you say comparing years is very difficult. Basically you are saying that because the horses who filled the places in this years Arc all raced prominently, means that racing prominently would have ensured similar results in Danedream’s Arc 7 years ago? Pretty absurd in my opinion. Also Cloth of Stars and Snow Fairy had nearly identical positioning in their respective Arcs, so again, using that to crab the form doesn’t add up.
Now, I said Shareta benefitted from being raced prominently. That does not, under any circumstances, mean that So You Think nor Snow Fairy would have benefitted from doing similarly. If you watch Shareta’s two other highest rated performances, in the Vermeille and Yorkshire Oaks, you will noticed that she also raced very prominently. She is clearly a horse that benefits from being shown daylight and being allowed to bowl along in front. It is no coincidence that Shareta’s three best performances came from racing prominently. Likewise, it is no coincidence that Snow Fairy’s best performances – Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks – came from racing off the pace. Of course a slowly run race can change the effectiveness of this drastically, but of course as we know Danedream’s Arc was the second fastest ever ran. Therefore coming from off the pace could only have been a benefit to Snow Fairy, and more importantly, the 10f horse So You Think.
Yes, So You Think’s best form was at 10f, another reason why he was below form at 12f.
That is my point exactly with Ulysses Ginger, he is a 10f horse who finished closer to Enable than So You Think did to Danedream, yet Enable’s win is rated higher. So You Think is undoubtedly better over 10f, as is Ulysses. Danedream stamped her authority over the 10f horse better than Enable did, yet you maintain Enable’s win was 2lbs superior. Again Ginger, I am making a case that both their Arc’s should be rated equally. I’m still not sure what you are trying to do except tear down Danedream’s.
As for Zarkava, I never put her win in the Vermeille in the same bracket as the Arc. I do think it is was exceptional, whereas you believe she “only had one stand out perfroamce.”
Come on Ginger, if handicapping races was only as simple as measuring the amount of lengths between them at the finish line then we wouldn’t have to pay experts to do it for us. Zarkava’s win in the Vermeille was exceptional for a multitude of reasons. She missed the break by 4 or 5 lengths, which for a lesser horse would have spelt the end (see Brametot in this years D’ornano Stakes). Coming around the home turn she had 30 odd lengths to make up on the leader, and while she was a hold up horse, even her staunchest supported must have worried she had left herself too much to do. Dar Re Mi, who was officially rated 120 at the time, I’m not sure of her TFR, was positioned perfectly to kick for home. Yet Zarkava swept passed them all, without barely coming off the bridle. She was actually eased down in the final few strides to score by 2 lengths. Figures alone could never put a worthy evaluation on that performance Ginger, not by a long way.
If that win wasn’t exceptional, I don’t know what is.
In fact, I believe you should watch this video Ginger. Amid the commentators delirious French shouting, you can make out one word clearer than the rest; “exceptionnel.”
Vive la France.
Velour,
You’ve vastly exaggerated a performance, Zarkava did not miss the break by “4 to 5 lengths” (it was in fact less) and losing lengths at the start does not directly mean you can add that many lengths to a winning performance, anyway. Neither was she “Coming around the home turn she had 30 odd lengths to make up on the leader”. Therefore am not surprised you have an exaggerated view of how the winner should be rated.In 7 races out of 9 from 22nd August 2008 to November 2009 Dar Re Mi ran to a Timeform performance rating of either 118 or 119, including in the vermaille (September 2008). Therefore, it is highly unlikely Dar Re Mi’s performance was any better than 119. Michita given a Timeform performance rating of 113 for that race – her best rating – ran to either 110 and 111 in three races that year. So Zarkava beat a horse rated 119 by 1 1/2 lengths… And beat a horse rated 113 by a total of 3 1/2 lengths. On distances alone Zarkava is only a 121 performance rating. But as you rightly say, it is not about distances alone…
– What is your definition of an “exceptional” rating? Mine is for a male horse to have a Timeform Master Rating of 135+ and a female 132+. –
…So the question is:
How much more than 121 is Zarkava’s Vermaille running worth for her Master Timeform Rating?
Or to put it another way:
How many more lengths (than 1 1/2) would she have won by without being positionally disadvantaged? 4? 5? 8? 11?Yes, I believe Zarkava’s Master Timeform Rating after the Vermaille should be better than 121, but not as much as 132. So although very good, it can not imo be rated as exceptional.
Value Is Everything
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