Elementary VDW

[Formath]

I enjoy watching the Cheltenham Festival but assessing the form in detail makes my brain ache .I thought why not use an elementary VDW approach this year, no ‘subject to other considerations’ and weighing up trainer startegy, just go with consistency and the market. As a work up I have attempted Doncaster today, where if I manage 3 winners I will be delighted .

Doncaster
2.10 Bellflower Boy
2.40 Coeur De Fou
3.15 Always Right
3.50 Vertige Dore
4.25 Close House
5.00 Lake Legend
5.35 Silk Drum

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Great stuff

Formath

a thread devoted to VDW.

I am with you regarding Bellflower Boy and Always Right plus I have The Sawyer 2.25 Newbury.

It is interesting to compare selections as I am using your 4 principles but with some different tools.

I will take a lot of interest in your festival pics if only to see what we both achieve.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Huntingdon on a Sunday with a generally below mid-grade card on going the soft side of good, mustn’t complain though as Henderson and AP are turning up . Two winners would be satisfactory today .

Huntingdon
2.10 Robin de Creuse
2.40 Baan
3.10 Lyster
3.40 Marc of Brilliance
4.10 If I Had Him
4.40 Extra Bold
5.10 Kaylif Aramis

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Following a small profit yesterday

Formath

I looked at the races again for today but as you say they are not of the highest grade.

I am against you for my two at Huntingdon: –

2.00 WESTERN WHISKEY (selected as lowest FcSp of 2)
4.40 BERTENBAR (also taken as lowest FcSp of 3)

Plus one at Sedgefield 2.50 CATCH BOB (4* and clear by +1)

Billy's Outback Shack

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Having just managed to check your selections for Doncaster I can only say I’M IMPRESSED

Formath

.

What a shame Silk Drum in the final race let you down otherwise you could have boasted a full house of wins and places.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
From impressed to depressed in one day , that’s the ‘pattern of results’ for you. I took a look at the Ffos Las card tomorrow where these look like ‘possibles’ for consideration at present:

Ffos Las (7th March)
2.20 Jolly Roger,then Timesawastin
2.50 (Not got a clue really – No 7?)
3.25 Island Jim, then Shake The Barley
4.00 Sparrow Hills
4.35 Tora Bora, or Stop The Show
5.10 Oca De Thaix, then What Of It
5.40 Koultas King, or Henok

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Hey

Formath

, we did not have such a good day and following recent trends little by little my accrued profits have dwindled away.

But again I am being nosey and hope you will offer your opinion.

Looking at Ffos Las and Newton Abbot for Monday there is not too much to get over excited about but is perhaps a typical day in the nh season and would like to know how you go about making the best choice of three.

Ffos Las: –

2.20 Novice-7 decl.- C4 £2439

3.25 Hcp-7 decl.- C4 £3090

4.00 Hcp-8 decl-C3 £4554

Newton Abbot

2.30 Hcp-6 decl-C4 £3085

3.05 Hcp-7 decl-C4 £2706

3.40 Novice-4 Decl-C3 £5672

4.15 Hcp-9 decl-C4 £2706

The 3.40 is the most valuable but would you consider it with only 4 runners and being a novice race?

I have chosen 3.25 – 4.00 at Ffos Las and 2.30 Newton Abbot, am I right?

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

We have crossed potings

Formath

but would still like your answers if possible.

The two races I have covered at Ffos Las have shown my possible selections again differ from yours.

3.25 SILVER STORY

4.00 ZAKATAL

Alesandro Mantegno

The 4 runner at N Abbot 3.40 is

IKORODU ROAD

2.30 is

RILEYEV

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,

Nwt 3.40 Ikorodo Road looks OK as a VDW selection, although it looks a difficult ride (Rebel Du Maquis – Nicholls is noted).

From a VDW standpoint, Newton Abbot is the principal meeting so consider the top two prize money races – 2.30, 3.40.
2.30 is a class 4 and now Trooper Clarence a winner last time has been withdrawn so eliminate the race.
Ffos Las just consider the top prize money race 4.00 a class 3 hcap hurdle and not bad so Mickmacmagoogle (Williams/McCoy) is a fair choice too. However, I am biased against hcap hurdle races with my poor record and there are two dangers in Zakatal (Hobbs/Johnson best combo) and Sparrow Hill (most consistent).

Newton Abbot is the VDW course for today, poor prices tho’
2.00 Alla Svelta
2.30 Rileyev
3.05 Milo Milan
3.40 Ikorodu Road
4.15 Round The Horn
4.50 Themilanhorse
5.20 Lois Pasteur

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Formath

All is going very well so far at Newton Abbot.

BUT did you realise you highlighted the 1,2 & 3 4.00 Ffos Las and the Tricast paid £108

Billy's Outback Shack

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Won 6/5 – Won 1/1 – Won 3/1 – Lost – 2nd 15/8 – Won 6/4 and yet another winner in the final race at 4/6

5 winners, a second and a loser

Must try harder

Formath

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Formath

It will be too much of a rush for me in the morning and so my challenge to The Master is: –

Newcastle
3.20 The Ferbane Man 4* (Jt. decided on FcSp)
3.50 Willie Hall 3* (clear by 1)
4.50 Camden George 4* (clear by 2)

I was unable to get clear results from the better races at Exeter.

Bill

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,

Your selections look OK for Newcastle and the only cautionary note I would add is the going may be on the heavy side, so I will be going to Exeter

Newcastle
3.20 The Ferbane Man
3.50 Willie Hall
4.50 Categorical

The VDW selections today are at Exeter, which is a below mid-grade card on GS.

2.30 Semi Colon
3.00 Roalco Des Farges
3.30 Shaking Hands
4.00 Aztec Treasure
4.30 Glitzy D’Ocala
5.00 Man Of Leisure

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Formath

2 from 3 (incl. 11/2 winner) at Newcastle.

Despite the softer ground it looked easier pickings for the punter than Exeter which was expected not to be the case.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Hello (again)

Formath

.

I have found it a bit of a struggle to equate Class 4 races with form good enough to warrent being rated and in doing so have jumped 3 cards rather than 2 top from main meeting plus one other.

However after much brainwork here are my 3 for Wednesday.

Fontwell 3.30 BEWARE CHALK PIT 3*

Catterick 4.20 SWEET CAROLINE 4* (clear)

Kempton 6.30 SCAMPERDALE 4* (clear)

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,

I agree with you that today’s racing appears to be poor fare for assessment by the VDW approach, however, on the basis that something has to win…….

Fon 3.30 Lady De La Vega (Beware Chalk is the obvious form choice but is not one of the three most consistent).

Cat 4.20 Kykate (Flora’s Pride is the alternative but in my case not confirmed by the expert rating. Sweet Caroline is not one of the three most consistent).

Kem 6.30 Scamperdale (ticks all the boxes . Layline being the alternative).

[Formath]

Bill,
I have attempted the Fontwell card today, albeit with misgivings over the consistency

2.00 Clowance House
2.30 Floradora
3.00 Gurtacrue
3.30 Beware Chalk (now that Lady De La Vega is a non-runner)
4.00 I Can Run Can You
4.30 Delgany Gunner
5.00 Howard’s Legacy

[Author]

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