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With Mishriff, yes he might need the run, especially when thinking of what happened in last year’s Eclipse. But had his International victory been last time out he’d be the 13/8 favourite here, not 9/1. So the difference is massive. Probability is he won’t be ready but there comes a point when the price makes it worth backing and taking the chance. Particularly as we know Gosden’s pessimistic tendencies and / or likes to limit expectations with horses coming back after a break. Inspiral was deemed not ready for the English then Irish Guineas and yet not long after bolted up in the Coronation.
Value Is EverythingMust admit I struggle with the idea of any trainer using a Group 1 as a pipe opener for another Group 1, so I think Mishriff will be ready to give a good account of himself.
I really like Vadeni, but sounds like they’re going to drop him out last no matter how slow the early pace and if that’s the case he might need to be Sea Bird reincarnate over the last 3f.
No horse who finished last on his previous appearance is a certainty, but on a point of value it has to be Mishriff for me.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m surprised that Modern Games is not here, he would have liked the conditions. Apparently he’s also not in America to contest the Belmont Derby Invitational, instead the connection sent Nation Pride. I hope all is well with MG…
In my view, Vadeni is way overrated based solely on his last race. First of all, I don’t believe Buick should have gone for the lead with Modern games especially from stall 13 in the bog. The horse is not a front-runner and he was pressed on his outside throughout. Despite that, he stayed well (3rd) under the circumstances and I wonder whether Vadeni would have won by 5 lengths if he had to make all from stall 13. Highly unlikely, he would have been dead last by 5!…
Native Trail, for me…
Vadeni out to 5/2, which I believe is now a backable price for a 3 year old getting the weight and that won well last time. I doubt he would be that price if he was trained in Britain or Ireland.
The case for Mishriff is well made, so have had a small saver at 17/2. As I posted after Inspiral won at Royal Ascot, I do not believe Gosden is going to use one of the most prestigious races of the season to get a horse fit.
Fair play to Andrew Cooper on this occasion – I have no complaints about a going stick reading of 7.7 with a forecast dry day ahead.
One swallow does not a summer make but if this is the start of a return towards Good to Firm summer Flat racing ground being considered acceptable I am all for it.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Vadeni’s French Derby wasn’t a “bog”, Turk.
Just look at the race time, beat Racing Post Standard 0.65 seconds fast.
Very little turf kick back.
…And distance between the 2nd and last (15th) horse far less than you’d expect in a “bog”, was only 10 lengths.Evidence points to the actual going on French Derby day as no softer than Good.
Value Is EverythingHaven’t had a bet in the race but Mishriff would be the one at the prices if it wasn’t for the fact he blatantly needed the run in the same race last year off the same prep. The key bit of form for me is what he did to Alenquer at York last year. Alenquer has improved but he links Lord North and the other older brigade from the Tatt Gold Cup, Mishriff made him look a G3 horse. Bay Bridge hasnt had enough chances to distinguish himself from that group yet but hes priced like hes definetly a lot better than Alenquer and Lord North and we don’t know he is, plenty went wrong for Lord North at Ascot to say without doubt he didnt run his race. Native Trail needs to be better still over this trip than a mile, not convinced on the breeding there myself. Vadeni… was the French Derby actually that good? Need more evidence myself but no qualms with him as favourite, if it was good-soft not good-firm I think he’d be a lot shorter. Intersesting race though but no bet for me.
Native trail has to prove he,ll stay but he,s big enough to have a play , I’ve also got to have a tickle on Lord North , you,ve got to back to the 1800s for a 6 year old winner but he,s a very classy horse on his day and I’ve played the e.w with him , any of the 6 could win this
While I can understand people wanting Mishriff at the price and I didn’t mean to indicate this was being used as a prep for a future G1, he has previous of not being cherry ripe on his first run off a significant break.
Whilst Gosden underplayed Inspiral off the back of her break, I don’t see it as being a similar scenario as fillies can be notoriously difficult to come to hand early in the season going from 2 to 3 and you have to wait until they give you signs they are ready to roll, Mishriff on the other hand is a fully developed older horse that history shows needs his first run off a break in normal circumstance and this year he has had a nasty incident first time out which may have set him back further than normal.
I understand the potential tactics for the French horse simply because if the pace is slow/messy it then turns into a typical French race, which will suit him but unlikely any of the others and a fast pace may also suit a closer – regardless of how the race is run I don’t think Native Trail is good enough as he doesn’t seem to have the tactical speed and I am not sure he wants 10F as he could just be a strong stayer at a mile…….cue him romping home.
I am still going to side with Bay Bridge, think he will sit behind Alenquer (if he makes it a decent clip) or Ryan may decide to go on himself to avoid a repeat of the POW outcome.
Gosden also has recent history for using this as a prep race despite it being a G1 – Enable was only said to be 75% or something like that if I recall when Ghaiyyath beat her, he could no doubt have found plenty of easier options to start her off.
Just want to say there are some pretty impressive posts in this thread. Proper great reading. Fantastic!
How the f*** is Bay Bridge favourite for this?
Only Sir Michael’s reputation with older horses is in his favour; he won an egg and spoon race in the Brigadier Gerard and was turned over by a humdrum, by Group One standards, horse at Ascot.
I don’t lay horses but this is lay of the season.
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