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I think it’s going to favour whoever front runs / races prominently and also who settles in a slower run race.
Value Is EverythingLatest going stick reading on the round course is 7.3.
By Cooperman standards that’s firmer than the A3.
He won’t be having that for one minute – expect more “Cooperfication” between now and the day.
Rumour has it Saint Andrew puts holy water in the sprinklers.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"tbh I don’t think any of the runners will be suited by firm, so why not water?
Value Is EverythingIf the going is unsafe then water if not get on with it
can remember Gosden crying at the Curragh over the going and Kingman.
If you’re not happy take your ball (horse) homeBlackbeard to conquer the World
I think the fav has a nice action and will enjoy the ground he will be able to change gear off a slow pace but can he do it over here? too short in this for me. It’s also A reason why I picked lord north in the POW in 2020 I think lord north has a good chance here too. I believe Native trail will be exposed going against proven 1 mile and a quarter group 1 winners his action is not ideal for good/firm. This is wide open IMO who leads? Alenquer possibly? he beat yibir and adayer at sandown but it was slowly ran. I think there is value in lord north being able to quicken up at the prices and doesn’t mind the ground. It’s a very interesting race to say the least happy to be on an outsider
“Let’s see what the times are like tomorrow…”
Gladders knows.
Going stick reading today 7.3, but times will tell all.
PS: Anyone calling for watering on ground that is 7.3 and described as Good, Good to Firm in places in the first week of July should be sharing a cell with Ghislaine Maxwell (ideal opportunity for her to be introduced to the joys of Timeform ratings). There’s more chance of a runner slipping up on an overwatered bend than getting injured on that surface.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I think it’s 100 years this year that the Aga Khan operation has been involved in European horse racing so it’s written in my head that this Vadeni will prove to be one of the very best they have produced.
I’ll just keep it simple and go on face value. We have a group 1 winner last time who romped home, hacked up, scooted clear and wowed the racing public.
The others didn’t.Haven’t made my mind up yet, but two things occur to me.
1. If Vadeni wasn’t French I think he’d most probably be a shade of odds on because he was every bit as impressive at Chantilly as Desert Crown was on Epsom Downs and in terms of what he beat I don’t think there is much between Hoo Ya Mal and El Bodegon.
2. I could be way off here (it’s been known!) but I really, REALLY, don’t fancy Native Trail. For me, big imposing sort though he is, he’s lost his precocious juvenile dominance, he was beaten fair and square in what I think was a bang average 2,000 Guineas, he scrambled home in the worst Irish 2,000 Guineas in living memory in which second, third and fourth got mullered next time out, and I think he’s a suspect stayer – there’s a difference between being one paced and staying on and he’s by Oasis Dream and how many middle distance stayers has said sprinter produced apart from Midday?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Take away Vadeni’s Prix du Jockey Club and his overall record is nothing spectacular at all. Comes across to me like one of those horses that’ll never string two races together in succession.
A ‘flash-in-the-pan’ type.
Vadeni’s record is of almost constant progression. Progress that took him to a brilliant Group 1 performance last time out. Only disappointing run came when probably unfit on reappearance after a 200 day break.
Value Is EverythingShould be used to it by now but am getting fed up with Mr Chezza making out I’ve said something I haven’t.
Value Is EverythingNone of the Eclipse runners will be suited by firm ground, therefore if Andrew Cooper needs to water to keep it from going firm, I see no reason not to.
Nobody is in favour of over-watering.
Nobody is in favour of having a slippery surface.Value Is EverythingAgree all you say about Oasis Dream Ian and that is a worry for Native Trail, maybe he’d be better heading for the July Cup. However, I’m relying on him having inherited genes from his Damsire Quest For Fame and his Greatdam sire Rainbow Quest, that will be on his side on Saturday and Charlie Appleby posted a promising update on YouTube this week.
Note: Native Trail’s dam Needleleaf is proving herself a top broodmare having produced a top selling Kingman filly and now in foal to Siyouni.
Jac Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...All the Eclipse runners are in the Timeform top 100, so we know their Timeform ratings.
131 Mishriff
126p Bay Bridge
125p Vadeni
125 Native Trail
124 Alenquer
123 Lord NorthWith Mishriff it’s all about whether he’s fully fit after a poor showing last time out on dirt in Meydan and needing this race last year after the same break. I’d imagine the International is Mishriff’s standout performance.
With Bay Bridge it’s all about if he’ll be as effective on good-firm and whether he’ll get a strong enough pace.
So with his potential I can see why Vadeni is favourite, but 7/4? Less in places! Has a bit of a doubt about the ground, the time he put up in the French Derby suggests it was more like Good than the official “Soft”. I’ve backed him antepost for the Arc but he’s too short for me here, especially in what might turn out to be a tactical affair.
Should Lord North be around 27/1 on the exchange when he’s only 3 lbs short of the second top rated? Didn’t finish far behind Alenquer in Ireland and travelled better than him for a long way.
Alenquer himself is imo the most likely pace setter and therefore most likely to get a positional advantage.
Native Trail’s price looks particularly short to me for all the reasons I’ve previously given. Might even lay him if getting any shorter.
Seems to me around 8/1 makes it worth chancing Mishriff’s fitness.
Have also now backed Alenquer @ 9.5/1.
Am going to see if the race times tomorrow make me lay my Bay Bridge bet back. Especially now there’s less pace in the race. Suspect I’ll lessen him ton a saver.Value Is Everything
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