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Diamond Harry, Walkon, and Punchestowns, three short-priced ‘good things’ on today’s Cheltenham card – or will the bookies be rubbing their hands with glee after these races?
Hello,
Sorry Scally, I believe ERNST BLOFELD will be saying:
"…No, Diamond Harry, I expect you to Lose…."
14/1 for the pussy stroker is an excellent price…
regards,
doyley
There seems to be some opposition today against Punchestowns.
Drifting in the betting slightly and Big Bucks in being backed against him.
Don’t you mean drift in the butter
Excluding AP I’ve had my biggest bet of the season so far on Punchestowns.
My reason is very simple..he’ll win
Support for PN’s horse is holding his price up and at first glance his defeat of Don’t Push It looks very good. Then again so does Fair Along’s who is probably atrracting some money as well.
In reality what we had is 3 failed chasers running back over hurdles and that rarely works when you come up against the best.
Punchestowns 11/10 looks a great bet
We have four of the front five in the betting for the World Hurdle here. The general bookmaker prices for that market are:
2.1 Punchestowns, 3/1 Kasbah Bliss, 10/1 Blazing Bailey, 12/1 Big Bucks, 14/1 Fair Along.
Adjust those prices for the absence of Kasbah Bliss and you get approx
6/5 Punchestowns, 15/2 Blazing Bailey, 9 Big Bucks, 10 Fair Along
So if Punchestowns is a good bet at 11/10 today with the 8lb penalty, he’s a very good bet at 2/1 for the level weights race.
PN is very bullish about Big Bucks in his RP column and I think it should be close and likely to be tactical between the pair, as neither will want to be in front too son – Walsh because Big Bucks idles and hangs in front, Geraghty because he won’t want to give Walsh a lead for the same reasons.
Fascinating race in prospect.
I think he’s too short today. For me he still has a bit to prove at the trip on this ground. I’ve laid him for the World Hurdle as I don’t think he’ll be much shorter on the day even if he wins this.
Punchestowns and Diamond Harry are two of the most exciting horses I’ve seen in quite some time, I won’t be opposing those two (though hype seems to have removed the value from them).
However in the Finesse, the test of stamina today will suit Reve de Sivola (assuming of course there’s a decent pace on). At the prices, I’ll probably take him to reverse the Chepstow form with Walkon given a 7-lb pull at the weights.
We have four of the front five in the betting for the World Hurdle here. The general bookmaker prices for that market are:
2.1 Punchestowns, 3/1 Kasbah Bliss, 10/1 Blazing Bailey, 12/1 Big Bucks, 14/1 Fair Along.
Adjust those prices for the absence of Kasbah Bliss and you get approx
6/5 Punchestowns, 15/2 Blazing Bailey, 9 Big Bucks, 10 Fair Along
So if Punchestowns is a good bet at 11/10 today with the 8lb penalty, he’s a very good bet at 2/1 for the level weights race.
PN is very bullish about Big Bucks in his RP column and I think it should be close and likely to be tactical between the pair, as neither will want to be in front too son – Walsh because Big Bucks idles and hangs in front, Geraghty because he won’t want to give Walsh a lead for the same reasons.
Fascinating race in prospect.
I think you may have summed it up well but I don’t know how big a factor that will be.
Lough Derg looks to be the only confirmed front runner in the race. Taking it he run’s to form and isn’t good enough he maybe allowed to stay in front that bit longer, to give the big two a lead. I would be very hopeful if it happens that way Punchestown will find a lot more when asked than Big Bucks IMO
However at Ascot it was Blazing Baileys who was first to take it off Lough Derg 3 out. Fair Along also likes to take it up from 2 or 3 out so he could also be challenging fairly early……..then it could come down to who stays best up the hill and tactics will be thrown out the window. That 8lbs could then come more into play.
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I’ve backed Pemberton against Walkon, so obviously haven’t included him in the ‘banker’ treble, but Lightning Strike looks a suitable replacement in the first at Doncaster (especially as Palomar doesn’t run).
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Wouldn’t have Punchestowns at twice the price myself.
He had his Cheltenham race won well before it became a stamina test and, as I recall, there was some doubt about his staying 3m prior to his Long Walk win.
In that race, run at only a fair pace on good ground, he again had the race won some way from home, and consequently it was nothing like the stamina test he faces today, and against horse properly proven in the circumstances.
I don’t lay horses, but he’d be high on my list if I did..Given the ground conditions, I wouldn’t be surprised to see upsets in at least 2 out of the 3 races – kicking off with Bensalem in the first.
Hello mate, what system are you using? DIAMOND HARRY and WALKON are my selections for today
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Are they the wonder bets your £10 subscription is throwing up, Alistair?
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