Early season optimism and fools

[Steeplechasing]

Both apply to me, and that can be the only reason I butt in here to make my first post in this thread (copied from my blog). I promise to slip away quietly after the results come in . . .

There’s nothing I’d bet my house on, but if you’re looking for some small bets to watch TV racing, you could do worse than these:

2.05 Wetherby

Last Supper 16/1 with Hills, who are out on their own at this price. Last Supper won her only race over hurdles (and the sole victory of her career) last time by 33L at Perth in a decent time. The form might be unreliable, but to my mind, it’s not 16/1 unreliable, so worth taking a chance she might shock ‘em all again.

3.15 Wetherby

Hills are once again our generous hosts offering 10/1 Medermit. The reason I like betting these with Hills (nobody sponsors this blog or pays me anything), is that if you bet through their mobile app, or with them through the Racing Post app, they refund your cash as a free bet up to £25 if your selection is 2nd (check the Ts&Cs as they have field limit sizes etc – The large print giveth, and the small print taketh away).

Medermit promised much when younger, then got an injury. He was out for a couple of years and the fact that he appears so early in the season signifies he’s in good heart. At anywhere near his best, he’d be much shorter than 10/1 and is worth chancing.

Ascot 3.00

Hills offer only 16s Verano in this, so I must desert them for Betvictor, who go 25/1. Worth a small EW bet. even though. Held up in his first 2 runs (4th and 3rd), he made all last time at Ffos Las and won by 9 lengths. He’s 7lbs out of the handicap, but his claimer nullifies that (if you take a positive view of claimers!). This is tougher than Ffos Las, but I don’t think it’s 25/1 tougher.

3.35 Gevrey Chambertin will, I suspect, enjoy this big field more than the favourite Le Bec will, and is worth a bet at 9s, again with Hills, through the app if possible.

Down Royal 2.30

Already beginning to look like the usual suspects in Ireland with First Lieutenant and his troops. But the new girl on the block is Henderson’s mare Ma Filleule, and I’d advise taking the 7/2 again through the Hills app. She ran a fine race when second to Holywell at the festival then skated up at Aintree. I’m not a stats man, but I don’t think Mr Henderson is prone to trying his promising horses too highly too soon and I think he must be sending her over with a fair degree of confidence. She has the best speed figure in the field, and gets half a stone from the others (which, on official ratings makes her, in theory, the best horse in the race).

I’m not a layer. If I were, I might lay At Fishers Cross at Wetherby. He has the form to win it, but perhaps not the physiology. He was painful to watch even galloping, never mind jumping, on his seasonal debut last year. It seemed obvious he was hurting, and the trainer later admitted he’d suffered arthritic problems for some time. I’m not quite sure how you overcome something like that, so I wouldn’t be betting at odds on with any confidence at all. If he jumps the first two cleanly and with enthusiasm, best keep your cash in your wallet. If he looks uncomfortable over the early hurdles, I might change my habits and lay him.

Good luck

[The Young Fella]

Did you see At Fishers Cross’s Nekknomination video, Joe?

He necked a jar of aloe vera juice, which is apparently Rebecca Curtis’ secret weapon against the horse’s arthritic limbs. I’m with you on Verano too. It’s always a big plus when a jockey will take 7lbs away from bottom weight like that.

I’ve had a go at Black Thunder at a big price in the 3.35. He’ll be fit, stays all day and comfortably holds Le Bec at the weights on known form. Gevrey Chambertin is even better treated but seems to have the breathing problems that his brother Grands Crus did. He could rout them if the body holds together though.

[Steeplechasing]

I felt for that poor horse at Newbury last season, and was surprised Geraghty didn’t pull him up. I hope she has got him back to his best, because he has some engine.

I like Le Bec, but he strikes me as a big lumbering type who needs plenty room around him. He might need to make it which I doubt they’ll try.

Good luck with Black Thunder

[Steeplechasing]

I thought BT was going to do it for you, TYF. Winner just too brave. Hope you had EW

[The Young Fella]

Just a bit of a saver e/w, Joe – chuffed to get such a run for my money even so. Like you say, the bravest horse probably won as Black Thunder didn’t seem to want it when he came alongside.

Le Bec finished lame apparently. Fingers crossed he’s ok.

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