- This topic has 36 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 11 months ago by
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I’ll offer ANYBODY the same terms offered to McCririck ( who frequently moans about ew markets),
come and stand behind my pitch and I will hedge every place part of the bets I take at same odds, no picking and choosing the lot.
dont start on about win odds %’s
AP says seperate records win & place
One of my favourite forms of betting is smashing into a 5/2 or 9/4 shot e/w. 1/5 the odds in an 8 horse race.
Before anyone laughs at me, I can guarantee you the bookmakers absolutely hate this bet, yet they love your win bets.
The entire Isiris tipping orginisation is built on backing these 9/4 or 5/2 shots E/W in races where only 2 horses realistically stand a chance of winning.
You can get the majority of the bets to finish in the first 3, for a £100 e/w on a 5/2 shot that gets placed it returns £150.00 so you recoup 75% of your total stake, if you are backing in races that you believe only 2 horses stand a realistic chance then you will be hitting a good percentage of winners as well. So you are landing winners and even when you place your still getting 75% of your stake back.
I bet if I started hitting Barry Dennis with these bets, it would not take long for him to ban me.
Thats a really good bet. Has an outstanding chance of being in the first 3 and a good chance of winning.
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According to Adrian Massey’s figures, the win incidence of horses at shorter than 1/2 is 75%, placed 87.5%. That alone indicates that most of the time one takes these horses on EW they are betting for only 1 or 2 places.
Using those figures for today’s 3.30N. RP forecast:
2/7 Noland, 5/1 My Petra, 12/1 Psychomodo, 25/1 Kervriou, 33/1 Keepthedreamalive.£100 ew any of the 4 ‘rags’ effectively means you’re betting the following place odds in 7 races out of 8:
1/2 My Petra, 6/5 Psychomodo. 5/2 Kerviou, 0/30 Keepthedreamalive,
which amounts to an over-round of 162% .
For the life of me, I can’t see where there’s any value in betting against those type of odds?- Total Posts 17716
According to Adrian Massey’s figures, the win incidence of horses at shorter than 1/2 is 75%, placed 87.5%. That alone indicates that most of the time one takes these horses on EW they are betting for only 1 or 2 places.
reet, sorry to be dim, but why does this mean most are in 7 runners or less races?
KCC
They’re not.
It just indicates that 1 of the places is a lock for the fav, leaving only 1 or 2 places for the others.- Total Posts 17716
What are the stats for blind laying 2s + on shots out of interest? Would it yield a profit or loss over time?
Can’t answer that properly as the table is unavailable at the mo, but given the narrow margins, commissions, and that you’d have to lay at over the price, it would probably be just another route to the poor house?
9% of the races a 1/2 chance does.nt finish in the first 3,
although punters dont normally bet ew odds on it still represents a % of place book
You rarely have to lay a 1/2 shot at over the odds. These short priced favourites tend to mirror the bookmakers prices. The Betfair 20% better odds line really applies to the bigger priced horses.
Zoso, as per another thread I have taken the plunge on Noland, £50 E/W at 7/2 for the Arkle in case the price contracts further if he scoots in today.
Although as said I like backing 7/2 shots ew, I do feel ante-post bets are a different proposition. With the possibility of losing tne stake if it does not run, risking the place part for just 1/4 or 1/5 the odds does not look value to me. Especially when the horse has had injury problems recently.
There was one exception, Exotic Dancer in the King George. I could not see ED finishing out of the first 3, could see the race cutting up and was 6/1. I know he went out to a bigger price at one point but that was due to the stable being in such poor form, something impossible to allow for.
Value Is EverythingI personally bet win only the majority of the time. There are however exceptions.
In a race like the Tote Gold Trophy which is renowned for gambles I advice always bet EW……..no matter how hot you think your info is pr how good the horse is there always more than one horse laid out for the race and is gambled on.
AP for Cheltenham like Noland I bet at 16/1 EW. At the time whan I bet him I had no idea what else would be coming out the woodwork…..I just feel it’s the sensible thing to do.
at the end of the day it’s down to individual choice……..you are told a horse is a real good thing in a bad race, you have the money and he’s 6/1 why not……if you target is to win 6/7000 quid and have plenty dosh 1000 ew would be the sensible thing to do……..he get’s beat a short head you have covered your ass……if the info is sound the bookie in a case like that has very little chance of winning……….personally I would just have 2 grand win on him but many punters would use the safety net.
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just to clarify my other question, are you saying the backing of rags E/W against 2s+ on shots is not to be recommended?
What I’m saying is, given the frequency that long odds-on shots win/place. backing rags EW in these races isn’t nearly as lucrative as some suppose.
Imo, of course.The more dangers there are the less likely it is you should be betting each-way, not the other way around.
Don’t mean to be dissing you but I’d say backing jollies in chases ante post is one of the worst times to bet each-way there is. What’s the price of Noland turning up in the named race and jumping around? Divide 4.5 and 1.875 by this number and see what you’re getting respectively. The horse would have to be a total thief to justify doing each-way.
Thats a really good bet. Has an outstanding chance of being in the first 3 and a good chance of winning.
Totally disagree that 7/2 is value for any horse in an open Championship race 3 weeks beforehand when he still has to run his prep. Even if he wins today, I’d expect him to be at least that on the day. add in the fact that he’s coming back from injury and it’s a terrible price.
The Paul Nicholls factor. Will hack up today without any effort and will probably start shorter.
I dont back Antepost but I would say that horse has a great chance of being first 3. (Watch him get beat today now I have said that).
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