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Juddmonte International 2006

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Juddmonte International 2006

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 27 total)
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  • #2903
    SirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1208

    Just looking at tomorrows race although I havent seen final declarations.  I was thinking that given the ease in the ground which will suit 3 or 4 of these older horses and given the reported poor record of 3 year olds here and given that the Irish Derby may very well have been a poor enough event …arent current odds of 11/10 skimpy enough??  Or do people here see him as a certainty

    SHL

    #75671
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    I would be getting worried if the ground eased any further….Cherry Mix could be dangerous on an easy lead.

    #75672
    Salselon
    Member
    • Total Posts 883

    His run in the Irish Derby suggested to me he needed more than 1m2.

    (Edited by Salselon at 11:49 am on Aug. 21, 2006)

    #75673
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Trackside<br> Can’t honestly see how an ew bet on Notnowcato can be considered good value at 11/2; if he places 2nd or 3rd, you are on at 1/20?<br> His last run probably flatters him too, with Blue Monday and the non-staying Aussie Rules so close in behind.<br> Dylan Thomas looks the most likely winner, if for no other reason than he easily beat some decent horses lto; maybe only 3yo’s, but premier league 3yo, while the older horses in this race are pure 2nd division.<br> Don’t see any problem with the trip either, though the ground may turn out to be a bog, which would be a worry.

    #75674
    SirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1208

    Dont know about Notnowcato, I think the market seems to think there is not alot between the rest of them and in softish ground I  would take Blue Monday to be in front of Notnowcato. I just think that perhaps Dylan is a little too short.  I dont suppose we know yet …which is unusual …….just how the 3 year olds are shaping up compared to the older horses.  Perhaps thats why ive been feeling a bit let down by this flat season so far.

    SHL

    #75675
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    DT has shown that bit of star quality which has been absent from the other runners, who are a so so bunch.

    York is an odd course, so theres always the suspicion that anything can happen, but cant see past the fav

    #75676
    The Market Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 396

    Dylan Thomas has the best form in the race, is a worthy favourite and has a great chance.

    However York is a funny course, it’s two furlongs below his best trip and the ground is probably a bit softer than the horse would ideally want it.

    Do I think Dylan Thomas will win? Probably.<br>Do I think Dylan Thomas is worth a bet? No way.

    #75677
    Jim JTS
    Member
    • Total Posts 841

    Forget about having to bet on the race, Dylan Thomas is the best horse in the race and also has the best form on show, there’s no certainties in racing but all being well he shouldn’t break sweat…

    If you must have a bet then I suggest Maraahel to follow him home in the forecast ;)

    #75678
    Meshaheer
    Member
    • Total Posts 486

    Shoddy renewal for what is one of my favourite races, especially considering this year I’ll actually be seeing it in the flesh!

    I can’t see past Dylan Thomas formwise but stranger things have happened and I’m intrigued as to how they’re going to play things with Cherry Mix, although to be honest I wouldn’t have thought he’d be good enough to beat him. The same goes for Maraahel. He’s a right dodgepot.

    #75679
    Grimes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1891

    I expect those two to fight it out – Cherry Mix and Maraahel. They’re the two stars on the book, timewise, and I’m hoping they’re going to turn it on. I’m hoping CM ‘s going to run them into the ground.

    Perhaps I’ll be terribly wrong, but CM looks the star bet of the week to me.

    (Edited by Grimes at 10:05 pm on Aug. 21, 2006)

    #75680
    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1198

    Would be desperately disappointing if DT couldn’t beat CM over 10f.

    #75681
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Neither Blue Monday or Notnowcato were able to show their best in the Eclipse last time and I expect them both to put up a bold show tomorrow.

    #75682
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    11/10 is short, for sure.  But in that company, I couldn’t have made DT bigger than 6/4.  Be prepared to see the layers cautiously take him on at the current odds.<br>To be on the safe side, i’d make DT a back at 2.4 or higher.

    #75683
    Sailing Shoes
    Member
    • Total Posts 368

    I’d be interested to know RD, at which he point he would become a lay – if he’s a back at 2.4 or higher..

    Would you lay him at under 2.0?<br>Would you not lay him at all?

    #75684
    Racing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1364

    SS – I’d be looking to trade, but I wouldn’t be straight laying as I think DT will win.  However, I am confident that he will go off at bigger than 11/10.  If I could lay at 2.1 or less, and back at >2.4 for a free bet, i’d be happy.<br>I see negatives in the horse, but I also see negatives in the competition.  That is why I think 11/8-6/4 is about the right price.

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