- This topic has 26 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 2 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Just looking at tomorrows race although I havent seen final declarations. I was thinking that given the ease in the ground which will suit 3 or 4 of these older horses and given the reported poor record of 3 year olds here and given that the Irish Derby may very well have been a poor enough event …arent current odds of 11/10 skimpy enough?? Or do people here see him as a certainty
SHL
I would be getting worried if the ground eased any further….Cherry Mix could be dangerous on an easy lead.
His run in the Irish Derby suggested to me he needed more than 1m2.
(Edited by Salselon at 11:49 am on Aug. 21, 2006)
- Total Posts 17716
Trackside<br> Can’t honestly see how an ew bet on Notnowcato can be considered good value at 11/2; if he places 2nd or 3rd, you are on at 1/20?<br> His last run probably flatters him too, with Blue Monday and the non-staying Aussie Rules so close in behind.<br> Dylan Thomas looks the most likely winner, if for no other reason than he easily beat some decent horses lto; maybe only 3yo’s, but premier league 3yo, while the older horses in this race are pure 2nd division.<br> Don’t see any problem with the trip either, though the ground may turn out to be a bog, which would be a worry.
Dont know about Notnowcato, I think the market seems to think there is not alot between the rest of them and in softish ground I would take Blue Monday to be in front of Notnowcato. I just think that perhaps Dylan is a little too short. I dont suppose we know yet …which is unusual …….just how the 3 year olds are shaping up compared to the older horses. Perhaps thats why ive been feeling a bit let down by this flat season so far.
SHL
DT has shown that bit of star quality which has been absent from the other runners, who are a so so bunch.
York is an odd course, so theres always the suspicion that anything can happen, but cant see past the fav
Dylan Thomas has the best form in the race, is a worthy favourite and has a great chance.
However York is a funny course, it’s two furlongs below his best trip and the ground is probably a bit softer than the horse would ideally want it.
Do I think Dylan Thomas will win? Probably.<br>Do I think Dylan Thomas is worth a bet? No way.
Forget about having to bet on the race, Dylan Thomas is the best horse in the race and also has the best form on show, there’s no certainties in racing but all being well he shouldn’t break sweat…
If you must have a bet then I suggest Maraahel to follow him home in the forecast ;)
Shoddy renewal for what is one of my favourite races, especially considering this year I’ll actually be seeing it in the flesh!
I can’t see past Dylan Thomas formwise but stranger things have happened and I’m intrigued as to how they’re going to play things with Cherry Mix, although to be honest I wouldn’t have thought he’d be good enough to beat him. The same goes for Maraahel. He’s a right dodgepot.
I expect those two to fight it out – Cherry Mix and Maraahel. They’re the two stars on the book, timewise, and I’m hoping they’re going to turn it on. I’m hoping CM ‘s going to run them into the ground.
Perhaps I’ll be terribly wrong, but CM looks the star bet of the week to me.
(Edited by Grimes at 10:05 pm on Aug. 21, 2006)
Neither Blue Monday or Notnowcato were able to show their best in the Eclipse last time and I expect them both to put up a bold show tomorrow.
11/10 is short, for sure. But in that company, I couldn’t have made DT bigger than 6/4. Be prepared to see the layers cautiously take him on at the current odds.<br>To be on the safe side, i’d make DT a back at 2.4 or higher.
I’d be interested to know RD, at which he point he would become a lay – if he’s a back at 2.4 or higher..
Would you lay him at under 2.0?<br>Would you not lay him at all?
SS – I’d be looking to trade, but I wouldn’t be straight laying as I think DT will win. However, I am confident that he will go off at bigger than 11/10. If I could lay at 2.1 or less, and back at >2.4 for a free bet, i’d be happy.<br>I see negatives in the horse, but I also see negatives in the competition. That is why I think 11/8-6/4 is about the right price.
DT looks too short for me at 2.00 on BF at the moment. I prefer Blue Monday at the prices. He still seems to be improving even as a 5yo. Last 4 runs were pretty decent enough and he looks the bet at 12.0.
On another point, I see the RP results have Notnowcato being beaten 1.5 lengths in the Eclipse in 2nd place while Blue Monday only beaten 1 length into 3rd place:o ! I worry about them sometimes!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.