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(2:25) 338E Durkan New Homes Novice S’chase
(Grade 1) €78,000.00 ( 2m 1f – 4yo+ )
1 Baltiman (MissSAFinn) – TJDoyle 11,12
2 Cooldine (WPMullins) – PTownend 11,12
3 Coolpotts (JABerry) – RMMoran 11,12
4 Fantoche (BRZ) (MrsJHarrington) – TPTreacy 11,12
5 Follow The Plan(137) (OMcKiernan) – JLCullen 11,12
6 Forpadydeplasterer (TCooper) – PWFlood 11,12
7 Made In Taipan (TMullins) – DNRussell 11,12
8 Pesoto (FR) (EJO’Grady) – AndrewJMcNamara(T) 11,12
9 Tatenen (FR) (PFNicholls (in GB)) – SThomas 11,01Looks a cracking novice chase on paper. Tatenen will be a warm order especially given the amount of weight he’s getting. He has looked visually very impressive in his two chases but you have to question what he’s beaten so far. The fact that Straw Bear goes back over hurdles on Friday says a lot. He’s unlikely to get it his own way up front with Forpadydeplasterer, Made In Taipan, Cooldine and Baltiman all likely to be ridden prominently.
Davy has gone for Made In Taipan over Forpadydeplasterer which is interesting. The one I fancy though is Cooldine. This is unlikely to be his trip in the long term but this race always develops into a bit of a slog – Skys The Limit and Missed That both winners over the past few years. He’ll stay all day and both Willie Mullins and Paul Townend are in cracking form.
If it’s bottomless at Leopardstown then I can’t see past Cooldine. Think Tatanen is the class 2 miler in the race but also feel the extra weight allowance he’ll be getting for being a 4yo (more than he would in the UK) has been a major decision in regard to him running here rather than somewhere in the UK ie. the Emblem Chase or another conditions race.
Tatenens got to be up there while getting this much weight, surely?
The rival for me is Forpadydeplasterer. Is it just me or did his trainer state that a shorter trip than last time out (Last outing over 2m4f) would be perfect?
If Tatenen comes up unbackable I’ll be on Forpady. 11lbs is a hell of a lot of weight to give away to the Arkle antepost favourite though.
If Made in Taipan is the forecast each-way price that’s the bet. The ground is likely to be better than usual for Lep as the week has been quite dry and the forecast is good. With Straw Bear jumping like a ewe with footrot Tatanen only had a school around the last day- he’ll know he’s been in a race against these!
Agree on Made In Taipan, I havent forgotten seeing franchoek run tatenen into the ground last season and I suspect he could be outstayed regardless of the weight, Made In Tapian and to a lesser extent Forpady would lok the sorts to possibly prevail in a testing race. Nicholls record in ireland hasnt been too bad though, but it is possible that this is just too good an opportunity to miss, because of the weights, and the opposition may be underestimated.
You have to give credit where credit is due and Paul Nichols has balls of steel sending Tetenen here.
Quite frankly apart from looking good he has beat nothing and I have emphasised my doubts that he’s an Arkle horse…..If he wins this I eat my words.
I have a soft spot for Paddy and I think he’s a horse with a future.
Would love to see him win this but couldn’t bet anything with confidence and certainly wouldn’t be betting PN’s at a short price against this lot.
His "balls of steel" might have something to do with him getting 11lbs as a 4 year-old in Ireland, something that will surely have to change given the precocious nature of the French horses these days. If he doesn’t win this the Arkle is a pipedream.
I’d say Tatenen could be beaten for stamina on soft ground, but still be in the Arkle picture if the pace wasnt as searching, however his price of 3/1 is going to look a shade ridiculous, which IMO it already does a bit, as good as he looks I dont think he’s shown enough to be that price.
As a hurdler, he got to within a couple of lengths of Franchoek at Chepstow, but when Franchoek then raised the tempo at cheltenham, Tatenen was beaten for much more than the weight he is recieving in this race against a similar level of horse. IMO Tatenen is a really decent 2 mile Chasing prospect but he wouldnt be nailed on to get home if this race turns into a test.
Both Forpady and Made in Taipan, both handle soft ground, both have shown they have the speed for 2 miles and the stamina for 2.5 miles. It is entirely possible that they could do a Tamarinbleu/Twist Magic thing here, and just run him out of it.
Rght theory, wrong horse, just how the bookies can justify Tatenen being best priced 5-1 after that, with the winner at at 12-1, having just given him 11 lbs is beyond me. Follow The Plan at 12-1 looks a very good bet for the arkle as everything stands. Actually thought he looked a bit ring rusty there and also looked like the hill at cheltenham might bring more from him.
Made In Taipan’s chance was gone there after a shocking jump at the first.
Can’t believe Tatenen is still as short as 5/2 in a place for the Arkle after that performance. I wanted to be against him today because it was the first time he was taking on hardened novices and he was unlikely to have things his own way out in front. However, I’m sure plenty of people would have expected him to oblige toady given Nicholls’ bullishness about his chances and the fact he was receiving 11lbs from the older horses.
Follow The Plan was very game but I’m not sure if he’ll be the best of the Irish novices over two miles come the end of the season. Even McKiernan himself said, when interviewed by Tracy Piggott on RTÉ, that he thought he’d be placed at best. I just can’t see Tatenen winning the Arkle on the back of that performance. Am I right in thinking he would only be in receipt of 5lbs come the Arkle?
The more I look at the Arkle market, the more I think Forpadydeplasterer is a very decent bet. A furiously run two miles at Cheltenham will be right up his street. He’s not short of gears as he proved last year and he’ll be staying on up the hill when others have cried enough. It’s a pity we didn’t see him today but I understand it was only a stone bruise and hopefully we’ll be seeing him in the Bailey’s Arkle back at Leopardstown.
Cooldine was my own selection today and I thought he ran OK. He could have done with softer ground and a faster gallop over that trip to bring his stamina into play but Willie seemed happy enough with his run. He’ll have learned a lot and he will improve enormously for a step up in trip. It was only his second run over fences and he’ll be well able to hold his own when he goes over three miles.
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