Dumbfounded Down Under

[tontonan]

Hello

I am posting from Australia where you may be aware that we have been in the grip of an Equine Influenza outbreak that has been contained by locking down the race horses in the states of New South Wales and Queensland. There has been no racing in those states for the past couple of months but racing is expected to resume by the New Year.

As you may also be aware racing is conducted 12 months of the year in Australia. There is no off season. So when racing does resume punters in NSW and Queensland will face a unique situation where all the horses will be resuming at the same time.

Obviously in other places, such as the UK, you face this situation every year, so I thought I would ask your advice with regard to any particular strategies you may have for dealing with the start of the new season when the only form you have is from last season.

There are substantial differences in the racing cultures of the UK and Australia. In Australia we race our horses more and those horses better suited to longer journeys will have several runs over shorter courses in preparation for their preferred distance. This is only going to compound the punters problem in Australia as I would imagine the race clubs will program racecards full of five and six furlong races to restart their season.

I would also expect there will be a lot of public race trials before the racing proper begins particularly in Sydney where they have a ‘trialling culture’ (where as in Melbourne we don’t).

Do UK punters tend to watch rather than bet the early meetings of a new season (which is what I expect some will do in Australia when the racing resumes) ? Or do they jump straight in and put their faith in last season’s form ?

Thanks in advance

[robnorth]

A strategy I used in the 70s to reasonable effect was to concentrate on horse finishing close up in early season handicaps and finishing well. I made a decent profit from backing these next time out as long as they come out within a fortnight or so. There’s a fair chance that with a run behind them these runners will have a march on the handicapper, and their fitness is assured.

Much depends on the Australian system but I don’t see why the paln shouldn’t work.

Rob

[Sal]

I suppose one of the big differences is that we have the season break every year from the turf, so over time it becomes apparant which trainers are good for getting horses ready first time out and which horses would generally need the run.

The return from the EI outbreak will be a pretty unusual situation for trainers as well as punters, so I would advise proceeding with extreme caution at first when you don’t have any trials to work from.

[nitro]

Welcome to the forum Tontonan. In most cases I don’t bet horses who run for the first time after the winter break. I think it’s better to watch them and to find out in which condition they are before.

[carvillshill]

I think our forum member Mounty’s approach works well in this situation. Go back over the horse’s lifetime form and see which ones run well first up after a spell. Be a slave to day to day trainer form once racing resumes- some trainers will have their horses fully fit to try and clean up early on- if you can spot them early you’ll do well.I’d bet on one or two of the smaller trainers beating the big boys early on as they know that will be their best chance.

[tontonan]

Thanks for your replies.

It’s a very unusual situation for Australia, because when the lock down came into force those horses that were already in their racing stables had to stay there for the duration, and those in the paddock had to stay in the paddock.

Many trainers, once the lockdown restrictions relax will send those horses in the racing stables straight to the paddock. Some, but not all.

Trialling is about to begin again in Sydney and I will take your advice and pay attention to these. Also attention to horses with good first up records is especially important…if they have any.

The situation gets really tricky is with regard to young horses. An awful lot of young horses would have debuted by now. This year we have a glut of unraced horses. Australians race their horses early and regularly, but this year they haven’t been allowed to.

It will make for some interesting racing, but I am not sure I want ot bet on it.

[Author]

Posts