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Cape Blanco was terrific at York but has disappointed more than once since, couldn’t back him. I’ve been backing the Japanese horses at Dubai for years and today could be the day. Transcend is worth a look, too.
22/03/11
On Racing Post ratings today Twice Over is joint fifth, with another two within one pound, and yet another two fairly close as well. I know RP adjust their ratings for race day to accommodate “relevant timely factors” so that may change by Saturday.In today’s Racing Post, Twice Over’s rating has been raised 4 pounds, to go from joint fifth to joint top. I’m sure that gives him a much better chance!
Does anyone know the factors that the RP takes into account to change ratings on race day? Or is it just subjective judgements by their experts so that the RP can boast of having their “ratings” pointing to more winners, when they reckon a lower rated horses has a good chance because of other odd reasons?
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Al Quoz Sprint – JJ The Jet Plane from Sole Power
Godolphin Mile – Skysurfers
UAE Derby – Xin Xu Lin from Utley ( not impressed enough by those that ran during the carnival )
Golden Shaheen – Rocket Man ( Kinsale King/Euroears might give him trouble though )
Dubai Duty Free – Derbaas from Mendip
Sheema Classic – Dangerous Midge
World Cup – Cape Blanco
My two best roughies for the night are Golden Sword in the World Cup and Irish Flame in the Sheema Classic. Best of luck to anyone having a bet.
I am all about Gio Ponti – 12/1 with Corals – I thought it ran well last year after being given too much to do – I am not too worried about the lack of prep run. Got to fell sorry for Twice Over – The draw has a great chance of getting it beat.
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Paddy Power taking a big set against Twice Over here. Transcend should lead clearly but how closely will the rest follow? Could be a Kamikaze crossing from gate 9 here.
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A great result for the beleagured Japanese there. Inspired ride from Demuro which surely made all the difference.
Cape Blanco should have won that race. It was run perfectly to suit him apart from Transcend. Spencer blew it by waiting too late, should have gone too the front much earlier rather than go from still to driving in a split second. CB won the Irish Derby 1m4f at the Curragh. He should have been testing stamina. Instead Spencer though he would ‘pounce’ in the last 2 furlongs – idiot. I wasn’t a critic of Spencer until now, hee deserves to be criticised for that ride.
EDIT:
I shouldn’t just criticise Spencer but he was on a horse that can go from the front. Lots of other jockeys should have made that move in the back stretch butt their horses aren’t suited by prominent racing so that could have come into their reckoning when deciding to sit tight. Spencer had every opportunity to win that race with a horse that can bolt and win in Good to Soft.You’ve guessed by now I’m talking out of my pocket but thats something I
very
rarely do.
Tell me I’m wrong.
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Having looked at the race a dozen times now I am still inclined to believe it was bent, a tragic result for Racing.
With a Japanese 1-2 you’d already begin to think a little then you have to look at the race, a very stern gallop early on yet all the main protagonists are pulling (strange), the reluctance to bypass the Japanese horses 4f from home was evident, Gio Ponti’s ride was disgusting and everyone left it too late (Ironic really).
Why was Shiekh getting in the photographs with the winner? why was Tom Queally so quick to leave the building?
Could you imagine if Cape Blanco won? the plan ruined, would he be invited back again?
I didn’t have a bet in the race but it was a disturbing scene.
I think the riding of Cape Blanco was strange and i think would have won if Moore was on board.
If spencer had kept this possie just off the pacemaker and not let the other horse get up to 2nd he could have pushed up and kicked on. Horse seemed to hang a bit and wasn’t exactly straightforward.
A race that in recent years has been very uninspiring
Bit of a farce, particularly in the back straight.
They could have done with Midnight Chase in the field."Mr.Wilson" wrote: Having looked at the race a dozen times now I am still inclined to believe it was bent, a tragic result for Racing.
With a Japanese 1-2 you’d already begin to think a little then you have to look at the race, a very stern gallop early on yet all the main protagonists are pulling (strange), the reluctance to bypass the Japanese horses 4f from home was evident, Gio Ponti’s ride was disgusting and everyone left it too late (Ironic really).
Why was Shiekh getting in the photographs with the winner? why was Tom Queally so quick to leave the building?
Could you imagine if Cape Blanco won? the plan ruined, would he be invited back again?
I didn’t have a bet in the race but it was a disturbing scene.
Are you for real?!
Let’s get this straight: you’re saying you think every horse in that race bar the Japanese horses and Cape Blanco were stopped?!
Jaysus sometimes it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry!
The outsiders do well again but for his first ride of the season and in a early Group 1, I think Cape Blanco has run a nice race and can win big G1’s if he stays with AOB, sounded like he really wants to keep the horse.
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why was Tom Queally so quick to leave the building?
Probably because it wasn’t his finest hour.
A slow pace and a horse who certainly stays the trip but lacks a serious turn of foot…. near the back wasn’t the place to be. And before the draw gets used as an excuse, he had the chance to tuck in behind the leaders passing the post but allowed Poets Voice up his inside and then, incredibly, took a pull.
Queally has ridden some barnstorming races over the last couple of seasons but this wasn’t one of them. All jockeys make mistakes; let’s hope that he doesn’t mess up in this season’s classics.
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Gio Ponti is the winner on any other day, he was only hit once and looked around as he was cantering over them. Yes I backed it and it was an aweful finish by the rider.
Why would the Hay’s move the horse from Aidan O Brien??
Don’t tell me their thinking of sending it to someone like Janechapplehyam?
Puzzling statement by the trainer considering the sale was done a few weeks ago surely he would not be asking for the horse to stay at ballydoyle.
I think the breeders side have no interest in the horse as with Fame and Glory
Gio Ponti (11/1) and Victoire Pisa (12/1).
My wallet runneth over.
Tom Queally did nothing wrong. Poor lad, it’s like Midday all over again (likewise, he did nothing wrong there, either).
The draw and slow pace beat the Twice Over. The only horse drawn high was the eventual second, Transcend (9), and his jockey was quick to take advantage, taking his mount to the lead.
Queally treid to settle his horse and get a bit of cover, but was kept wide by Frankie (Poet’s Voice) on the first bend – it was an uphill struggle, thereafter.
Twice Over was no more than half a length behind eventual fifth, Gio Ponti, turning in, but just wasn’t good enough on the day. End of.
He’s never been the type to motor past his rivals at the end of a race, and that attribute was once again lacking at the highest level.
Gio Ponti was arguably unlucky. Had a lovely position early, but wouldn’t settle off the slow pace. Eventually came widest of the field and finished well.
Granted a fast pace, Gio Ponti is as good a ten furlong horse as anything in the world.
Japan are a major player on the world stage. Weren’t they responsible for the first two home in the Melbourne Cup back in 2006?
A great result also, given what their nation has endured recently. No fluke. No question marks – just two very astute horsemen riding two very good horses.
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A poor race, ruined by the slow early pace and the sprint for the last 3 furlongs, with the first 4 turning in advantaged enough to remain the first 4 as they passed the line. Seemingly, only one jockey had the sense to see the pace was wrong, and he deservedly won the race with his mid-race move.
Great result for the Japanese, but as a form guide going forward, probably not worth a hatful of crabs.
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