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1 Kinsale King
2 Dim Sum
3 Charlie’s Moment
4 Force Freeze
5 Dynamic Blitz
6 Sunny King
7 Euroears
8 Escape Route
9 Rocket Man
10 Green BirdiePace will very probably be quite fast. Euroears needs to lead, while Kinsale King, Rocket Man (from his wide draw of 9) and Charlie’s Moment can all lead but have taken a sit before as well. Force Freeze usually races prominently as well.
Thoughts from a HK form perspective: Rocket Man the one to beat, although Kinsale King (kept RM in a pocket) and Green Birdie (on a wet track) have both turned him over.Dim Sum:
Trainer now saying that he is a bit tentative on the surface. Held Sacred Kingdom (slowing down but still a good guide) last race, so close enough to Rocket Man on turf form. Should sit midfield or slightly better. Trainer thinks he’s a better horse than Dynamic Blitz.
Sunny King:
7f horse in the form of his life by the same trainer. The stable second string but will run on strongly if they go very hard. Slight class query. Will be dropped out the back.
The trainer believes his two should at least run up to One World, a clear 3rd last year.
Green Birdie:
Supposed to go to Japan but rerouted here. Back at his best and similar turf form to Dim Sum. Tapeta query but handles all turf conditions which encourages the trainer. Will sit worse than midfield but nice turn of foot.
Dynamic Blitz:
HK’s best All-Weather horse, trained by trainer of Sacred Kingdom and Ultra Fantasy. Great win C&D in good time; the form has worked out well. Tough to compare his form to the turf horses. Midfield or slightly better.The pace should bring the HK horses into it quite well. I’d have Kinsale King only slightly ahead of Dynamic Blitz, with Dim Sum and Green Birdie further behind only because of the Tapeta query. Sunny King close behind Dim Sum and the Birdie after his trainer’s recent comments. Not sure what to do with Euroears.
A rather strange race this – $10m prize money and yet it doesn’t seem to quite attract the best of the best. The artificial surface and early season timing seem to put some off perhaps.
Anyway, it’s flat racing so it’s relatively easy (compared with Cheltenham) to work out the winner should be Twice Over. He has the joint highest rating, has been prepared early and is already in form.
Perhaps Buena Vista with Ryan Moore aboard will get a place. Cape Blanco is rather inconsistent I recall from last season but appears to be the only significant danger.
I reckon T.O. should be 7/4 or lower rather than the freely available 9/4(3.35 on Betfair).
Twice Over rumoured to have bled after last race,climate for Cape Blanco off the plane,[forecast in high 90’s] first run on suface Thursday?..Best bet ‘Golden Sword’ e/w @12/1 IMO.
On International Classification ratings there are two better than Twice Over – Cape Blanco and Buena Vista with the mares’ 5 pound allowance. There are another four within four pounds, which a good draw can lessen significantly at Meydan.
On Racing Post ratings today Twice Over is joint fifth, with another two within one pound, and yet another two fairly close as well. I know RP adjust their ratings for race day to accommodate “relevant timely factors” so that may change by Saturday.
The general picture is that nine of the runners can be classed as realistic winners – the other five would be “upsets”.
On merit and overall form, there are so many so close together you wouldn’t have Twice Over at less than 5/1. His price is much shorter for one good reason and two not-so-good reasons. The good reason is the race on 3 March, the Al Maktoum Challenge Round Three over course and distance where he beat a really good field from a bad draw. One not-so-good reason is sentiment in the UK for (Sir) Henry Cecil. The other is that in the UK we have heard a lot about Twice Over and very little about the preparation of the other contenders, especially the Japanese and the Americans. If they, and Cape Blanco, have had a targetted preparation like Twice Over has had, then 9/4 is a very poor price, never mind the 7/4.
There are too many “ifs and buts” regarding the environment/weather, the course, and the surface about many of the leading contenders to justify having a bet. So, I shall just revert to sentimentalism and cheer on Twice Over at the top of my voice and hope to see a resounding victory for Sir Henry.
I really like Cape Blanco in this. He’s beaten Twice Over the last time they met, and I can’t see what would lead to TO reversing the form. He’s a little bit underrated, but 1m2f is his ideal trip, and 5s (still available with Hills, the last time I checked) looks like a decent price for him. Fingers Crossed!
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I still think T.O. should be the clear favourite as at least we know he likes the track. He is rated 125 versus 126 for CB and 121+5 for Buena Vista on BHA international ratings. So pretty close to equal top. I got the equal top from a quote in the RacingPost so maybe they adjusted his rating after his last run.
However, I have radically reduced my position in T.O. in the light of the useful discussion so far.
Does anyone know if there are draw stats available for Dubai?
How anyone can back Cape Blanco given his untested on the heat and the course is a bit sticky in my eyes. I shall be on Twice Over, and a saver on the De Kock pair of Musir and Golden Sword.
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I really like Cape Blanco in this. He’s beaten Twice Over the last time they met, and I can’t see what would lead to TO reversing the form. He’s a little bit underrated, but 1m2f is his ideal trip, and 5s (still available with Hills, the last time I checked) looks like a decent price for him. Fingers Crossed!
Twice Over was reportedly off-colour in the Irish Champion and RVW was ridden for place money on rain softened ground he wouldn’t have stayed on, (both subsequently confirmed by their respective trainers), and Cape Blanco made full use of his undoubted stamina to beat thin air.
In his 2 other races at the trip, Cape Blanco beat a Workforce who had slipped his bit, with the uber-modest Victor Delight within 4l, and was beaten out of sight in the Prix Du Jockey Club.
He’s overrated, rather than under, imo, and his chances of winning at 10f around Meydan’s sharp AW track are somewhere between slim and none.Anyway, it’s flat racing so it’s relatively easy (compared with Cheltenham) to work out the winner should be Twice Over. He has the joint highest rating, has been prepared early and is already in form.
You make it sound all too simple Kasp,should Twice Over prevail it will confirm the brilliance of Zenyatta and the shoulda,coulda wouldas of the great mare.Victory for King Henry playing away from home on the Sheikhs home ground would be sweet but i have a sneaky feeling this
Poets Voice
is going to be a tough nut to crack,it would have been a case of just turning up for the Duty Free as it was his for the taking but connections have always had a soft spot for this Grandson of the majestic Dubai Millenium and i have always thought this race was a long term plan.Just remember Kasp on a collateral form line through Rip Van Winkle,Poets Voice on his day is on a par with Twice Over,the fact that he is 5 times the price makes him appeal even the more,home advantage and i can see a strong case to take the 10/1.Of course this fellow has to settle early as he is notorious for running too free as he did in the Champion stakes,if Frankie keeps a tight hold of him and delivers him very late he will give Twice Over a run for his money!
The wide draw seems to have dented the chances of T.O. (12)and Buena Vista (13). Poet’s Voice is 10 and Cape Blanco 4.
I am still searching for draw stats to see how significant this issue is.
Twice Over came from stall 11 in his prep race, check out what connections have to say on http://www.thenational.ae
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Agree that Twice Over is too short, he’s priced on what UK punters will back, rather than any real superiority. Lacks a top class change of gear, imo, and likely to be found wanting against a better field than he usually faces.
Have my doubts about Poets Voice too, it looks impressive that he beat RVW, but I seriously doubt the latter ran his race, and Red Jazz and Beethoven finishing close up probably paints a truer picture.
Foreign form is often underrated, (particularly by RPR) andBuena Vista,
10/1, comes out just about the best in my book. Though untried on the surface, she’s never been unplaced in 14 races at the top level, on a variety of ground and at all kinds of distance. Probably would have won her last 3, too, had she not been given too much to do by C Soumillon latterly.
Her draw (13) shouldn’t be too much of a problem, as she’s clearly versatile, and won from worse (16 of 18) around a similar sized circuit in Tokyo, and with Ryan Moore replacing the Belgian (claimed for a De Kock entrant), she ought to be in the right place where it matters.- Total Posts 17716
Just found this elsewhere, which is encouraging for her abiliy to act on the surface:
Today’s best mover: BUENA VISTA. The pride of Japan worked 1,200 metres on the Tapeta with her traditional hood, and while the final time was relatively slow in 1:22.82, her finishing kick was off the charts. Jim Cornes, international stable coordinator and clocker caught the daughter of Special Week through 200-metre fraction of 15.66, 14.92, 15.10, 14.91 and when asked to quicken, responded with a sensational final 400 metres with 200 splits of 11.96 and an eye-popping 10.27. Buena Vista should handle this surface without a problem given her affinity to work over the track on Wednesday.
Is Soumillon contracted to ride for de Kock? I would have thought he would prefer to ride Buena Vista after the review he gave her in Japan. I’m sure there is a very strong relationship betwen them if not a written contract seeing as hes ridden all de Kocks horses in the desert.
I fancy giving the two de Kock horses and Gitano Hernando a shot. Monterosso is a favorite of mine – very likable horse – and Cape Blanco too but I can see them setting it up for Gitano Hernando from a nice draw with a strong pace.
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Yeah I like the Marco Botti horse too, Johnny Murtagh will have learnt a lot from riding it last time and 16/1 is too big. Twice Over still looks the one to beat though. Might be worth a forecast bet.
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Golden Sword looks a nice each-way to me. I think he keeps improving and would love to see the ex Ballydoyle horse add to his recent successes after being dumped by O’Brien and Co.
I’ll take two against JJ the Jetplane in the Al Quoz. Eddie Lynams Sole Power might be a little underpriced. He has to prove that he can repeat his Nunthorpe win but fast ground is to his liking and hes positioned right under the pace. The other is Ed Creightons filly third in the Nunthorpe. She carries relatively less than she did in the Nunthorpe and she is an each way option on the far side. It would be ideal if it came up very fast for her.
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