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I agree with Aidan. The Drinmore was very representative (probably only Cooldine apart), and featured some high-class performers.
The form should stand a fair bit of scrutiny, I reckon, and with Trafford Land already having shown he handles the track (and quicker ground), he certainly warrants being on the shortlist for the RSA Chase.
As far as the UK candidates are concerned only Ballyfitz, Breedsbreeze and The Market Man have put-up a comporable level of form, imo.
I totally disagree, if any of the horses I would have been interested in would have been Forpaddydeplasterer, he was beaten by Trafford Lad today, who I really don’t think will win the Sun Alliance. Siegemaster should have beaten TL at Punchestown but did his best to hit every fence, if his jumping improves I think he will reverse form. I don’t think the Drimore will produce a winner of the Sun Alliance, I do think the best Irish chances lie with Siegemaster, providing he gets his jumping together, Coodline and Fiveforthree.
The British jumpers I have been most impressed with are the Market Man, Ballyfitz and What a friend, who I think were more impressive than what was on show today.
The most impressive horse at Fairyhouse today was Tharawaat, who looked amazing in the parade ring and was even more impressive winning.
JohnJ.
I totally disagree, if any of the horses I would have been interested in would have been Forpaddydeplasterer, he was beaten by Trafford Lad today, who I really don’t think will win the Sun Alliance. Siegemaster should have beaten TL at Punchestown but did his best to hit every fence, if his jumping improves I think he will reverse form. I don’t think the Drimore will produce a winner of the Sun Alliance, I do think the best Irish chances lie with Siegemaster, providing he gets his jumping together, Coodline and Fiveforthree.
The British jumpers I have been most impressed with are the Market Man, Ballyfitz and What a friend, who I think were more impressive than what was on show today.
The most impressive horse at Fairyhouse today was Tharawaat, who looked amazing in the parade ring and was even more impressive winning.
JohnJ.
Given that Trafford Lad finished only 5 lengths off Fiveforthree in a Sun Alliance Hurdle, a race in which he blatently got outpaced in a slowly run event…I just do not see how you can be so sure about not giving him a prayer. Whats more he is looks sure to improve for a step up to three miles and is basically a sound jumper. Trafford Lad beat Forpaddytheplaster at Cheltenham and has done so today.
Siegemaster might well have beaten him at Punchestown (but he didnt and jumping is quite important in NH racing – who’s to say he will jump better the next day) but even allowing for that I think today’s Trafford Lad was considerably better than the one who beat Window Of Hope at Punchestown.
Like I said, I think Cooldine, Fiveforthree, Aran Concerto and even Tranquil Sea (who ran lifeless today) are major threats in the SunAlliance – maybe even more so than Trafford Lad but I am not going to dismiss him.
Aidan,
As you know you cannot equate hurdle to chasing form. I do agree with you that it may have been a stronger renewal of the Drinmore, however, in the last 10 years this race has yet to produce a winner of the Sun Alliance.
I did say IF Siegemaster did get his jumping together, he would reverse the form with Trafford Lad, thats my view.
One thing that struck me in he parade ring was the Size of Paddy, he is a very scopey looking individual, only other horse that seemed a good sized chasing type was Casey Jones. Maybe a stiff two miles at Cheltenham will suit Paddy.
I don’t think Tranquil Sea is a great jumper and he does need good ground IMO. Long way to Cheltenham at this stage, but I wouldn’t think I saw a Sun Alliance contender today.
JohnJ.
Tranquil Sea desperately disappointing- I thought passing the stands he had no chance as he never convinced with his fencing- Fairyhouse takes a bit more jumping that Cork I suppose but two more contrasting peformances you couldn’t see. I thought the winner was impressive especially as he confirmed he is left-handed. Bit early to be talking about Cheltenham (indeed if I could bet ante-post one one race as a bookie it would be the Sun Alliance Chase) but he’ll take high rank in the staying chasers as will the second.
With the heavy ground they raced on I think it would
be a bit rash to start writing horses off or making big
statements about what they might achieve.
It looks to me that the Irish have a good squad to work
with.
They will miss Glencove Marina but all of the chief
protaganists today have a future.
Tranquil Sea hated the ground and should not be written off.
Its still very early days.
Aran Concerto is without doubt the Irish novice I am most
looking forward to.
But we need to see more before even thinking about punting on the
Sun Allince or the Arkle.Carvills
Drop on the trip on the cards for the second rather than a step up. A moral for the Durkan Novices Chase on the 26th given his jumping, and the dearth of opposition there will be for that race.
Trafford Lad did that very nicely. It’ll take a right good horse to beat him over three miles. I think personally that he’ll come into his own over that trip but I also like Cooldine a lot. The Sun Alliance is a long way away but I think those two will be bang there come March if everything goes to plan. With the exception of The Market Man and Breedsbreeze I haven’t been overly impressed with any of the English trained staying novices, and Breedsbreeze was a long way behind Trafford Lad in the Ballymore last year even if he didn’t run to form on the day.
I don’t think Siegemaster will beat Trafford Lad at Leopardstown unless the ground comes up absolutely bottomless. I know there were valid excuses for Siegemaster the last day but I think Trafford Lad would have beaten him anyway. Trafford Lad was also giving him 6lbs at Punchestown.
Forpadydeplasterer really stepped up from his last run. He’ll win decent races over two miles this season if he stays sound. Tranquil Sea was very disappointing. Looked very promising first time out but the fences at Fairyhouse are a lot more imposing than those at Mallow and he didn’t jump well at all. I know he had a small niggly problem before the Supreme Novices so it’ll be interesting if anything comes to light over the next few days. It might just have been the ground though as his best run last season was on quick ground.
Typical- Trafford Lad was very impressive over an inadequate trip,But people persist to knock him. He is at the moment the best Novice Chaser around over a distance. No one can dispute that.
What really gets to me is that if Willy Mullins Or Noel Meade trained this lad ye would be all saying how he looks a star in the making,well he is and is a real live contender for the Sun Alliance Chase and in deed a Gold Cup horse for 2010.
I agree Trafford Lad looks the best of the Irish at the moment. ForPaddy wont last 3m though, which will hopefully mean he’ll find easier races.
I love people who have opinions like "If he jumps better, he might win"….
echoes of Kauto Star are ringing in my ears
Trafford lad……I like the name. He sounds like a Cheltenham winner does that count?
Typical- Trafford Lad was very impressive over an inadequate trip,But people persist to knock him. He is at the moment the best Novice Chaser around over a distance. No one can dispute that.
What really gets to me is that if Willy Mullins Or Noel Meade trained this lad ye would be all saying how he looks a star in the making,well he is and is a real live contender for the Sun Alliance Chase and in deed a Gold Cup horse for 2010.
Gigginstown,
I don’t agree with you, and how do you know he will get 3m, and he is not guaranteed to go for the Sun Alliance, Sheehy stated he might go for the Powers Gold Cup at the grand national meeting at Fairyhouse, which is over 2m 4f.
JohnJ.
I agree Trafford Lad looks the best of the Irish at the moment. ForPaddy wont last 3m though, which will hopefully mean he’ll find easier races.
I love people who have opinions like "If he jumps better, he might win"….
Underscore,
These horses are all novice chasers, of course they may improve as the season goes on, its not totally out of the question that they can do this.
JohnJ.
Take it from me he will DEFINITELY run in the Sun Alliance Novice Chase. 3 miles will not be a problem to him. Was a fence infront in a Point to Point when he sliped up after the last.
I agree that the RSA is a difficult race to call at the moment but some of the horses mentioned are much better ante post bets than others if thats your thing (it is mine).
There are basically two populations of horses, one in Ireland and one in England with virtually no collateral chase form, there is quite a bit of hurdle form from last year.
Virtually every Irish horse seems to have two possible targets but Trafford Lad seems the best (ante post) bet as he is currently predominant and looks a more likely RSA candidate. ForPady’ is such an imposing horse physically that I think there is a temptation to assume he will be much better over fences and much better over a trip, that may be the case but maybe he just isn’t as good as TL.
Of the english challengers three standout Breedsbreeze, doubtful stayer for me but his stable has an abundance of riches in the Arkle but the stayers have all been beaten or failed in one way or another so he may end up going for the wrong race imho. The Market Man talented, fragile and given his speed not yet fully committed to the staying trip…not an AP play.
Finally there is Ballyfitz who stands out for me as the ante post bet.
Firstly he has the best actually form in England, it was over course and distance of RSA, he has been committed to the race already, he is a festival winner on the Old Course and he is still available at 14/1.
So a very tough race (hence 12/1 the field) but a stand out ante post prospect for me.When I was watching live I thought Northern Alliance might be starting to struggle when he came down but looking at it on TV later he was creeping closer under a paint-scraping ride from Timmy and must have been involved. The fact that he now qualifies for a handicap mark over fences might not be lost on Mr Martin but he’s worthy of respect wherever he turns up, especially on slighlty better ground.
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