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Aran Concerto must be doubtful given he’s 4-1 to back on BF: perhaps Noel reckons this might come a bit soon? Tranquil will start fav if he misses the gig.
I’ve taken Trafford Lad at 5’s
TL just looked every bit the chase horse last time out and Punchestown over 2m6f and whilst this is a 2f drop in trip I think this will suit the horse perfectly. There are question marks over the horse, particularly the fact this is a step up in quality, but Trafford Lad has shown much promise over the jumps this year.
With a clear round I personally cant see Trafford Lad getting beaten here. Tranquil Sea is the danger if Trafford Lad doesnt have a good round.
I have to agree with you Halfway that the 5/1 looks too big. I’m sure plenty will disagree with me but I thought he was impressive at Punchestown the last day. Dusty said afterwards that everything that could have gone wrong with him on the day, did go wrong (ie. keen early on, in front too soon), and he still won giving weight away all round. I accept that there were valid excuses for Siegemaster’s run but I’m not sure he’d have beaten Trafford Lad anyway.
The drop back in trip is a slight concern. I personally think the horse will be seen to best effect over three miles, but they should go a decent clip and ground conditions will ensure it’s a good test.
My doubt about Trafford Lad is that he looked like he’d be much happier left-handed the last day. He wasn’t as bad as Siegemaster but he definitely lugged left- you could say it was greenness or because he didn’t like being in front but if he does it on Sunday it’ll be like a 7lbs penalty.
Aran Concerto wasn’t declared this morning, 8 runners.
Pity Aran Concerto isn’t running. Thankfully it’s nothing to do with his old injury as Noel confirmed this morning.
This can be an attritional race and one I would avoid if I had a decent novice chaser. Forpaddy, Trafford Lad and Northern Alliance may well all be better suited to going left-handed. At 20’s+ the pair, I’d prefer to take a chance with Casey Jones, who is not the strongest of finishers but is a strong traveller for whom the trip is right and has plenty of experience and the one he beat the last day, Golden Sword (in Cooldine’s colours) who has soft ground form in France and is interestingly pitched in here by Mullins without having won a novice chase.
Would love to know your reasoning behind saying Northern Alliance is better left-handed- nothing in his form or to my eyes the way he’s jumped so far indicates a bias either way- indeed he’s a very straight jumper for a novice, IMO.
Arguably Northern Alliance’s two best runs, at Punchestown last time out and in the Galway Hurdle, have been right handed. Don’t think he’ll have any trouble around Fairyhouse.
Anyone else worried about whether we’ll get the go ahead tomorrow. It’s been absolutely freezing all day and it’s supposed to get even colder tonight.
Imperial,
While it is quite cold, I don’t think it is as cold as last night, so fingers crossed it goes ahead, one of my favourite Irish meetings.
JohnJ
If they raced today, I reckon they’ll race tomorrow- whether we’ll be able to see anything is another thing entirely…..thinking of putting a man out on the course for the in-running! What price another Caughoo?
BTW if anyone on here is going and fancies meeting up then PM me.When Northern Alliance started to show improved form in the spring he won at Leopardstown before being beaten twice going RH (although going close in defeat both times). He then won at Killarney and I fancied him for the Galway Hurdle after that but he didn’t just seem to travel as as sweetly as he did before (again possibly due to track/ground) and hung-in behind the front two before the last, ending up on the rail as far as I remember. I didn’t see his last race but the formbook comment says he hung-right after the last. I’m far from an expert on the subject, but he does seem to carry his tail a little awkwardly as well which may sometimes indicate a preference.
Really looking forward to this one guess 6/1 Paddy was a bit of a steal pricewise but I don’t think anyone can be ultra confident about the result. With Tranquil, Northern A, Trafford and Paddy lining up it looks a cracker and the best novice chase of the season so far. The winner will have few peers in novice company that-s for sure
A very taking performance by Trafford Lad.
He jumped well throughout and once given the initiative, he saw the race out really well on very testing ground.
He jumped to the left on a number of occasions, so you’d expect further improvement on a left-handed track. He can handle any surface.
Forpadydeplasterer ran a solid race and will be better on good gound. He’ll struggle to reverse placings if they renew rivalry at Cheltenham, but there’s further improvement to come on what was only his seventh start.
I wasn’t very impressed with Tranquil Sea’s fencing. He was tidy and economical with his front end, but his back end was too high on a few occasions and I think he’ll drop his hind legs in a fence or two at Cheltenham.
The SunAlliance is an open contest this season, so I won’t be in a rush to back any horse AP at the moment.
Very good performance and someone on here backed him at huge odds for the Arkle,,,,,can’t remeer who but I bet thatput a smile on his face.
I’m curious to see how the bookies will react for as far as I can see thiis is the oly decent trial so far.
12/1 or better and you would just have to back him ew
Cannot see anything in that race bothering the novice chasers across the water. Wonder when we will see Fiveforthree over fences, maybe he or Cooldine are the Irish hopes for the Sun Alliance.
JohnJ
Cannot see anything in that race bothering the novice chasers across the water. Wonder when we will see Fiveforthree over fences, maybe he or Cooldine are the Irish hopes for the Sun Alliance.
JohnJ
About as strong a Drinmore as I can remember, only got beat by Irish novices last season, bred to get three miles standing on his head and jumps well….bizarre to think he could not "bother" anything across the water. I personally think one or two novices might be better than him (even including some that finished behind him) but bar The Market Man I do not see anything that impressive in the UK.
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