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Below is in response to a request for the methodology behind the assertion in "Winning on Betfair for Dummies" that drifters do perfectly well:
Winning On Betfair For Dummies, by Jack Houghton:
A Betfair study looked at a sample of 65,000 horses competing in 2005.
19% of the horses that drifted significantly in the betting went on to win. The result is only slightly less than the 22% of horses whose odds had shortened dramatically in the betting.
Most importantly, if you had placed £10 on all the horses, you’d have lost £3,000 on the horses that had shortened in the betting and yet won over £2,000 on the drifters.
How did we work this out?
– We included every single horse that had run in Britain under either code of UK racing between 01/01/05 and 26/09/05
– We took the the price matched on each horse 2 hours before the off along with the "Betfair SP" (The Betfair SP takes the weighted average price in the last minute before the off)
– We then categorised each horse as either a “drifterâ€Thanks for that Pru .. it makes sense really, the market simply over correcting itself.
Any clarification at what price the notional bets were placed. Was it the Betfair SP?
That would be my interpretation.
It is horses that have "steamed" or "drifted", not those who subsequently "steam" or "drift". Backing horses at 5.0 that had been 3.0 was better in profit terms than backing horses at 3.0 that had been 5.0. Backing the latter at 5.0 would presumably have been better still!
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