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I very much doubt if this qualifies as a “Big Race”, but then again
not much does todayHubrisko was once owned by none other than Mrs Ricci and trained by
Willie Mullins. His last race for that partnership was a resounding win
at Killarney. I’m not sure what happened (maybe someone can fill that in)
but he was off for the next 463 days before being transferred to Harry
Derham. Obviously he was going to need his first race and there was the
danger that he might not be the same horse again. What caught my eye was
coming to the last couple of fences he was in with the no hope brigade,
and not seen again on camera (I didn’t see the race live) however he left
those out the back and finished a hd off 6th. That tells me that he still
has a bit to offer.Bear in mind that this was a horse that went off 6/4 fav in the Grade 2
Ballymore Novices Hurdle in Nov 22 at Cheltenham (finished 4th to Hermes
Allen) which was a much better race than this. There are other bits of
form which show he was pretty decent in his day. He’s given 134 by the
handicapper, which obviously because of his long spell off the track and
7th last time wouldn’t raise that, but his last win, in his last race for
Mullins, he trounced the field (2nd was 13L back) and ran off 137. If he
is half the horse he used to be then the 28/1 (bet365) seems a decent E/W
bet. I reckon he wont go off much over 20s, or if the stable fancy him,
considerably less.3.31 FFos Las – Hubrisko 28/1
I can see your thinking BigG. But although I believe Derham is one of the best trainers around, he isn’t Mullins… And after so long off must have been something serious and doubtful Hubrisko will ever be as good. Even so, at the price might have been tempted myself had this race been around 3 miles. His best races over fences were around 3m and that Derham reappearance was 2 1/2. With a more fancied Derham runner in here I suspect they might be looking at bringing his handicap mark down a bit for future targets.
The obvious one on form is the fav, Ostrava Du Berlais. Progressive and conditions should suit… if all is well. Venitia is seemingly mostly out of form so is little more than a saver. Now easy to back…
The other progressive horse Beat Box’s trainer is also (considering his usual strike rate) in poor form. 1 winner – all the rest not getting within 8 lengths of the winner – and 4 PU’s from 18 runners this year. Maybe why Beat Box and Cherie D’Am have been easy to back. Salamanca Bay is from the same Skelton yard and they seem to be bringing him along for a future target… Unless the betting tells otherwise.
I tipped Triple Trade last week and he shortened up before the meeting was abandoned. However, that was at 2m4f. I was originally against him today because it’s only 2m. But with plenty of pace in the race and the going looks proper heavy to me – this is likely to take plenty of getting. So had a late saver.
Keep Running keeps running from the front, but there are other possible pace horses in the race. Hubrisko, Beat Box and Salamanca Bay. Might not get the run of the race this time and a specialist 2 miler. Conditions probably suit other horses more.
Interesting Art Of Diplomacy has been backed. It maybe a test of stamina, not sure it’ll make it enough of one for him though.
My main bet though is Hubrisko’s stable companion, Sir Psycho. Harry Derham is in good form and a test of stamina at this distance should be in his favour. As might the pace in the race, usually held up. Should come on for his reappearance. Maybe I should have made him the only bet and do him each way?
Value Is Everything
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