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AS a precaution Zoso I try and get as much info on the other horses in the race a horse is ran in……..to try and make sure they were t least half decent……..horses can tend to look better than they actually are if racing against moderate animals………look at that big boat Denman a classic example
Denman was visually impressive racing against trees, however when he races against Kauto Star I am expecting Denman and his sloppy jumping to look like the tree.
I like watching racing but I noticed a couple of years ago when I had the races on the surround sound speakers I used to get too caught up and pumped up with it and bet irrationally if results went against me, strange but I realsied after a couple of weekend’s of doing my dough
All the posts so far have talked about watching what individual horses do – for me watching racing is just as much about watching the shape of the race and thus being able to relate that to what’s in the form book.
Did they go quick and get stretched out early on, did they slow down and bunch up at halfway – on the flat, did they race in one group etc.
Combined with that is watching how the track is riding – are front runners doing well, where are the jockeys opting to go etc.
All these things may get mentioned in the form book, but the comments, inevitably, have to be subjective, as compared to the specifics of winning distances. And the information acquired from watching may be useful later at the same meeting, even on the same day, well before the form book has been printed.
But there’s no doubt that you can still see thingsabout specific horses that don’t get into the form book at all – to give an example, I was interested in a hurdler at Uttoxeter on Saturday called Billy Murphy (3:20) – he’d finished one place ahead of my Power Shared at Fontwell. At Uttoxeter, he set off up front and by my count, made at least six significant jumping errors, paddling through hurdles, landing flat footed etc. That he managed to still finish third in a big field that was well strung out, suggests he has far more ability than would be suggsted by the official form book report ‘chased leaders, went second 6th, one pace from 3 out’.
AP
Can’t disagree with you AP. Take a look further back in the field and keep an eye on Young Cuthbert who wasn’t off a yard.
PU in his only other race this season when probaly needed the run badly he’s had a nice confidence booster and will strip plenty fit enough next time out.
If he runs in a bad chase somewhere soon, he could start at a very big price and be placed or if very lucky could even win. Wouldn’t be having the kitchen sink on him but definately worth a few bob EW in the right circumastances IMO..
Hi gang
its a daft question…….. better one wud be…….
"Can you thrust yourself?"
byefrom
carlisleI think watching the shape of the race on the all weather is crucial. The formbook goes out the window very quickly if races aren’t run to suit. Also seeing how the track is riding is very important, if its been deep harrowed the bias to front runners can be massive. A changed draw bias and golden highways can also be picked on turf flat by watching the early races on a card carefully.
Sometimes little things outside the race itself can be very interesting. For example the look on Rubys face and his bullish nature in the post race interview (still on the horse) when Kauto Star won his comeback race at Aintree was very revealing. He rides a lot of good horses and very rarely gets carried away, he did that day….
Watching races is absolutely imperative in my opinion, especially when you don’t have the time (or not clever enough in my case) to compile your own ratings. Visual evidence is the only thing I use and I probably watch 95% of UK horse races from my living room.
Even more so, I will watch the races again later that evening and make my own ‘comments in running’ for horses that caught my eye.
Mike
… to give an example, I was interested in a hurdler at Uttoxeter on Saturday called Billy Murphy (3:20) – he’d finished one place ahead of my Power Shared at Fontwell. At Uttoxeter, he set off up front and by my count, made at least six significant jumping errors, paddling through hurdles, landing flat footed etc. That he managed to still finish third in a big field that was well strung out, suggests he has far more ability than would be suggsted by the official form book report ‘chased leaders, went second 6th, one pace from 3 out’.
Watch this start odds-on NTO with every forum member falling over themselves to get on!
I think watching the shape of the race on the all weather is crucial. The formbook goes out the window very quickly if races aren’t run to suit. Also seeing how the track is riding is very important, if its been deep harrowed the bias to front runners can be massive. A changed draw bias and golden highways can also be picked on turf flat by watching the early races on a card carefully.
Sometimes little things outside the race itself can be very interesting. For example the look on Rubys face and his bullish nature in the post race interview (still on the horse) when Kauto Star won his comeback race at Aintree was very revealing. He rides a lot of good horses and very rarely gets carried away, he did that day….
So can little snippits… like what AP said when Ruby went to the front in the King George he said Ruby was shouting Whao boy!!! at Kauto Star AP and then said you would need to be riding Pegasus to beat the horse…….that sort of thing coming from the best Jockey in the coutry is some compliment.
AP,
How sure are you that Billy Murphy won’t make those mistakes again next time?Ginge
Value Is EverythingGinger,
Not sure at all and I woudn’t necessarily regard him as one to back – it was just an example of how the formbook sometimes doesn’t tell even half the story.
AP
Fist I have followed Young Cuthbert since he first ran as he was owned by a relative of mine. He is a half brother to Young Kenny and was trained by Jessica Harrington in his early days. He also owned Young Claude who was another half brother trained by Peter Beaumont. Both have turned out useless though Claude did win a race at 20/1 when beating stable companion Macs Joy.
I will be very surprised if Cuthbert wins another race.Certainly looks a bit one paced in his earlier races when I looked back at them. Wasn’t really thinking about him winning was more looking to betting him EW in a bad race at 200/1
Some really bad races out there and he certainly looks a well balanced horse unlikely to fall….as I said I wouldn’t have the kitchen sink on but if I see him in a bad race a place will be fine fror me. 100 quid ew 40/1 for a place is good beer money
Thanks for the info on him
I had another thought on this today Zoso, which I think links in to what you’re saying: In terms of racing I adopt a "goldfish memory" approach (fans of Monty Python will understand) in that each race is a fresh page, with no preconceptions based on what I’ve backed before. I don’t "follow" horses and it’s unusual if I back the same horse more than once in sucessive races. I think waht you’ve said is right in that punters can fall into the trap of giving too much weight to what they’ve witnessed or backed before. Are you still here Z?
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