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During Royal Ascot there was endless debate on the norfolk, the coventry etc many of which were won by outsiders
I’m sure we all love betting on two year old races but does anyone actually win on them? Especially here I’m talking about maiden races, do you play in them, and if you do what’s your strategy?
Personally speaking I’m feeling that if I just left all two year old races alone in principle and bet on races with more established form, I’d do a lot better
I’m a jumps fan but agree with the equivalent: when will I learn to leave bumpers and maiden hurdles alone?? If I ever get around to starting a proper P/L thread on DLAP, I should put them in a separate thread just so I can prove to myself what a money burner they are in my hands. I suppose part of it is greed and vanity on my part: I want to get on a horse at a juicy price before it’s known to be good; and I want the smugness of being the first to spot the next big thing. Kind of similar to liking a band before they were cool. If only my next big things turned out to be any good…
I’m a jumps fan but agree with the equivalent: when will I learn to leave bumpers and maiden hurdles alone?? If I ever get around to starting a proper P/L thread on DLAP, I should put them in a separate thread just so I can prove to myself what a money burner they are in my hands. I suppose part of it is greed and vanity on my part: I want to get on a horse at a juicy price before it’s known to be good; and I want the smugness of being the first to spot the next big thing. Kind of similar to liking a band before they were cool. If only my next big things turned out to be any good…
I read an interesting article once that was made by these harvard professors about how people prefer potential over actual achievement. I only found out about it because Nick Mordin mentioned it.
The article basically said that if you have a champion and someone trying to become a champion, most people will find the person trying to become a champion more interesting because there are two possibilities, either they will become a champion or they don’t, whereas with the champion you already know what happens.
I love two year old races judge but it has taken a while for me to start winning on them because there is so much to take in especially if they are running for the first time.
You need to take into account the horses pedigree first and foremost to work out if it will go on the ground or stay the distance. Then you need to look at it’s conformation, some are sprinter types, generally defined as short backed (close coupled) and stayers are generally long in the back. That may give you a clue as to which horses will need a little further in distance…and so it goes on.
I do find it fascinating, mainly because I love to see the progeny of famous sires like Dubawi, Galileo, Frankel etc., taking their first steps on a racecourse.
One things for sure there is no better feeling than sorting out the winner of a 2yo Maiden especially if it returns double figures..and it can be done but not from a newspaper or a tipster just from putting in the time to study the race and then going to the paddock or racing tv provider to see how those horses have turned out on the day,many will be showing signs of greenness in the paddock and that’s where, hopefully, you’ll spot your potential winner…good luck judge.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...No, in short.
I usually only ever bet on maidens (be they whatever age group) if I am actually in attendance at the racecourse as they’re a cast iron way to lose money in my opinion. That isn’t to say I don’t find them fascinating, as it’s always interesting seeing how horses perform in their first battle, I just don’t like betting in them.
Later in the season, I’ll put some money on the 2 year old races as I’ll have more of a feel for the form, but I treat 2 year old races (punting wise) the same way I do novice hurdles run before Christmas on the jumps; tentatively.
One angle on two year old races is to study the trainers modus operandi
Often the Post will comment like ‘yard not noted for first time out winners’ etc ………..make a note of these comments and build up a library of notes about each trainer
The old B2YOR site was invaluable for this with seemingly hundreds of ways of analysing trainers records for 2yo ……….no longer being updated but there’s about 10 years of stats on there
which yards put out first time out winners
who’s horses come on a ton for a run
which trainers use certain courses for their better 2yoI haven’t kept this up as I’ve moved on but here’s the first few lines of my trainerfile from a few years ago. I had about 150 trainers on my list with new ones being added all the time
Allen, Conrad – not noted 2yo but had a big price debut winner 2012
Appleby, Charlie – come on for run ?
Appleby, Michael – not known for 2yo winners but usu improve for debut
Bailey, Alan – odd 2yo winner, 9% since 2009
Baker, George – not noted 2yo except at Yarmouth ! 4% debut wins
Balding, Andrew – come on for debut run and keep improving with runs
Barron, David – can get winning debut, good record with 2yo (abt 18% win)this would be constantly updated
I suppose the advantage of this approach is that you’re often weighing up a race with different criteria to ‘the market’ so you have an angle that might not be reflected in the prices , ie opposing short priced ones based on the trainer and backing bigger priced ones that the market might have overlooked
Of course I probably lost money even so !
I like jac’s approach of studying hard and looking for the value.
backing at short prices it seems very difficult. Especially as a lot of the time you have to judge whether a horse that’s never raced before is any good, which is surely to a large degree just guess work.
Take the first race at Windsor last night. The favourite was the roger varian trained keynote which got sent off 11-4. It’s welll-bred, broke well and ended up finishing last. You don’t even get a run for your money.
And the numbers are against you. Most maiden races have a lot of runners. If you are backing at short prices the numbers are against you, which I feel is the case with horse racing in general, overall it’s tough to win if you back shorties and it’s probably even tougher if you back shorties in two year old races.
I remember when I used to listen to the racing radio, one of the things they used to bang on about was the poor returns to a level stake when backing a short priced favourite in a maiden race if it was having it’s second run, so say for example a horse that finished second in it’s first run while in the process looking very promising, it’s sent off evens for it’s next run.
A lot of the times they’d get beat and the value was very poor, mainly because it would either bounce from it’s first run, or it would run into a promising unraced horse, or the value had just gone because everyone hyped it up from it’s first run and the world and his wife was on. It’s easy to say “well just take these sort of horses on” but when they run on and look promising the gut reaction is just to think “they’ll win next time, I’ll back it at any price”
Yes.
Perhaps you could care to elaborate?
For Maidens:
Over the years – Yes. Last year – No – don’t think I judged the value right.
I am very selective which maiden races to bet and rarely have a 2 year old maiden bet before July.
As with all horses, is the trainer in form?
As betting propositions normally concentrate on those who’ve had a run. I’ve got the Timeform TRW figures. The particular race’s ratings each of the last 5 years winners achieved, together with the average rating. If there’s an odd one out (either unusually good or unusually bad rating) I’ll discard that winner and go by average of the other 4. For me – it is usually only a betting race if the Timeform top or second top rated is within 10 lbs of the average race winner. Exception being those from a trainer with a particularly poor first time out record together with an exceptional second time out record – if (considering that record) ran reasonably first time. These can improve massively second time out.
Hopefully the going will be same or similar to its previous form. If it isn’t, then if possible eiter watch it go to post or previous runs. If showing a rounded pounding action with front legs it’s likely to prefer give in the ground. If pointing its toe is likely to go well on a sound surface. Seeing the particular horse’s action is better, but if unable to get relevent knowledge I’ll look up the sire’s race record and progeny, ditto dam and sometimes dam’s sire. If the race distance is different I’ll judge it by both breeding and temperament. One that is more relaxed than usual will probably stay further than breeding suggests; one more exitable probably won’t stay as far.
It is possible to have a good idea too of how much threat comes from unraced horses. If the Timeform top rated is very near or above the race average then obviously an unraced horse will need to put up a performance better than the average race winner. If those who’ve run before have come nowhere near the average TRW figure the race is likely to go to an unraced horse. Also, does it come from a trainer with a good first time out strike rate with 2 year olds? Is it fit in the paddock? With particular attention to tummy, gaskins and a clearly defined question mark (on the backside and down the leg). Shiny coat a positive, dull or sweating coat a negative. Young or inexperienced horses can be “green”, and this can be a big negative, showing they might not be ready to show their true ability. The word can cover a multitude of sins. Most noticeable is being vocal in the paddock (whinnieing), talking to its fellow students. Looking around a little is fine, looking too much at the crowds – negative, thinking to himself “what’s this racing game about”? Lethargic animals, seemingly uninterested, walking slowly, with head to the floor, probably won’t have learnt enough. “Coltish”, basically a colt (young male) with an erection. Has his mind on other things and may not be able to give a good account of himself. If possible, look at young horses set off to post. Some need the jockey to bump his bum up and down on its back, to encourage his mount to gallop. These often start slowly in the race itself and/or take time to realise what is required; finishing well when the penny finally drops but all too late. On the other hand, one that is difficult to control in the paddock can be too free to post, having little energy left for the race. It is wise to make note of green horses, as they may be able to show abnormal improvement next time, particularly if learning from their experience and not showing the same greenness in the paddock and to post…
…Using all the above to judge whether the price is worth taking.
Value Is EverythingThanks ginger. I’m assuming you mean that you are on the course when going into this kind of detail pre-race.
Also could you tell me how you find historical data for each race, what the racing post rating of the previous winners were, etc?
Nice post, Mark.
I recall getting quite an early lesson in the perils of 2-y-o- betting when I gathered with fellow punters in May 1970 to listen to the Salisbury Stakes where the very exciting Piggott-ridden Fireside Chat (2/9) was expected to slaughter the field. We ended up shocked and puzzled at the easy defeat of the favourite by a newcomer…Mill Reef.
Agree with the pre parade ring and paddock clues
Denaar was walking around like a senior pro when I was Newbury on Lockinge day whilst the rest were very uneasy, sweating and getting wound up by the behaviour of Hannon’s other runner that day Rogue who lived up to his name by bucking, whinnieing and being a right handful for his handler, how Denaar drifted from 6/4 to 2/1 off the back of the pre-lims was a strange one.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Thanks ginger. I’m assuming you mean that you are on the course when going into this kind of detail pre-race.
Also could you tell me how you find historical data for each race, what the racing post rating of the previous winners were, etc?
Yes, although seldom go to the races these days and my maiden race bets are few and far between these days.
Afraid historical data is Timeform stuff, Judge. Doubt if Racing Post do it.
Timeform give the performance rating achieved by the last 5 winners of all non-handicaps, including maidens.Value Is EverythingTalking of Coltish, I recall one of Henry Cecil’s runners, Awesome Wells going around the paddock sporting a “Fifth Leg”
My Mother-In-Law had backed him and asked me if this turn of events was a negative. When I stated that it was, she asked why? I turned around and said “Well if nothing else, he could trip over it!”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Genuinely speaking – no. Whereas novice chases are my best betting races over the jumps. 2 year old races on the flat are pretty similar I’d say but yet I’m a loser on the flat for the youngsters.
However, as seen on the individual threads, my only lumpy bet on the two year old races during Ascot went to September in the Chesham with a bit at 25/1 for the Oaks as well.
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