- This topic has 23 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
If that were the case, why doesn’t the handicapper make similar allowances in races such as the Scottish and Welsh Nationals, Eider Chase etc.?
It seems crazy that he is allowed to effectively ‘play God’ for this one race every year.
Apologies for taking so long to get back on this one. The reason similar allowances aren’t made in the other marathons is that we aren’t comparing like with like. The Welsh national, for example, is only 3m5f. That’s a sprint by comparison. The Scottish National and the Eider are only 4m on easier tracks with easier fences.
At Aintree, the nature of the track means they are galloping without breathers round bends for much longer than on more conventional tracks. That requires more stamina. The Aintree fences are bigger and broader than elsewhere, requiring more energy – therefore stamina – to negotiate all of them at the stronger gallop. Every pound carried in the last half-mile in the Grand National requires more stamina than in the last half-mile of the other marathon races. That’s why the handicapper makes the allowance for them.
This has always been my understanding anyway but I see this debate is also taking place on other fora so I intend writing directly to Mr Smith to ask him to publicise his rationale in treating this one race differently.
If he says it is simply to tempt better class horses to run then I will concede he is being unfair but he isn’t the type to act on a whim.
I’ll let you know if he replies.
Apologies for taking so long to get back on this one. The reason similar allowances aren’t made in the other marathons is that we aren’t comparing like with like. The Welsh national, for example, is only 3m5f. That’s a sprint by comparison. The Scottish National and the Eider are only 4m on easier tracks with easier fences.
At Aintree, the nature of the track means they are galloping without breathers round bends for much longer than on more conventional tracks. That requires more stamina. The Aintree fences are bigger and broader than elsewhere, requiring more energy – therefore stamina – to negotiate all of them at the stronger gallop. Every pound carried in the last half-mile in the Grand National requires more stamina than in the last half-mile of the other marathon races. That’s why the handicapper makes the allowance for them.
If you look, the average speed (seconds per furlong) is faster at Aintree than Chepstow. Therefore, Welsh Grand National and Eider are usually more stamina sapping than Aintree Maurice (not less). Welsh Grand National is usually run on softer ground and is more undulating. Unlike the Welsh race, the English National is (unless on very soft ground) not an out-and-out stayer’s race. Horses like Emperor’s Choice and Benfolio would not have much chance at Aintree. When a race is run at a faster speed (despite the longer trip) it can not be as stamina sapping.
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Maurice wrote:</div>
Apologies for taking so long to get back on this one. The reason similar allowances aren’t made in the other marathons is that we aren’t comparing like with like. The Welsh national, for example, is only 3m5f. That’s a sprint by comparison. The Scottish National and the Eider are only 4m on easier tracks with easier fences.At Aintree, the nature of the track means they are galloping without breathers round bends for much longer than on more conventional tracks. That requires more stamina. The Aintree fences are bigger and broader than elsewhere, requiring more energy – therefore stamina – to negotiate all of them at the stronger gallop. Every pound carried in the last half-mile in the Grand National requires more stamina than in the last half-mile of the other marathon races. That’s why the handicapper makes the allowance for them.
If you look, the average speed (seconds per furlong) is faster at Aintree than Chepstow. Therefore, Welsh Grand National and Eider are usually more stamina sapping than Aintree Maurice (not less). Welsh Grand National is usually run on softer ground and is more undulating. Unlike the Welsh race, the English National is (unless on very soft ground) not an out-and-out stayer’s race. Horses like Emperor’s Choice and Benfolio would not have much chance at Aintree. When a race is run at a faster speed (despite the longer trip) it can not be as stamina sapping.
Is this correct? There is probably some formula to calculate this involving T (Time), D (Distance), GF (Ground Factor – Good etc) and GU (Ground undulation), but how the hell you wok this out I’ve no idea
Maybe you even have to factor in temperature (as the warmer it is the more stamina sapping) But if it went on time and distance alone, then surely if you are running faster for a longer distance and for a longer time, this will be more energy sapping. Formula would be D + T or D * T. Aintree 4.4375 miles, 8.98 minutes. Chepstow 3.6875 Miles, 8.10 minutes. But I agree you do have to factor in the conditions.Not sure what the formula would be Homer…
But I’d have thought it obvious that if conditions are more stamina sapping then the average speed must decrease to compensate.Or to put it the other way around: If a race is more stamina sapping why would a horse speed up?
Value Is EverythingThe assertion (When a race is run at a faster speed (despite the longer trip) it can not be as stamina sapping) is wrong. The faster you run the more energy you expend therefore over a distance the more stamina you require (but most will run out of energy long before that and pull up).
Ever tried running on a treadmill at an even 8 mph? How long did you last? Try it if you haven’t. Then up it to 9mph and see how long you last.
Why do think Broadway Buffalo stopped as if shot late on in the race on Saturday when at Cheltenham he was finishing strongly? He was reserving energy – stamina – last month by racing conservatively. On Saturday he was given a more prominent ride and fell apart. He ran out of energy/stamina.
The average speed per furlong at Aintree is slower anyway. Plus, there are fewer bends on the GN course so the pace doesn’t slow up as much as at sharper tracks. The round mile at Ascot, for example, is slower than the straight one. Despite this, the pace is still slower at Aintree.
Here are the old Standard times for the marathon trips at a number of courses. I’ve been using these times (tweaked for the subsequent variations in distances) rather than the current ones which are inaccurate and still evolving. (I was losing money when I switched to them and got back in front when I went back to the old times.)
Aintree 4m 4f: 9m 2s (15.47 spf)
Ayr 4m 1f: 8m 6s (14.72)
Bangor 4m 1f: 8m 11s (14.87)
Carlisle 3m 4f: 7m 2s (15.07 – a notoriously ‘stiff’ course)
Catterick 3m 6f: 7m 47s (15.56)
Cheltenham (O) 4m: 7m 56s (14.87)
Cheltenham (N) 4m 1f: 8m 11s (14.87)
Chepstow 3m 5.5f: 7m 20s (14.91)
Exeter 3m 6f: 7m 20s (14.66)That’s just A-E. Catterick has the reputation of being a very sharp track – lots of sharp turns – hence the slower average speed.
Newcastle, since you mention it, 4m 1f: 8m 16s (15.03)
Only 0.44 spf of a difference with Aintree, I hear you say. That’s equivalent to more or less two lengths. Per furlong. Over 32f that’s over 60 lengths. 180-ish yards. Not far off a furlong. That’s how far ahead they’d be at Newcastle at the 4m mark compared to Aintree.
Equations ain’t my strong point, but looking at it from a physiology perspective, if a horse is affected by weight the farther it travels (perfectly logical to me), then those at the bottom of the handicap suffer as much as those at the top.
If a horse’s mark decrees it should carry 11.10 in a race, then why should it not do so irrespective of the distance of the race? That mark has been set in relation to the horse’s established ability – not at a trip or a track – but on its achievements as perceived by the handicapper.
Nailing where that ability lies is the difficult issue. We say horses have a ‘big engine’, but what does that mean? Some champions have been shown to have oversize hearts. Perhaps sprinters have fast-twitch muscle fibres and stayers slow-twitch? Frankel’s conformation undoubtedly helped him in that he tracked very straight, optimising the energy produced by his rear end. What else? Feed? The skills of his trainer or jockey? Whatever, it is all just lumped in as ability and graded by the handicapper. Does a big strong horse carry weight better than a much lighter-boned animal rated 20lbs higher? In practice, perhaps, but it makes no difference to its mark. The small horse is still superior to the large one.
So, whether a horse carries 10.10 or 11.10 in the National, the extremity of the test should affect both equally, in relation to their marks, should it not?
If the handicapper decides that in one race a year he will alter his methods in order to give every horse a fairer chance in a particularly extreme event, should he not favour horses who have failed to win at 3 miles or farther? Should he be kinder to horses who do not jump well? That, to me, would be logical if the objective were to try and bring horses closer together.
Instead, he favours the classy horses with proven ability at high level. I can see no logic in that. If a fast run race saps stamina, it does so for all involved, The ‘ability’ (however you try and quantify it) of those higher in the weights should offset their weight burden in the same way it does for other races.
Of course, this now makes perfect sense. Top weight in say the Hennessey is 11-12. Top weight in the National is 11-10. Presumably this is to offset the extra distance. Lowest weight you can carry in either race is 10-0. In theory therefore the higher rated horses already have an advantage in the National, as there are more horses running covering a more compacted handicap. Therefore there is a greater chance more of the lower rated horses will be out of the handicap. The handicapper then gives a further advantage by lowering the top rated horses further. Many Clouds should have been odds-on fav for the National
It needed to be put in back and white, but Joe has posted the absolute bleeding obvious. Cheers Joe. Just wish you had posted this before the race and I’d have had the life savings on.
Maybe you even have to factor in temperature (as the warmer it is the more stamina sapping) 
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.